COP28’s Landmark Climate Deal, Explained

On Dec. 13, the world made history as 198 countries at COP28 agreed that it is time to end the fossil fuel era.

The final deal at the global climate summit in Dubai came after two weeks of contentious negotiations. It marks the first time in the history of the annual meeting that fossil fuels — specifically coal, oil and gas — have been explicitly mentioned and, even more consequentially, targeted to meet climate goals.

When it comes to these kinds of broad, multilateral agreements, every word counts. And to many, the Dubai agreement, while a stunning achievement, still falls short of stating that fossil fuels must be phased out to meet the challenge of climate change.

This summit took place during the hottest year on record, which has seen multiple temperature records fall. And it produced other achievements beyond the deal to move away from fossil fuels — some of which might be equally impactful.

Here are the key take-aways from the text — and what climate experts, activists and country delegates think of it.

The Beginning of the End of Fossil Fuels

COP28 was marked by a heated debate over an agreement that called for the "phaseout" or "phase-down" of fossil fuel use. The final text uses new terminology entirely.

Paragraph 28 of the agreement states that countries recognize "the need for deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in line with 1.5°C pathways," and "calls on" those countries to take a number of actions.

The key is in paragraph (d):

Transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science.

This is a radical departure from all 27 previous COP deals, and observers hailed it as such.

"For the first time in three decades of climate negotiations, the words 'fossil fuels' have made it into a COP outcome," said Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa. "We are finally naming the elephant in the room. The genie is never going back into the bottle."

United Nations Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell said as COP28 was gaveled to a close that "whilst we didn’t turn the page on the fossil fuel era in Dubai, this outcome is the beginning of the end."

At the very least, COP28 is a meaningful inflection point.

"The countries of the world leave COP28 in Dubai with a consensus to transition away from fossil fuels, and in a world full of conflict, that is progress," said the Wildlife Conservation Society's president and CEO Monica Medina, in a statement.

"This consensus may mark the beginning of the end of the road for fossil fuels."

Science Suggests It's Not Enough

The call to transition away from fossil fuels is a positive step, but many scientists and activists noted that climate change will require even more ambitious action.

"There's no question the text falls short of what science tells us is required to mitigate the existential risk climate change poses to us," said Katherine Hayhoe, the Nature Conservancy's chief scientist.

A recent U.N. report showed that the 1.5-degree target set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement requires drastic emissions cuts: 43% below 2019 levels by 2030. At present, the world is on track to cut emissions by only 2%.

"The transition away from fossil-fuel statement remains too vague, with no hard and accountable boundaries for 2030, 2040 and 2050," said Johan Rockström, an earth systems scientist and co-director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, in a statement.

Some groups in Dubai felt left out of the negotiations. The Alliance of Small Island States, a group made up of some of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world, said they were not in the room when the agreement was gaveled in.

"We are a little confused about what just happened," said AOSIS's lead negotiator Anne Rasmussen, from Samoa. The group said it would not officially object to the final text.

"We have made an incremental advancement over business as usual when what we really needed is an exponential step-change in our actions and support," Rasmussen said in Dubai.

New Energy Ambitions

Alongside the transition away from fossil fuels, the COP28 agreement offers a menu of options for countries to pursue as they make that move.

These include tripling renewable energy capacity globally by 2030; "accelerating efforts" toward elimination of coal power; accelerating the use of other zero- or low-carbon tech like nuclear power as well as carbon capture and green hydrogen; and reducing other greenhouse gas emissions like methane.

"For the first time we see renewable energy taking a prominent position, with the call for tripling renewable energy globally and doubling energy efficiency by 2030," said Wangari Muchiri, Africa director for the Global Wind Energy Council.

"This is a key step forward, despite the weak language, that renewables are key solutions for the energy transition."

The Adaptation Gap Remains Enormous

While lowering emissions and temperatures are the top priority, there is an immediate demand for adaptation — and the need is only getting more desperate.

The affect of climate change is a lived reality, and the flow of money to try and manage them is not enough. The agreement acknowledges the gap with "with serious concern" and "urges Parties to adopt a transformational approach to enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change."

Yet a separate document produced at COP28 specifically on adaptation has left some observers cold.

COP28 "fails to ensure the massive scale up of climate finance needed to ensure the action needed on mitigation and adaptation takes place as soon as possible," said Amnesty International's climate justice advisor Ann Harrison, "leaving developing countries, Indigenous Peoples, frontline communities and other marginalized groups in the lurch."

Follow the Money

All of these goals cost money, and lots of it. On Cop28's very first day, the summit agreed to "operationalize" the loss and damage fund — climate reparations for low-income countries.

Avinash Persaud, the special climate envoy to the Barbados Prime Minister said this COP would be remembered as "historic" in large part because of those shifting economic winds.

"The road to fossil fuel phase-out lies first through massive financial flows for a huge investment in renewables. Now, we have a plan to get there," he said in a statement.

But others said the numbers just aren't matching up.

"Climate loss and damage has been estimated to be $4 trillion per year. The finance promised at COP28 is just 0.0001% of that," said Joyce Kimutai, a climate scientist at Imperial College London.

But the COP28 agreement acknowledges that another $4.3 trillion must be invested in renewable energy each year through 2030, and calls for more investment.

What Comes Next?

As always, putting pen to paper does not stop the smokestacks from belching out greenhouse gas, and moving from pledge to action is the next critical step.

How the world starts to shift from fossil fuels is not clear from this agreement. The paragraph leading from the historic mention of fossil fuels says "transitional fuels can play a role" in a transition — and some critics say that could mean natural gas or biofuels, which are not renewable.

The agreement also appears to rely on carbon capture technology becoming less expensive and more scalable — something that many scientists are skeptical of. But ultimately, it will be up to the countries to act on the agreement, as there is no legally binding element.

"Countries now need to incorporate strong targets into their national commitments to shift away from fossil fuels, scale up renewables, and much more," said Ani Dasgupta, president and CEO of the World Resources Institute.

Right now, worldwide pledges to cut emissions will not stop the world warming to 1.5 degrees or even 2 degrees; instead, the Earth is on track for 2.5 to 3 degrees Celsius — a catastrophic outcome.

The next two COPs are already on the calendar, and after this year's summit, expectations will be high. COP29 will take place in Azerbaijan, while COP30 will be in Brazil.

“The climate summit in Azerbaijan next year must be one for the history books, when the world finally shifts the scale of climate finance from billions to trillions," Dasgupta said, calling this year's outcome historic.

"Despite immense pressure from oil and gas interests, high ambition countries courageously stood their ground and sealed the fate of fossil fuels."