Why the Liberty Have Been Beating the Aces Like the Aces Beat the Rest of the WNBA

Earlier in this WNBA season, we wrote about how the Las Vegas Aces were barreling toward a second straight championship and building their case to be considered the greatest team in league history — if one particular opponent didn’t stand in the way of that. But as it turns out, that opponent — the New York Liberty — has proven to be every bit the Aces’ match. They proved it again on Tuesday, as New York beat Las Vegas 82-63 to capture the Commissioner’s Cup, again serving notice that the Liberty are capable of humbling the defending champs whenever the two teams meet up.

In three games against the Liberty so far this season (including the regular season and Commissioner’s Cup Championship Game), the Aces won once — a 98-81 victory in late June while former MVP Candace Parker was healthy — but they’ve lost each of the past two matchups, without Parker, by a combined score of 181-124. 

Parker had the second-highest plus/minus in that game with a +21. But has the difference in results between these two mega powers been due to the absence of the future Hall of Famer? Or is it the chemistry that New York has built throughout the season like head coach Sandy Brondello believes?

No matter the reason, the Liberty have clearly gotten the better of the Aces in a way that is uncharacteristic to see from the defending champs. On the season as a whole, Las Vegas has a 26-2 record with a +16.1 points per game differential against every other opponent, but the Aces are 1-2 with a -13.3 differential against New York:

It is bizarre, to say the least, that the two clear-cut best teams in the WNBA are not exchanging buzzer-beating thrillers when they face off, but rather trading huge blowouts. The average margin of these games (24.7 points per game) is the second-widest for any pairing of teams in the league that have met multiple times this season, despite the gulf in talent between the clubs appearing quite narrow on paper.

Overall, New York has piled up its blowouts by outscoring Las Vegas 120-60 from beyond the arc — the Liberty are making 43% of their 3-pointers versus 29% for the Aces — and dominating the Aces defensively. New York has scored 28 more points off turnovers than the Aces, despite turning the ball over 21 more times than Las Vegas. The Liberty are also blocking nearly 10% of the Aces’ 2-point attempts.

The Liberty have shut down reigning MVP A'ja Wilson, holding her to 9.0 PPG (12.2 points below her season average) on 4-for-24 shooting (16.7%) over the past two matchups. Wilson did fare better in the Aces’ win over New York earlier in the season, scoring 16 points on 6-for-9 shooting from the field, but Las Vegas needs her to play like her usual self if they want to avoid further blowouts at the hands of the Liberty.

And the Aces must improve on the glass, where the Liberty have outrebounded them by a massive 128-79 margin during the season series. This is where Parker’s absence may be hurting Las Vegas the most: With her in the lineup for the Aces’ lone win in the season series, they were able to compete on the boards, grabbing 27 rebounds to New York’s 31. Without Parker, though, the Aces have been significantly worse on the glass, losing the rebound battle by an average of 22.5 boards per game.

While both teams are top-heavy, depth has played a significant factor through three matchups between the two championship favorites. After Tuesday’s Commissioner's Cup loss, Aces head coach Becky Hammon admitted she asks a lot of her starting five, and the team is likely to struggle when the starters have an off night.

So far, New York has capitalized on that. While the Liberty and Aces’ starting lineups have played relatively evenly (New York is +7 on points from starters), New York’s second unit comes in to expand the lead considerably. The Liberty’s bench has outscored the Aces’ reserves 70-37 in the season series, which may be the deciding factor if these teams meet in the Finals — with or without Parker.

The Aces will get another shot at their rival very soon: Las Vegas hosts New York on Thursday night at 9 p.m. ET on Prime Video. Will it be another lopsided affair? Logic says that these two powerhouses have to play a close game eventually… right? But the way things have unfolded so far this year has not followed that formula — and Las Vegas needs to prove it won’t get pushed around in this next matchup, if it wants to hold onto its status as a championship co-favorite.