Best Bets in Sports: Max Scherzer Makes His 2023 Playoff Debut

The Texas Rangers have opened the postseason with seven consecutive wins. After winning the first two games of the ALCS on the road in Houston, they return home on Wednesday night with a chance to take a 3-0 lead.

Max Scherzer will start for the Rangers after sitting out the first two postseason series with a shoulder injury. Cristian Javier will start for Houston. With their seventh consecutive ALCS appearance, the Astros are used to pressure situations. The last time the Astros played in Texas, they outscored the Rangers 39-10 in a three-game series from Sept. 4-6. The Astros finished the regular season 39-42 at home and 51-30 on the road.

The Rangers are -130 on the money line on most books and the Astros are +110. The total runs is nine. Here are my best bets for Wednesday.

Max Scherzer OVER 3.5 hits allowed (+110 on BetMGM Sportsbook)

It’s a tricky spot for Scherzer. The Rangers right-hander hasn’t pitched since Sept. 12 due to a muscle strain in his right shoulder. He threw 69 pitches in a simulated game a week ago and they expect him to be around that number if he’s good. The 39-year old has spent the last month throwing bullpens and simulated games. The injury started to bother Scherzer in September and he went from a 33.6% strikeout rate in August to 22.4% in August and his FIP went from 2.57 to 5.21. The last time we saw Scherzer in the postseason was with the Mets and there was some question about his health at that time as he allowed seven runs on seven hits in 4.2 innings against the Padres. The Astros had five hits against Nathan Eovaldi over six innings and five hits against Jordan Montgomery over 6.1 innings. If Scherzer isn’t good, the Astros can cash this quickly.

Yordan Alvarez OVER 1.5 total bases (+130 at bet365 Sportsbook)

Alvarez had a great regular season and he’s been even better in the postseason. He is 9-for-23 (.391) with 10 runs, two doubles, six home runs, eight RBIs and a 1.701 OPS. Against Scherzer, Alvarez is 4-for-7 with a home run, three walks and a 1.000 slugging percentage. It’s a big game for the Astros and getting one of the best hitters in the game against a rusty pitcher and a bad bullpen at plus-money has to be done. Alvarez has at least two total bases in five of the six playoff games. The only reason I didn’t bet Alvarez in Game 2 was due to him dealing with a virus and headaches. Clearly, he was fine with two home runs. He has two multi-homer games this postseason.

Yesterday’s record: 1-1 (-.26 units)
All-time record: 68–35 (+25.6 units)