Super Bowl Favorites’ Biggest Weaknesses

The trade deadline has come and gone. Unless a team has a key piece coming back from injury, rosters are pretty much set in stone from now through the middle of February. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the most glaring weaknesses left unaddressed for contenders, and what could be their Achilles heel down the stretch.

Note: Contenders are sorted by FanDuel Super Bowl Odds

Philadelphia Eagles (+500 to win Super Bowl LVIII): Cornerback Depth

The Eagles are Super Bowl favorites for a reason; there’s not a more complete roster in the NFL. Week in and week out opponents struggle to find any exploitable mismatches against the Eagles. If there’s any spot that’s plagued them, though, it’s been nickel corner. Josh Jobe, Mario Goodrich, and Avonte Maddox have combined to allow more yards this season than either starting boundary corner, James Bradberry and Darius Slay. Over the past few weeks they’ve been turning to rookie UDFA Eli Ricks to fill that role. This fact is made all the more worrisome for the Eagles by the fact that Bradberry and Slay are both on the wrong side of 30, with the increased injury risk that comes along with advanced age. 

Kansas City Chiefs (+500): Wide Receivers

After Skyy Moore’s misplay on a would-be fourth-down touchdown ended the Chiefs’ comeback hopes against the Broncos last weekend, this one remains obvious: The Chiefs simply don’t have enough playmakers. The scary thing for them is that Moore is actually their best receiver against man coverage on the roster, but he’s nowhere near advanced enough to take on the No. 1 corners he ends up facing because of that. That’s led Patrick Mahomes to an even greater reliance on 34-year old Travis Kelce than at any other point in either's career. Mahomes has targeted Kelce at least eight times in every single game this season, and Kelce is on pace for a career-high in targets despite missing Week 1 (when the offense looked inept without him).  

San Francisco 49ers (+600): Offensive Line

While everyone wanted to discuss the merits of Brock Purdy after the 49ers’ second straight loss on Sunday, few were discussing the root problem for the 49ers’ offense: a cobbled together offensive line. I’m guessing if you asked football fans outside the bay area who Jaylon Moore, Aaron Banks, Jake Brendel, Spencer Burford, or Colton McKivitz are, they’d draw a blank on almost all of them. That was the 49ers’ offensive line Sunday, from left to right. It obviously looks better when Trent Williams is healthy, but that’s still a lot of question marks when you have to face some of the better defensive lines around the league.

Miami Dolphins (+950): Offensive Line Injuries

The Dolphins made some very shrewd signings in adding Kendall Lamm and Isaiah Wynn this offseason to shore up their offensive line. Unfortunately, Wynn went down a week ago with a quad injury that may be season-ending, right guard Robert Hunt went down this past week with a hamstring injury, and left tackle Terron Armstead’s timetable for return is unclear (although he is back at practice for the first time since injuring his ankle Week 4). Whew. At full strength it’s the best offensive line the Dolphins have had in years, but “at full strength” seems like a pipe dream for Miami at this point. 

Dallas Cowboys (+1000): Inconsistent Run Game

This is a two-fold problem. The first issue is not having Kellen Moore and all he did designing a diverse rushing attack in Dallas. The second is Tony Pollard looking like a shell of himself after a broken leg in last year’s playoffs. Pollard is currently averaging -.12 EPA/rush; that figure ranks 24th among 35 running backs with at least 60 rushing attempts this season. It’s a far cry from his .02 EPA/rush figure a year ago that ranked eighth among all backs in the league.The offensive line is still solid as can be, but those results aren’t going to cut it.

Baltimore Ravens (+1200): Lamar-Reliant Run Game

The Ravens are right behind the Eagles when it comes to weak links; there’s truly not a lot of positions on this roster that are even bordering on liabilities at this point. They are always going to be one of the most dangerous rushing teams in the NFL with Lamar Jackson at quarterback, and they currently lead the league in attempts (259) and are second in yards (1,134). Though look at, solely, their handoffs to running backs, and it’s not near as pretty.

Lamar Jackson: 74 carries, 380 yards, 5.1 yards per carry
Running Backs: 172 carries, 712 yards, 4.1 yards per carry

The more worrisome part is the volume for Jackson. He’s on pace for over 150 carries on the season — his most since 2020. With the injury history that’s seen him miss 10 games over the past two seasons, the Ravens would like to phase out the designed quarterback runs as much as possible. With him being the most efficient option, though, that likely won’t change anytime soon. 

Buffalo Bills (+1200): Linebackers

Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds ain’t walking through that door anytime soon. 2022 3rd-rounder Terrel Bernard and 2023 3rd-rounder Dorian Williams may be impact starters in the future, but that’s not the case at the moment — so much so that Williams was actually benched in favor of former UDFA Tyrel Dodson last week. It’s a position that’s so key to what the Bills want to do with their light boxes, but it has been easy to target of late.

Detroit Lions (+1400): Thin Defensive Line

The Lions have added a ton to their defensive line in recent years, yet it’s still overmatched against more physical offensive lines. Defensive tackle Alim McNeil is the only one along their defensive line I’d describe as a plus run defender, with interior guys like John Cominsky, Benito Jones, and Levi Onwuzurike all struggling to consistently hold the point of attack. It’s far from the biggest issue, but when the 49ers and Eagles rushing attacks likely coming up in the playoffs, it becomes more of a concern.

Cincinnati Bengals (+1700): Offensive Line Inconsistency

The tragic thing is, this is the best offensive line the Bengals have had since Joe Burrow was drafted. They’ve had cohesiveness with the same five starters all season long, but it’s still a unit that can be exploited. They currently rank 29th in pass-blocking win rate according to ESPN, and have allowed over 70 pressures in seven games. That’s even with Burrow having the third-fastest time to throw in the NFL according to NextGenStats. 

Jacksonville Jaguars (+2000): One-Dimensional Pass-Rush

If Josh Allen isn’t getting home for the Jaguars, no one is. He’s got 39 pressures on the season and a 19.1 pass-rush win rate according to PFF. The win rates of the rest of their defensive line pale in comparison:

Travon Walker (261 snaps): 10.6% win rate
Roy Robertson-Harris (249): 8.2%
Folorunso Fatukasi (136): 4.7%
Adam Gotsis (131): 1.6%
Jeremiah Ledbetter (116): 1.8%
Angelo Blackson (114): 1.9%
Dawuane Smoot (93): 4.5%
K’Lavon Chaisson (91): 4.5%

That makes it so much easier for opposing offenses to scheme around the one threat and effectively neutralize the Jags’ pass-rush.

Cleveland Browns (+2800): Quarterback

The Browns are currently 30th in total EPA generated from their passing game (-41.32). They’ve been worse than the Jets and Cardinals in that regard, but it’s not simply because of the backups they’ve been forced to play. Deshaun Watson ranks 28th in EPA/dropback himself. It’s a minor miracle their Super Bowl odds are this good still considering how disastrous their passing attack has been this season.

Seattle Seahawks (+3100): Pass Protection

The injuries the Seahawks have suffered up front are the biggest reason we’ve seen Geno Smith take a step back in 2023. Last year’s starting tackles — Charles Cross and Abe Lucas — have combined for 166 snaps so far this season. Cross came back a few weeks ago from his toe injury, but hasn’t quite looked like himself (12 pressures allowed in three games, per PFF). The result has been an offense that’s struggled mightily in the traditional dropback passing game. Smith has actually averaged -.07 EPA on traditional dropback passes this season, with as many interceptions (six) as touchdowns. 

Los Angeles Chargers (+4200): Guarding the Middle of the Field

This one is obvious any time you flip on the tape. The Chargers are allowing an insane .71 EPA/play on targets 5+ yards downfield between the numbers. It also doesn’t help that they’ve been targeted the ninth-most times on such plays this season. There are gaping holes over the middle of the field on a near-weekly basis for the Chargers and it’s something they have to find answers for.