NFL Wild-Card Preview: Cowboys, Bills Lead Super Bowl Hopefuls

Welcome to the 2023 NFL playoffs! The Wild Card round matchups are set (all times Eastern): 

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans, Saturday January 13, 4:30 p.m.: Move over Father Time and Baby New Year, it’s time for Joe Flacco and C.J. Stroud! 

Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs, Saturday January 13, 8 p.m.: The most exciting game that you will not watch because you simply refuse to subscribe to another streaming service, no matter how much you enjoy reruns of Parks and Recreation.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills, Sunday January 14, 1 p.m.: Another chance to watch the Bills desperately try to beat themselves, but fail. 

Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys, Sunday January 14, 4:30 p.m.: The Ice Bowl. Aikman versus Favre. Those games in the mid-2010s when the Packers bounced out the Cowboys before getting bounced out by the Seahawks and Falcons. Which team will bounce which team out en route to being bounced out by the 49ers?

Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions, Sunday January 14, 8:15 p.m.: Matthew Stafford’s REVENGE versus Jared Goff’s REVENGE. Wait, can’t both teams and players just be happy about how the Stafford-Goff trade worked out for them? No? REVENGE it is, then.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Monday January 15, 8 p.m.: The Buccaneers may be a terrible playoff team, but the Eagles barely qualify as a team at this point.  

Let’s save the Black Monday musings and hot stove chatter for another time (late Monday morning, probably), give the Ravens and 49ers a well-deserved week off and get straight to what matters: analysis of the 12 teams that will play on Wild-Card weekend, ranked worst to best, with the Eagles dropping through the rankings like a sack of batteries to the bottom of a lake. 

12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2023 Season in a Nutshell

The Buccaneers won the NFC South the same way tykes win participation trophies: by showing up each week ready to play and trying their hardest. The Buccaneers did not let their losses to real NFC playoff teams (49ers, Lions, Eagles, who still qualify) get to them, finally grinding out a 9–0 win on a gusty afternoon against the Carolina Panthers, a team so bad that they have not scored a point since Christmas Eve.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield

Mayfield led the NFL with 72 third-down conversions entering Week 18, though his statistics on early downs were much less impressive. So Mayfield has either suddenly become one of the NFL’s best decision makers in high-leverage situations or is a fading journeyman prospect who got lucky while slinging the ball to Tom Brady’s two favorite targets of the 2020s. One look at the final score of Sunday’s game (in which Mayfield inexplicably kept throwing to receivers covered by Jaycee Horn, one of about four quality players on the Panthers roster) should tell you which scenario is more likely.

Buccaneers Offense

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin remain one of the NFL’s best receiving tandems. The Buccaneers offensive line is nothing special, but Tristan Wirfs anchors left tackle, giving Mayfield time to throw. The Buccaneers averaged just 3.4 yards per rush, but running back Rachaad White caught 64 passes, and Chase Edmonds surfaced as a serviceable committee back late in the season.

Buccaneers Defense

The Buccaneers lack a top-tier pass-rush threat now that Shaq Barrett has passed his prime, but there are lots of quality contributors on defense (Lavonte David, Antoine Winfield, Vita Vea, Jamal Dean) who helped Brady win the Super Bowl in 2020.

Todd Bowles is a heavy blitzer, and both David (4.5 sacks) and Winfield (5.0 sacks) have produced big plays when rushing the quarterback this year. 

Buccaneers Special Teams

Jake Camarda averaged 50.1 yards per punt, helping the Bucs win some games by pinning weaker opponents at their goal line. Chase McLaughlin, who has kicked for seven teams in five seasons, was reliable all year.

Bottom Line

The Buccaneers could beat the Eagles right now because, well, a Pop Warner team that really believes in itself could beat the Eagles right now. But the Bucs lost at home 25–11 in their last matchup with Philly, and that final score reflects the true difference in quality between these two teams when one of them doesn’t want to set fire to its own locker room. The Buccaneers spent the last two weeks (a loss to the Saints, a narrow win over Coastal Carolina) illustrating that they don’t really belong here. They were just fortunate that the Falcons and Saints spent the whole year proving that they were even less worthy.

11. Pittsburgh Steelers

2023 Season in a Nutshell

The Steelers wasted three months refusing to admit that offensive coordinator Matt Canada could lose to a preschooler in Tic-Tac-Toe and that Kenny Pickett wasn’t a gritty comeback specialist and “leader of men” but an overdrafted prospect with C-tier talent and intangibles. The Steelers only stayed in the playoff chase due to outstanding defense and narrow wins over sloppy opponents. 

Canada was fired midseason, veteran third-stringer Mason Rudolph took over in Week 16, and the Steelers offense reinvented itself as a power-rushing attack that takes occasional deep shots to George Pickens and Diontae Johnson. The Steelers went 3–0 down the stretch, including Saturday’s soggy 17–10 win over a Ravens team resting its starters. They clinched a playoff berth when the Jaguars lost in chumptastic fashion to the Titans on Sunday.

Quarterback Kenny Pick … er, Mitch Trubisk … er, Mason Rudolph

Rudolph is one of the league’s best third-stringers, which is not the same as actually being good. He meets all the basic NFL requirements, has been with the franchise long enough to have shared the locker room with Antonio Brown and is not as reluctant to launch 50-50 balls to Pickens as Pickett was.

Pickett remains the Steelers’ nominal quarterback of the future and will be Rudolph’s backup if Mike Tomlin asks nicely and no one says any mean things about him.

Steelers Offense

New offensive coordinator Eddie Faulkner and play-caller Mike Sullivan like to use three-tight end sets to force opponents to defend as many gaps as possible. Najeh Harris (34) and Jaylen Warren (28) ranked first and tied with Christian McCaffrey for second in broken tackles on running plays entering Week 18. 

Pickens caught 11 passes for 326 yards and two touchdowns in Rudolph’s first two starts but was shut out in the rain on Saturday. Johnson delivered the catch-and-run highlight to beat the Ravens but is more of a slippery possession receiver. The Steelers offensive line looks much better when firing off to run block than in pass protection.

Steelers Defense

T.J. Watt finished the season as a Defensive Player of the Year shortlister with an NFL-high 19.5 sacks. His Grade 3 MCL sprain on Saturday could be a crushing blow, however, to a defense that relies on its pass rush (47 sacks) and takeaways (27) to not just keep games within reach of their offense but protect their rookies (Joey Porter Jr.) and old timers (Patrick Peterson) at cornerback.

Steelers Special Teams

The Steelers blocked two punts this year. It’s also worth noting that opponents were just 4-of-7 on 50-plus yard field goals, with missed field goals by opponents impacting a few of their wins (see the Rams game). It’s better to be good than lucky, but it’s best to be both. 

Bottom Line

Mike Tomlin deserves credit for keeping the Steelers at or above .500 since the George W. Bush administration but blame for not taking the necessary steps to solve the team’s offensive problems sooner. Watt’s likely absence will doom the Steelers in the playoffs; broken tackles and paint-by-numbers passing plays won’t cut it against the Bills. Still, it took resilience to get this far, and Rudolph’s late-season emergence should at least help the team shed any delusions about Pickett moving forward. 

10. Philadelphia Eagles (could also be plausibly ranked 33rd)

2023 Season in a Nutshell

First three months: Jalen Hurts MVP chatter, Brotherly Shoves, weekly high-wire acts, narrow wins over weak opponents, even narrower wins over stronger opponents and a 10–1 start that briefly gave them a two-game lead over the rest of the NFC.

Final month: Despair, frustration, recriminations, heartbreak, anguish, doom, doom, doom. 

It got so bad that following the play-by-play feed of Sunday’s 27–10 Eagles loss to the Giants (Walkthrough was focused on watching the Packers and Seahawks) was like listening to radio coverage of the Hindenburg disaster. 

Quarterback Jalen Hurts

Hurts is not just a dual-threat on par with Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, he’s also a field marshall with almost as much play-calling control at the line of scrimmage as Peyton Manning or Tom Brady once wielded. Some of the daring decisions that worked for Hurts during the Eagles’ Super Bowl run a year ago have backfired this season, however, with fumbles and risky throws costing the Eagles potential victories over the Jets and Seahawks. Hurts suffered a finger injury in Sunday’s loss. Whatever. 

Eagles Offense

The Eagles use more zone-read and RPO concepts than any team in the NFL. Those tactics allow Hurts to choose among a variety of options — handoff to D’Andre Swift or another back, quick toss to A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith (dealing with an ankle injury), keeper, play-action deep shot — at the line of scrimmage, based on what the defense is trying to take away. After two years, opponents have found several exploitable weaknesses, and Hurts can be baited into bad situational decisions (like throwing deep while protecting a lead or calling his own number on third-and-long) based on what look he gets from the defense.

Jason Kelce, Lane Johnson and Jordan Mailata are the stars of both the league’s best offensive line and a pair of popular Christmas albums. (Landon Dickson made the Pro Bowl but does not sing, at least not publicly). Kelce, Hurts and the controversial-for-some-reason “Tush Push” make the Eagles the most effective team in NFL history at running the quarterback sneak.

Eagles Defense

Defensive coordinator Sean Desai was demoted in favor of (egads) Matt Patricia after the 49ers and Cowboys exposed the soft underbelly of the Eagles’ middle-of-the-field pass coverage, and things immediately went from bad to apocalyptic. Darius Slay (knee) should be back to patch up the awful secondary against the Buccaneers, if anyone still cares. 

The star-studded Eagles defensive line (Haason Reddick, Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham, rookie Jalen Carter, etc.) should have recorded more than 43 sacks. Patricia likes to drop Reddick and Graham into coverage, because Patricia is staggeringly incompetent. Also, everyone stopped tackling two weeks ago.

Eagles Special Teams

Jake Elliott is one of the NFL’s most reliable kickers. Britain Covey is a steady source of 20-plus yard punt returns.

Bottom Line

The Eagles of late November would have been the top team on this list, assuming they did not earn a first-round bye. Even after their losses to the 49ers and Cowboys, the Eagles looked like the fourth- or fifth-best team in the NFL. But the team fell apart in the second half against the Cardinals in Week 17, and Sunday was like some act of self-destructive on-field protest (when a win could have secured a home playoff game). The Eagles look so dysfunctional and demoralized that they might as well just cede their playoff berth to the Saints, who would at least appreciate it. 

Look for Philadelphia to possibly squeak past the Buccaneers, then get used by the 49ers as a chew toy. The Eagles’ toughest foe has become themselves, against whom they will battle throughout the offseason. 

9. Los Angeles Rams

2023 Season in a Nutshell

The Rams were supposed to spend the year quietly paying penance for their Super Bowl-era veteran binge and draft pick purge. Instead, Matthew Stafford got healthy, Puka Nacua headlined a stellar rookie class, and the Rams overcame a 3–6 start, beating lots of fellow middleweights (Seahawks twice, Colts, Browns, Saints) along the way.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford

Stafford remains one of the NFL’s most gifted pure passers when healthy. He still suffers occasional interception sprees, but he has the arm strength, accuracy, experience and decisiveness to pick apart any defense when everything is clicking, as his six touchdowns against the Browns and Ravens in December illustrated.

Rams Offense

Nacua is a big, physical possession receiver over the middle of the field and a fierce run blocker. Injuries and Nacua’s emergence have pushed Cooper Kupp into a supporting role, but Kupp remains a silky route runner. Sean McVay has little else to work with, but he remains one of the NFL’s most innovative game-planners, always finding new ways to create opportunities for Stafford’s two top targets. 

Kyren Williams is a tackle-breaking workhorse who is most effective up the middle. McVay does a fine job making sure that Williams is often running into light defensive boxes. The budget-friendly offensive line has been healthy and sturdy throughout the season.

Rams Defense

Aaron Donald remains one of the NFL’s premier defensive lineman. Rookies Kobie Turner and Byron Young have stepped up to punish opponents who focused their pass protection exclusively on Donald. Veteran cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon has been shadowing the opponent’s best receiver in the second half of the season, with Derion Kendrick drawing the less dangerous assignments and fellow sophomore Cobie Durant matching up against pure speedsters. 

Both Kendrick and Durant are vulnerable against better receivers, and while the Rams defense has played surprisingly well, it’s still a middle-of-the-pack unit. 

Rams Special Teams

This is where the Rams feel the pain of their forced austerity measures: L.A.’s special teams may be the worst in the NFL. Brett Maher went 3-of-7 from 50-plus yards early in the season, but he returned in Week 18 to replace Lucas Havrisik, who was 2-of-6 from 40-49 yards and missed three extra points. The Rams allowed two punt return touchdowns (including an overtime game winner by the Ravens), had one punt blocked and have gotten little from their return units.

Bottom Line

The 49ers, Cowboys and Eagles all beat the Rams during the regular season. The Rams improved in the second half of the year, but they didn’t really close the gap separating them from the true contenders; there are just too many holes being spackled by a handful of standout performers and McVay’s creativity.

If nothing else, their 2023 success should shorten the Rams’ rebuilding timeline. The franchise looked poised to spend the middle of the decade in cap purgatory. Instead, they have drafted a nucleus that can keep them relevant as their Super Bowl heroes start to fade. 

8. Green Bay Packers

2023 Season in a Nutshell

The Packers started the season 2–5, with losses to the lowly Falcons, Broncos and Raiders. Just when it looked like it was time to give up on the Jordan Love experiment, however, Love stopped playing like a schoolyard quarterback and began connecting with the many playmakers the Packers have drafted over the last two seasons. Green Bay’s defense, bad but not disastrous, did just enough to hold off the Chargers, Lions and, um, Panthers (again, we said “bad but not disastrous”) in late-season wins, then held the Bears to just 192 net yards in a 17–9, Week 18 win to earn a Wild-Card berth.

Quarterback Jordan Love

Love started the season with the footwork, mechanics and decision-making process of a talented relief pitcher or point guard who wandered onto the football field and was handed a starting job. He settled down as the year progressed, looking more and more like someone who had spent three seasons watching Aaron Rodgers and learning Matt LaFleur’s playbook. Love is still somewhat erratic, but he’s less likely to push the panic button on a blitz, or point his feet in two different directions while throwing in a third, than he was in September.

Packers Offense

LaFleur likes to use quick passes into the flats to create space for deep shots. About 100 different rookie and second-year receivers and tight ends (Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Luke Musgrave, Tucker Kraft, etc.) share the load in the passing game, depending on who is healthy and matches up well with the opposing defense. Christian Watson, nominally the Packers’ top receiver, has missed five straight games with a hamstring injury but may be back for the playoffs.

Aaron Jones missed several games this season with various injuries but has been his usual effective self down the stretch. The offensive line, a sore spot early in the season, stabilized as Love grew into his role and Rasheed Walker became more comfortable as David Bakhtiari’s replacement.

Packers Defense

Coordinator Joe Barry is the least popular person in Green Bay since Mike Pettine, the man he replaced. Barry may never be confused with Bill Belichick, but the Packers were without cornerback Jaire Alexander and safety Darnell Savage for much of the year, traded cornerback Rasul Douglas at the deadline, and lack depth along the defensive front. Alexander, Savage and linebacker De’Vondre Campbell (who played with a neck injury for several weeks before missing a few games) were all back in Week 18, which certainly helped the Packers shut down the Bears. 

While Barry doesn’t use nickel personnel in his base package as much as he used to, the Packers run defense still gets gouged far too often.

Packers Special Teams

Rookie kicker Anders Carlson has missed four field goals from 40-49 yards and five extra points. Keisean Nixon returns more kickoffs than anyone else in the league (most teams are content with touchbacks or fair catches these days) but has not been as successful doing so as he was in 2022.

Bottom Line

The Packers, like the Rams and Buccaneers, are supposed to be rebuilding and performing credit repair, not preparing for a playoff game. Unlike the Rams and Bucs, the Packers appear to have found their quarterback of the future and his offensive supporting cast, making them the NFC’s team to watch in 2024.

The Cowboys should make short work of Green Bay. That doesn’t change what an exciting, encouraging season the Packers have enjoyed, particularly since Week 11 or so, in stark contrast to the team who did them a favor by taking a certain legendary quarterback off their hands and minds. 

7. Houston Texans

2023 Season in a Nutshell

C.J. Stroud turned out to be the best rookie quarterback since Ben Roethlisberger. DeMeco Ryans and his 49ers-flavored staff turned out to be the perfect coaches for a bunch of youngsters and misfits. The Texans were supposed to spend this season getting reintroduced to society after a few years as a vanity project for the team owner’s self-help guru. Instead, they overcame a slow start and an endless barrage of injuries to stay in the playoff chase all season.

The Texans narrowly defeated the Indianapolis Colts 23–19 on Saturday night in a game that neatly introduced the team’s strengths and weaknesses to an audience that has not seen much of them this year.

Quarterback C.J. Stroud

Stroud looks like Matthew Stafford looked in his fifth or sixth season. The arm is phenomenal, the mobility good enough, the decision-making uncanny at times. Stroud excels at pushing the ball downfield but doesn’t take many unnecessary risks. 

Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik provided Stroud with plenty of childproofing early in the season, but Stroud is not as dependent now on quick screens and schemed-up YAC opportunities as he was in September.

Texans Offense

There was nothing unusual about Nico Collins’ 195-yard performance on Saturday. Collins went 9-191-1 against the Denver Broncos, 7-186-2 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and 7-146-1 in the first meeting with the Colts. 

The rest of Stroud’s wide receivers are journeymen with injury issues. Noah Brown (back) and Robert Woods (hip) were scratched in Week 18 but might play against the Browns. Both had surprising seasons when healthy, as did tight end Dalton Schultz, who missed a few late-season games with a hamstring injury. Electrifying rookie dust mite Tank Dell (broken leg) was lost long ago. 

The Texans don’t really have a running game, though Stroud sometimes hands off to Dalvin Singletary to give his arm a rest, and Singletary occasionally eludes some defenders for positive yardage. The patchwork Texans line, which always seems to be missing a starter or two, just isn’t built for precision run blocking. 

Texans Defense

Ryans has coaxed a lot from a mix of blue-chip youngsters like Will Anderson (7.0 sacks) and Derek Stingley (five interceptions) and unheralded veterans playing way over their heads like Jonathan Greenard (12.5 sacks), Steven Nelson (4 interceptions), Blake Cashman (106 tackles) and others. If your favorite team drafted a defender circa 2017, played him for a few seasons, was mildly disappointed by the results and dropped him unceremoniously into the free agent bargain bin, chances are he is playing for the Texans and doing surprisingly well despite having missed a few games with an injury.

The Colts gashed the Texans for 227 rushing yards on Saturday, with much of the damage done after defensive lineman Jerry Hughes left the game. Depth is a real issue on a team whose starters look like most playoff teams’ depth.

Texans Special Teams

Ka’imi Fairbairn and Cameron Johnston were injured for part of the year, because of course they were. Fairbairn missed his first extra point of the season on Saturday night but finished the year 27-of-28 in field goals. Johnston grossed 47.7 yards per punt for the year and pinned the Colts inside the 20-yard line four times on Saturday. The Texans’ coverage and return units are solid.

Bottom Line

Houston is the official Team to Watch for Next Year in this year’s playoffs. They are clearly on the rise. They are also talent-poor, injury plagued and came within one poorly-executed fourth-and-1 play of getting bounced out of the playoffs by the Colts. The Texans are as close to full strength as they can be and should put up a fight, but they come by their status as two-point home underdogs honestly. 

6. Cleveland Browns

2023 Season in a Nutshell

When Deshaun Watson succumbed to injuries and kismet after six rusty/wobbly starts, the Browns turned to a rotating cast of backups before finally signing 38-year-old Joe Flacco. The Super Bowl XLVII MVP and likely 2023 Comeback Player of the Year embarked on a torrid stretch that propelled the Browns into the playoffs, but it was the Myles Garrett-led defense and clever game-planning on the fly by Kevin Stefanski that kept the Browns in position to make a run in the first place.

Quarterback Joe Flacco

Original-recipe Flacco was an immobile, cautious game manager who used one of the strongest arms of the early 2010s to set up comeback routes and judicious deep shots along the sidelines. The barrel-aged version of Flacco we’re currently enjoying is more of a grizzled gunslinger. Flacco mixes touchdowns and turnovers with nifty play-fakes and unlikely Liam Neeson-climbing-a-fence scrambles. His success doesn’t look very sustainable, but at least Flacco is no longer the internet’s laziest punchline.

Browns Offense

Stefanski and Flacco love play-action, which slows the pass rush for one of the NFL’s best offensive lines and creates room for Amari Cooper and tight end David Njoku to operate. Nick Chubb’s Week 2 injury created opportunities for a Kareem Hunt/Jerome Ford/Pierre Strong committee.

Stefanski is not afraid of wrinkles to supplement the Flacco Experience. Hunt takes Wildcat snaps, scrambling rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson makes short-yardage cameos and backup center Nick Harris sometimes lines up at fullback, which only helps to sell the play-action deep shots.

Browns Defense

Jim Schwartz’s unit was on a historic pace until a rash of injuries depleted the secondary and Myles Garrett suffered a shoulder injury, but the Browns defense is still among the league’s best. Garrett battled through the injury to become a Defensive Player of the Year favorite. Denzel Ward (who missed a few weeks during the defensive slump), Martin Emerson Jr. and Greg Newsome II form the best cornerback trio in the playoffs. 

Schwartz prefers man-to-man coverage, with Ward on the offensive right, Emerson on the left and Newsome in the slot, with Garrett lined up so wide that he’s also practically in the slot. The Browns blitz when they want to, not when they have to.

Browns Special Teams

Dustin Hopkins’ field goals kept the Browns alive in several early-to-midseason games, but Hopkins suffered a hamstring injury while trying to make a tackle on a kickoff return in Week 15. Punter and placekicker holder Corey Bojorquez suffered a quad injury in the same game. Placekicking became a liability when Riley Patterson and Matt Haack took over. Bojourquez is back. Hopkins’ status is uncertain for the playoffs, though it sounds like he will be back.

Bottom Line

The Browns’ presence in the playoffs is a testament to the value of coaching, defense, offensive-line play, shrewd waiver-wire maneuvering and, most importantly, not folding the tents at the first sign of adversity (looks side-eyed at the Jets). They may be this year’s Team Playing With House Money, but the Browns have a defense capable of shutting down most of the great-on-paper/shaky-on-the-field offenses in the AFC playoffs, plus a quarterback who once guided a team past Peyton Manning and Tom Brady en route to a championship. 

5. Detroit Lions

2023 Season in a Nutshell

Take the Eagles’ or Cowboys’ 2023 seasons, lower the expectations from “Reach the Super Bowl or fans will reenact the French Revolution” to “Playoff berth? Let’s throw a party!” and you get the 2023 Lions.

Dan Campbell’s team cruised through a soft schedule with only a few stumbles, despite an injury-ravaged secondary that unraveled as the season wore on. A 38–6 loss to the Ravens in Week 8 revealed that the Lions were at least one notch below the top Super Bowl contenders. But c’mon: Detroit only wins its division about once per generation, so don’t be a spoil sport. 

Quarterback Jared Goff

Goff is one of the most precise and efficient quarterbacks in the league when throwing from a clean pocket to quality playmakers, just as he was during his late-2010s Rams heyday. When forced to improvise or escape danger, Goff is likely to tumble down multiple flights of stairs, which is also on-brand. Fortunately, Campbell, coordinator Ben Johnson and general manager Brad Holmes have given Goff the tools and structure he needs to succeed.

Lions Offense

Penei Sewell, Frank Ragnow and Taylor Decker form the core of one of the NFL’s best offensive lines. Slot receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and rookie tight end Sam LaPorta give the Lions two enticing options over the short-to-intermediate middle of the field; LaPorta suffered a bone bruise and hyperextended knee on Sunday and is likely out for the first week of the playoffs. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are a versatile lightning-and-thunder backfield combo. Everyone in this paragraph except Sewell missed time with injuries this year, and LaPorta’s absence could be a huge blow.

The Lions lack a true boundary target and deep threat. Jameson Williams was drafted to be that guy but keeps alternating between the injured list (he missed Week 18 with an ankle injury) and Campbell’s doghouse (he has hands like feet).

Lions Defense

Early-season injuries to Emmanuel Mosely and C.J. Gardner-Johnson forced defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn into crisis mode in the secondary. Cameron Sutton is miscast as a shutdown corner, and while Jerry Jacobs takes the field with a bullseye on his back each week, he’s better than the defenders he replaced. Rookie linebacker Jack Campbell is a thumper defending the run but a liability in coverage, causing further problems for the pass defense.

Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeill lead a deep defensive front that does its best to help the coverage units. The run defense has been solid throughout the season.

Lions Special Teams

Michael Badgley replaced Riley Patterson in Week 15 — Patterson was reliable for most of the season, but Badgley reportedly out-performed him in practice. Dave Fipp is one of the most respected special teams coordinators in the NFL. You better believe that the Lions have a fake punt or two (see the Cowboys game) in their playoff quiver.

Bottom Line

The Lions share many of the same strengths and weaknesses as the Cowboys and pre-meltdown Eagles, making them just as likely to get hammered by the 49ers in the NFC championship game as anyone else in the conference. They may be happy just to be here, but Campbell won’t let them get too complacent with their regular-season success. 

4. Kansas City Chiefs

2023 Season in a Nutshell

Drop, drop, drippity-drop. That’s not the sound of raindrops on your drop top. It’s the Chiefs wide receiver corps, this season’s biggest flop. Andy Reid’s Alka Seltzer went plop-plop-plop (fizz, fizz). Taylor Swift made your father-in-law blow his top. Kaderius Toney should be working in a donut shop. O.K., that’s enough, please make this stop.

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes led the NFL in both attempts and completions entering Week 18, a testament to how much he was asked to do for the Chiefs (Mahomes, who didn’t play on Sunday, finished the season third in both categories.) He also posted a career-high in interceptions, illustrating how often he was pressing to make things happen. Chiefs receivers dropped 39 of Mahomes’ passes, also a league high. There are also no stats to itemize how often receivers lined up wrong, ran incorrect routes or made other mistakes that ended up on Mahomes’ side of the ledger. If such mistakes could be captured by stats, the Chiefs would lead the league in them. 

Chiefs Offense

Mahomes and Travis Kelce remain telepathically linked; many of Kelce’s 93 receptions came on glorified schoolyard “get open” routes. Rookie Rashee Rice emerged as a close approximation of a reliable possession receiver. Everything else about the Chiefs passing game had to be meticulously schemed up by Reid, with Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson and others taking turns bobbling everything from simple screens to potential game-winning deep shots.

The Chiefs receivers became so unreliable that Reid actually resorted to his running game late in the season. Isiah Pacheco is a determined runner who will drag defenders. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is not. The veteran Chiefs line can push opponents around in the running game when Reid lets them.

Chiefs Defense

This rebuilt unit rescued the Chiefs offense frequently during the season. Chris Jones returned from a contract squabble to record 10.5 sacks, while George Karlaftis emerged in his second season, finishing with 10.5 as well. Trent McDuffie has grown into a shutdown cornerback. Nick Bolton is back from a midseason injury. Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo loves exotic all-angles blitzes, making the Chiefs a brutal team to convert against on third-and-long.

Chiefs Special Teams

Harrison Butker missed two field goals inside 40 yards, but they were his only misses of the year. Return man Richie James once fielded a punt inside the end zone and is a threat to make a mistake every time he touches the football, but the Chiefs’ other options in the return game (Toney, Mecole Hardman) were somehow less reliable. 

Bottom Line

The 2023 Chiefs are a lot like the 2005-06 New England Patriots, who suffered a lull after Tom Brady’s rise to Bradyness because their receiver corps was full of guys like Jabar Gaffney and Chad Jackson. Those Patriots teams rebuilt with an angry vengeance, and there are surely more chapters of the Mahomes saga to be written. But the Chiefs’ Super Bowl hopes this year are likely to end with a play like this. 

3. Miami Dolphins

Season in a Nutshell

Tyreek Hill anchored what was almost certainly the fastest offense in NFL history. Weaker opponents simply could not keep up, especially with Tua Tagovailoa playing point guard in Mike McDaniel’s Harlem Globetrotters-like system. The Bills, Eagles and Chiefs, however, were able to win with physicality and fundamentals, making the Dolphins look more like recess superstars than true Super Bowl contenders at times. A fourth-quarter letdown in all three phases in Sunday’s 21–14 loss to the Bills, which cost the Dolphins a division title they should have sewn up weeks ago, raised further doubts.

Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa

His traits won’t blow anyone away, but Tagovailoa has a quick release and deft touch. The crafty southpaw (sorry, some sports clichés are just embedded in the cerebellum) knows where to go with the ball and is no longer rattled as easily as he was in 2021 and ’22. Sure, Tua benefits from outstanding weapons and a clever system. So did the young Drew Brees. 

Dolphins Offense

Hill goes in motion before the snap, the entire defense says “Oh no, here it comes,” and chaos ensues. 

No team uses more pre-snap motion or runs more toss sweeps and misdirection plays. McDaniel’s offense is also loaded with wide-receiver screens, RPOs and wheel routes by running backs and tight ends. By the time Tagovailoa finally takes a deep shot to Hill or Jaylen Waddle, the opposing defense is too worn out from running sideline-to-sideline to do anything about it.

The Dolphins offensive line has dealt with injury problems all season, and all the gadgetry often leaves them with some tricky assignments. The Bills and Eagles slowed the Dolphins down by dominating the line of scrimmage, but the Cowboys (despite an excellent defensive front) could not.

Dolphins Defense

Bradley Chubb’s Week 17 ACL injury could be a crushing blow. Chubb, Jaelen Phillips (also out for the year) and Christian Wilkins headline a pass rush that recorded 56 sacks in the regular season, keeping weaker opponents on their backs when forced to play catchup. The Dolphins recorded three sacks on Sunday night, so they are not totally helpless — though Andrew Van Ginkel and Cameron Goode, filling in for Chubb and Phillips, both left Sunday’s loss with injuries.

Jalen Ramsey’s Week 8 return from injury was a boon for the Dolphins secondary. Stalwart Xavien Howard, who has been with the team since the Adam Gase years, missed the Bills game with a foot injury but should return for the playoffs. The Dolphins pass defense helped the team grind out wins over the Raiders and Cowboys in the second half of the season when the offense slipped out of gear.

The Dolphins run defense gave up 233 yards to the Chargers in a season opener that feels like it occurred 87 years ago but has been solid since. Few opponents have the luxury of running against the Dolphins in the second half.

Dolphins Special Teams

Kicker Jason Sanders is a reliable veteran. Braxton Berrios is a shifty returner who doesn’t make many mistakes. Kick coverage units have been a problem, as the Bills’ punt return touchdown on Sunday night demonstrated. 

Bottom Line

The edge-rusher injuries could feed the Dolphins’ daisy-stomper reputation in the playoffs: They really need their sack-happy defense to complement their fast-break offense against better teams. The Dolphins can outrun everyone, however, and they look more like the 2019-22 Chiefs than the ’23 Chiefs do. They may be longshots, especially after some late-season losses, but Hill’s presence makes a postseason run plausible. 

2. Buffalo Bills

2023 Season in a Nutshell

Preseason favorites to win just about everything, the Bills tripped out of the gate with an overtime loss to the Jets. They kept on tripping until midseason, when embattled offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey was fired and replaced by Joe Brady. The coaching switch zapped the whole team back to life, and the Bills lived up to their reputation with late-season wins over the Chiefs, Cowboys and (on Sunday night) Dolphins, pushing them from the brink of elimination all the way to the second seed in the AFC field.

Quarterback Josh Allen

On his best days, Allen looks like a cross between peak Cam Newton and vintage John Elway. But as his first-half performance on Sunday night illustrated, Allen also has a knack for launching hero balls and succumbing to turnover sprees. Brady appeared to have reigned Allen in somewhat before Week 18, but the reduction in mistakes has come bundled with a reduction in production. Still, few quarterbacks in the NFL are as capable of single-handedly taking over a game. 

Bills Offense

Brady is much more run-oriented than Dorsey, with James Cook getting the bulk of the carries and Allen rushing more often by design than he did early in the season. The ball-control approach suits an offensive line that can overpower even playoff-caliber opponents (see the Cowboys game) and a team that had trouble protecting leads in the past.

Stefon Diggs has been quiet since the coordinator switch, and a quiet Diggs is often a dissatisfied Diggs. Diggs’ snap counts even dipped late in the season, for reasons we are sure to hear about if/when the Bills are knocked out of the playoffs. 

Rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid is the de-facto possession receiver, Gabriel Davis the deep threat, Khalil Shakir the shifty slot guy taking snaps away from Diggs. Cook had an increased role in the receiving game when Brady took over, but the Bills passing game was content to let their running game and defense do the heavy lifting in several of their late-season wins.

Bills Defense

Exceptional early in the year, shockingly awful for several weeks after Tre’Davious White, Matt Milano and DaQuan Jones got injured, then very-good-to-great again after reinforcements Rasul Douglas and Linval Joseph arrived and Poona Ford returned from an injury. Von Miller is back but looked like a shell of his former self in the regular season. He has been known to step up in the postseason (10.5 career playoff sacks).

Bills Special Teams

The Bills allowed a game-ending punt return touchdown in the season opener and a game-opening kickoff return touchdown to the Patriots in Week 17. Kicker Tyler Bass has missed five extra points. On the plus side, Deontay Hardy’s 96-yard punt return touchdown on Sunday night caused a seismic momentum shift in the Bills’ favor. 

Bottom Line

The Bills may indeed be the second-best team in the AFC, and perhaps the third-best team in the NFL. Yet a watermelon’s worth of seeds of doubt can even be found in their late-season winning streak: the passing game is more “different” than “better” under Brady, and the narrow wins over the Chargers and Patriots were not very convincing. Even Sunday’s win was more of a blooper reel than a victory lap until the fourth quarter.

The Bills may be the Team No One Wants to Face in the Playoffs, but they were supposed to be the Team To Beat, and it's worth remembering all the reasons why they were demoted before you place your faith in them or a wager upon them. 

1. Dallas Cowboys

2023 Season in a Nutshell

It was a Cowboys season like any other, only more so. They pulverized opponents like the Giants, Jets, Patriots and Panthers so thoroughly that it almost looked like they were trying too hard to prove something. December arrived just as the skeptics started to come around, and the Cowboys stayed true to their brand with losses to the Bills and Dolphins, plus a narrow, referee-assisted win over the Lions. The Cowboys clinched the NFC East with Sunday’s 38–10 drubbing of the Commanders. The win also illustrated that the Cowboys are entering the postseason ready to be taken seriously, unlike their rivals in Philly. 

Quarterback Dak Prescott

Nothing short of a Super Bowl victory will convince the Dak Doubters, who have been criticizing every facet of Prescott’s game since he was Tony Romo. Prescott led the NFL with 36 passing touchdowns this season, cut down on his interceptions and still adds value as a scrambler and runner. But ripping Prescott is a great way to get your article liked and shared up and down the I-95 corridor. So guess what? DAK STINKS.

Cowboys Offense

CeeDee Lamb lines up all over the formation — even in the backfield at times — and makes catches anywhere and everywhere. The whole passing game flows through Lamb, with Jake Ferguson working underneath (plus some well-timed seam shots) and Brandin Cooks taking the lid off the defense.

Don’t tell the cool kids on the social networks, but the Cowboys offense missed Ezekiel Elliott this year. Tony Pollard has been an adequate runner but done little as a receiver, while backup Rico Dowdle is only memorable because “Rico Dowdle” is fun to say. Tyron Smith and Zach Martin still anchor a solid offensive line when both are healthy, which is now about 65% of the time.

Mike McCarthy’s offense is one of the fastest-paced units in the NFL: They often go no-huddle in non-hurry-up situations, and Prescott generally gets the team out of the huddle and takes the snap quickly, putting pressure on defenders playing Find the Lamb.

Cowboys Defense

Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence spearhead a fearsome front four. Da’Ron Bland’s remarkable Pick-6 streak came to an end late in the season, and D.K. Metcalf/Terry McLaurin caliber receivers give him trouble, but opponents still pick on Bland at their peril. Veteran Stephon Gilmore is steady at cornerback on the offensive right side.

The Cowboys use dime personnel more than most teams, with safeties Donovan Wilson and Jayron Kearse acting as de-facto linebackers. Playing with a big lead so often makes it easier for coordinator Dan Quinn to deploy six defensive backs without worrying about the run threat. But like many NFC playoff defenses, the Cowboys can be a little squishy in the middle when their pass rush doesn’t get home. 

Cowboys Special Teams

Former professional soccer player and USFL kicker Brandon Aubrey did not miss a field goal until the Commanders blocked a 32-yard attempt on Sunday, was 9-of-9 from 50-plus yards and consistently drilled touchbacks. Veteran Bryan Anger entered Week 18 leading the NFL with 45.3 net yards per punt.

Bottom Line

It’s easier than usual to believe in the Cowboys. Unfortunately, it’s harder than ever to disbelieve in the 49ers, who beat the Cowboys 42–10 in Week 5. Does it count as another humiliating Cowboys collapse if they reach the NFC Championship, only to fall to a superior foe? Eagles, Giants and Commanders agree: hell yes.

And Finally …

We leave you with this enduring image from the final day of the 2023 NFL regular season:

That caption is somewhat misleading. It should read “Aaron Rodgers and Bill Belichick getting Thanos-snapped into dust.”