NFL Week 18 Best Bets, Player Props, Survivor Picks

While Week 18 can be tricky for betting the NFL, it can also be lucrative in the right spots. The key is going through the news in detail to determine the motivation. Contract incentives can be important for players and many teams have a playoff berth on the line, while other teams have nothing to play for and will rest key players.

Many players aren’t available in the prop market right now. Keep an eye on players like 49ers running back Jordan Mason and Browns running back Pierre Strong, who could be in line for big workloads. The more digging you do over the next few days, the more good spots can be found.

Week 18 Best Bets

Chicago Bears (+3) at Green Bay Packers (-110 Caesars Sportsbook)
The Bears are playing well — 6-1-1 ATS the last eight games — and they would love to play spoiler for the division rival Packers. Justin Fields wants to show he’s the quarterback for the future and the defense has played well over the second half of the season. Green Bay gets into the postseason with a win (the Packers can still get in with a loss, but would need losses by the Seahawks, Vikings or a tie and a loss by either the Saints or Buccaneers). The Packers are getting some players back from injury, but there are 21 players listed on their injury report. The Bears have a chance to win the game and even if they don’t, it will be close. 

Mike Evans OVER 62.5 receiving yards (-110 bet365 Sportsbook)
Evans doesn’t need high volume to top this number. He is averaging 16.2 yards per catch and had 70 receiving yards last week on only three catches. The Buccaneers wide receiver has gone over this in six of the last eight games. He is averaging 77.1 yards per game. Evans played the Panthers in Week 13 and had 12 targets, catching seven passes for 162 yards. The Buccaneers will win the NFC South with a victory, so getting the ball to one of their best players makes sense.

DJ Moore OVER 65.5 receiving yards (-110 bet365 Sportsbook)
As mentioned above, the Bears are finishing the season strong and will look to finish with a win that would ruin the Packers’ postseason hopes. Moore has gone over this prop in four of the last six games (that includes Week 16, when he had only three catches for 18 yards but injured his ankle on the first reception of the game and clearly wasn’t right the rest of the way). Moore is averaging 94.4 receiving yards in 11 full games with Fields this season. The Packers have allowed five wide receivers to go over this number the past four weeks.

Nico Collins OVER 74.5 receiving yards (-110 bet365 Sportsbook)
We played this last week at 15 yards lower and it cashed — the books have adjusted after Collins caught seven passes for 80 yards last week. The Texans won 26–3 and if the game was competitive, Collins could have a bigger stat line. In 12 full games with Stroud, Collins has gone over this prop in eight. He is averaging 89.6 receiving yards with Stroud. Noah Brown is out and Collins will be the go-to receiver. In Week 2 against the Colts, Collins had seven catches for 146 yards on nine targets.

Tyrod Taylor OVER 198.5 passing yards (-115 BetMGMSportsbook)
Taylor has given the Giants’ offense a boost. He replaced Tommy DeVito in the second half against the Eagles in Week 16 and passed for 133 yards on only seven completions. Last week against the Rams, Taylor went 27-for-41 for 319 yards with one touchdown and one interception. The Eagles defense has been awful in the second half of the season and couldn’t stop Arizona last week — the Cardinals didn’t even punt. The Eagles could pull their starters early, too. The Cowboys win the NFC East with a win and play at Washington, where they are 13.5-point favorites. The Eagles need a win and a Cowboys loss to win the division and the second seed. Both games are at the same time and if the Eagles see the Cowboys with a big lead, their starters could be removed. 

Week 18 Survivor Picks

By now, a lot of survivor pools have ended. In case yours hasn’t, here are the top picks. If the Cowboys are available, they are the top pick.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Carolina Panthers): The Buccaneers win the NFC South with a victory. The Panthers have lost eight of their last nine games and lost 26–0 last week to a sinking Jaguars’ team. The Panthers have scored 13 or fewer points in seven of the last nine games. In the first matchup between the teams, in Tampa Bay, the Buccaneers won, 21–18.  

2. Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Cleveland Browns): The Browns are locked into the fifth seed and will be resting most of their key players. The Bengals are favored by seven points and will be playing most of their starters.  

3. Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Denver Broncos): Neither team has anything to play for, but they are rivals and the Raiders will likely want to play hard to give coach Antonio Pierce a shot to keep the job. The Raiders defense has played well the last few weeks and, with Jarrett Stidham at quarterback, the Broncos offense wasn’t impressive last week against a bad Chargers defense.