NFL Playoff Preview Countdown: No. 14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2023 Season in a Nutshell

The Buccaneers won the NFC South the same way tykes win participation trophies: by showing up each week ready to play and trying their hardest. The Buccaneers did not let their losses to real NFC playoff teams (49ers, Lions, Eagles, who still qualify) get to them, finally grinding out a 9–0 win on a gusty afternoon against the Carolina Panthers, a team so bad that they have not scored a point since Christmas Eve.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield

Mayfield led the NFL with 72 third-down conversions entering Week 18, though his statistics on early downs were much less impressive. So Mayfield has either suddenly become one of the NFL’s best decision makers in high-leverage situations or is a fading journeyman prospect who got lucky while slinging the ball to Tom Brady’s two favorite targets of the 2020s. One look at the final score of Sunday’s game (in which Mayfield inexplicably kept throwing to receivers covered by Jaycee Horn, one of about four quality players on the Panthers roster) should tell you which scenario is more likely.

Offense

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin remain one of the NFL’s best receiving tandems. The Buccaneers offensive line is nothing special, but Tristan Wirfs anchors left tackle, giving Mayfield time to throw. The Buccaneers averaged just 3.4 yards per rush, but running back Rachaad White caught 64 passes, and Chase Edmonds surfaced as a serviceable committee back late in the season.

Defense

The Buccaneers lack a top-tier pass-rush threat now that Shaq Barrett has passed his prime, but there are lots of quality contributors on defense (Lavonte David, Antoine Winfield, Vita Vea, Jamal Dean) who helped Brady win the Super Bowl in 2020.

Todd Bowles is a heavy blitzer, and both David (4.5 sacks) and Winfield (5.0 sacks) have produced big plays when rushing the quarterback this year.

Special Teams

Jake Camarda averaged 50.1 yards per punt, helping the Bucs win some games by pinning weaker opponents at their goal line. Chase McLaughlin, who has kicked for seven teams in five seasons, was reliable all year.

Bottom Line

The Buccaneers could beat the Eagles right now because, well, a Pop Warner team that really believes in itself could beat the Eagles right now. But the Bucs lost at home 25–11 in their last matchup with Philly, and that final score reflects the true difference in quality between these two teams when one of them doesn’t want to set fire to its own locker room. The Buccaneers spent the last two weeks (a loss to the Saints, a narrow win over Coastal Carolina) illustrating that they don’t really belong here. They were just fortunate that the Falcons and Saints spent the whole year proving that they were even less worthy.