NFL Playoff Preview Countdown: No. 9 Houston Texans

This is an excerpt from this week’s edition of Mike Tanier’s NFL Walkthrough, available every Monday at The Messenger…

2023 Season in a Nutshell

C.J. Stroud turned out to be the best rookie quarterback since Ben Roethlisberger. DeMeco Ryans and his 49ers-flavored staff turned out to be the perfect coaches for a bunch of youngsters and misfits. The Texans were supposed to spend this season getting reintroduced to society after a few years as a vanity project for the team owner’s self-help guru. Instead, they overcame a slow start and an endless barrage of injuries to stay in the playoff chase all season.

The Texans narrowly defeated the Indianapolis Colts 23–19 on Saturday night in a game that neatly introduced the team’s strengths and weaknesses to an audience that has not seen much of them this year.

Quarterback C.J. Stroud

Stroud looks like Matthew Stafford looked in his fifth or sixth season. The arm is phenomenal, the mobility good enough, the decision-making uncanny at times. Stroud excels at pushing the ball downfield but doesn’t take many unnecessary risks.

Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik provided Stroud with plenty of childproofing early in the season, but Stroud is not as dependent now on quick screens and schemed-up YAC opportunities as he was in September.

Offense

There was nothing unusual about Nico Collins’ 195-yard performance on Saturday. Collins went 9-191-1 against the Denver Broncos, 7-186-2 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and 7-146-1 in the first meeting with the Colts.

The rest of Stroud’s wide receivers are journeymen with injury issues. Noah Brown (back) and Robert Woods (hip) were scratched in Week 18 but might play against the Browns. Both had surprising seasons when healthy, as did tight end Dalton Schultz, who missed a few late-season games with a hamstring injury. Electrifying rookie dust mite Tank Dell (broken leg) was lost long ago.

The Texans don’t really have a running game, though Stroud sometimes hands off to Dalvin Singletary to give his arm a rest, and Singletary occasionally eludes some defenders for positive yardage. The patchwork Texans line, which always seems to be missing a starter or two, just isn’t built for precision run blocking.

Defense

Ryans has coaxed a lot from a mix of blue-chip youngsters like Will Anderson (7.0 sacks) and Derek Stingley (five interceptions) and unheralded veterans playing way over their heads like Jonathan Greenard (12.5 sacks), Steven Nelson (4 interceptions), Blake Cashman (106 tackles) and others. If your favorite team drafted a defender circa 2017, played him for a few seasons, was mildly disappointed by the results and dropped him unceremoniously into the free agent bargain bin, chances are he is playing for the Texans and doing surprisingly well despite having missed a few games with an injury.

The Colts gashed the Texans for 227 rushing yards on Saturday, with much of the damage done after defensive lineman Jerry Hughes left the game. Depth is a real issue on a team whose starters look like most playoff teams’ depth.

Special Teams

Ka’imi Fairbairn and Cameron Johnston were injured for part of the year, because of course they were. Fairbairn missed his first extra point of the season on Saturday night but finished the year 27-of-28 in field goals. Johnston grossed 47.7 yards per punt for the year and pinned the Colts inside the 20-yard line four times on Saturday. The Texans’ coverage and return units are solid.

Bottom Line

Houston is the official Team to Watch for Next Year in this year’s playoffs. They are clearly on the rise. They are also talent-poor, injury plagued and came within one poorly-executed fourth-and-1 play of getting bounced out of the playoffs by the Colts. The Texans are as close to full strength as they can be and should put up a fight, but they come by their status as two-point home underdogs honestly.