Damian Lillard With the Milwaukee Bucks Is As Dangerous As You Thought

It wasn’t perfect.

The Milwaukee Bucks eked out a 118-117 home win over the Philadelphia 76ers, a team (in)famously missing an All-Star guard right now. There were hiccups offensively for the Bucks; they logged a 97.7 offensive rating on half-court possessions per Cleaning The Glass, a mark nearly two points lower than last year’s team (99.6). 

But that all feels secondary through the lens of Damian Lillard’s night. 

The Bucks’ shiny new toy dazzled in his regular-season debut, leading all scorers with 39 points and setting the Bucks’ debut scoring record in the process. It wasn’t Lillard’s cleanest shooting performance — he converted five of his eight shots inside the arc, but went 3-of-12 from deep — but he compensated by draining all 17 (!) of his free throw attempts.

What stood out wasn’t just the points. Heck, it wasn’t even the timeliness of the points, though that also seemed important; as noted by the broadcast, Lillard scored 14 of his 39 points in the final four minutes of the game. Lillard’s usage popped throughout the night, as did his placement in the offense when he wasn’t directly involved.

Within that context, it’s hard not to be excited — or terrified, depending on your rooting interest — about what Lillard in Milwaukee represents.

I think about Milwaukee’s opening possession after the jump ball, which lasted a smooth 10 seconds and ended with the ball being kicked out of bounds.

It’s a staple for this era of the Bucks: an Iverson cut for Khris Middleton that leads him to the left wing, with Giannis Antetokounmpo following him to set up an empty side pick-and-roll. The Sixers, deploying Tobias Harris and P.J. Tucker on those two respectively, switch the action. Joel Embiid (really good defensive showcase in this one) stays on the left side of the floor to cut off a potential roll from Giannis.

What stands out to me is having Lillard one pass away, pretty much at the right hash. De’Anthony Melton is an aggressive defender, on and off the ball. He’s not afraid to show help one pass away, trusting that his speed and near-6’9 wingspan will allow him to recover. It actually gets him into trouble sometimes, but that’s the give-and-take with someone like him.

It’s noteworthy that Melton didn’t even think about stunting towards Middleton. That’s at least partly due to Tucker navigating the switch well, but it’s also an acknowledgment of the threat of Lillard’s shooting. He knows he can fire from there. He knows he could pump and drive from there. Having someone like that alongside Middleton-Giannis' actions will enhance them, making life easier for everyone else.

A little over a minute later, we see the value of Lillard being spaced one pass away again as Middleton and Giannis connect for another ball screen.

The side isn’t empty this time, with Brook Lopez spaced in the strong side (left) corner to keep Embiid attached to him. But again, look at Melton’s unwillingness to provide help to Lillard. As Giannis slips the screen, Tyrese Maxey rotates over to account for the roll as well as he can. In a situation like that, Melton would be tasked with “splitting the difference” — essentially zoning up — between Maxey’s man (Malik Beasley) and Lillard. 

Instead, Melton stays planted:

Giannis winds up getting Embiid in the air and drawing a shooting foul, but Beasley — a career 41% shooter on corner threes — is left wide open. These are the kinds of decisions that Lillard forced the Sixers to make and will force other teams to make when he isn’t involved. 

Of course, things were fun when he was involved.

We only got 11 on-ball reps with Giannis screening for Lillard per Second Spectrum, but they were fruitful. Per the tracking data, a possession featuring a Lillard-Giannis pick-and-roll generated over 1.09 points per possession — the equivalent of a top-10 mark among high-volume pairings (min. 500 picks) last season. 

In order, we have: 

You don’t see perfection in those clips — particularly the second and third ones — but that’s also the point. Kinks are being worked out and you can see how devastating the pairing was and will be.

Lillard’s most effective screening partner, per Second Spectrum, was actually Lopez. Their best stretch came in the second quarter, where Lopez and a second screener set up shop near half-court to give Lillard a spacious runway. It’s hard enough to deal with Lillard’s blend of pull-up shooting and drives; it’s even more difficult when the action starts that high up the floor.

It also underscores another benefit of adding Lillard to this group: he can be an offense onto himself, which should make it easier to deal with the non-Giannis (and non-Middleton, while he’s on a minutes restriction) minutes. Per PBP Stats, the Bucks were:

It’s a one-game sample of course, but that’s a big positive to take considering the lack of time they’ve gotten together. As the sample grows, and as the comfort grows, Lillard’s presence in Milwaukee will make the team even tougher to deal with.

Get ready.