MLB Prediction: The 2023 MVP Awards Should Go to Shohei Ohtani (Angels) and Mookie Betts (Dodgers)

This year’s MVP races are a study in contrasts. One battle is so lopsided that Vegas has taken its odds off the board; the other is a fascinating clash between players so similar in value that there is no real right (or wrong) answer.

In the American League, Shohei Ohtani is practically unassailable despite not playing his two-way calling card after late August, and missing most of the season’s final month entirely. Between his value as a batter and pitcher, Ohtani finished the season nearly three Wins Above Replacement clear of the next-closest MVP finalist, Marcus Semien of the Texas Rangers. Since the MVP doesn’t factor what Semien and teammate Corey Seager did for the Rangers in the postseason, Ohtani is a practical lock despite his Angels collapsing down the stretch.

The NL has the real debate. Atlanta’s Ronald Acuña Jr. ended up as the only 40/70 player in MLB history, part of his effort to exemplify everything great about baseball under its new rule-set in 2023. But Mookie Betts of the Dodgers actually produced slightly more WAR than Acuña, 8.4 to 8.2, because he had the defensive edge: Betts was +5 runs better than average while playing not just his natural right field (which is Acuña’s position, too), but also second base and even shortstop. It wouldn’t be wrong to pick Acuña anyway — he did have the higher batting average, OBP, slugging percentage and OPS — so much of this comes down to preference around playing styles and parsing small differences in the meaning of “valuable.”

As incredible — and incredibly fun — as Acuña’s season was, though, we’re leaning toward Betts for the simple reason that his Dodgers went into the season looking as vulnerable as they had in years, then ended up weathering the most total days of IL time missed in the league this season, with its pitching staff particularly decimated. And yet, L.A. still won 100 games for a third consecutive season and captured its 10th division title in 11 years — a huge testament to Betts’ performance, plus his ability to help stabilize a situation that would have thrown other teams into chaos.

Sure, he got a boost from MVP co-finalist Freddie Freeman in that regard as well, but Acuña had his own MVP candidate sidekick in Matt Olson. All told, Betts had the most WAR in the league, for a team that needed every last bit of it. That’s an MVP formula, as far as we’re concerned.