No Defense, No College Football Playoff Spot

Welcome back to The RPO column! The football season is flying by. Before we jump into this week’s topics…

Weekly Shoutout: Connecticut Sun forward Alyssa Thomas, who somehow didn’t win WNBA MVP despite earning the most first-place votes. This year, Thomas set the league’s single-season assist record and set the record for most career triple-doubles (11). She’s been amazing since returning from a torn Achilles in 2021.

Let’s jump in!

For true College Football Playoff contenders, defense matters: Run

It’s obvious we’re in an era of college football where having an elite offense is crucial to winning. But to win a championship, you can’t disregard defense. LSU found that out the hard way against Ole Miss last weekend. The Tigers gave up 55 points in a devastating defeat that likely ends their hopes of sneaking into the College Football Playoff, despite having one of the nation’s best offenses.

The next team in danger of seeing their season go up in smoke because of a leaky defense: USC.

Coach Lincoln Riley, who admitted after a win over Colorado that his defense “simply didn’t tackle” on some plays in the second half, said he still has confidence in defensive coordinator Alex Grinch. But the Trojans gave up 41 points to Colorado, raising the level of concern surrounding USC’s defensive unit for the second straight season. The Trojans boast a high-powered offense headlined by reigning Heisman winner Caleb Williams. Their defense isn’t anywhere close to matching that unit’s level.

This sort of unbalance has been typical of Riley’s teams dating back to his time at Oklahoma: 

USC has struggled defensively because it’s given up 71 plays of 10 yards or more (tied for 91st) and has missed 60 tackles through five games, according to Pro Football Focus. That’s more than any other team currently ranked in the AP top 10. The Trojans have given up 744 yards after the catch per PFF, which is also the most of any top-10 team. (Florida State is the only other top-10 team that’s given up more than 600 YAC so far.)

Despite not having yet faced an offense that ranks higher than 50th in F+ ratings, USC has been abysmal. (Colorado marked the highest offense the Trojans faced, entering their contest ranked 53rd.)

Here’s how the current top-10 teams stacked up in offensive and defensive F+ through five weeks:

The chart below shows how balanced national champions have been since the CFP began. Nine of 10 boasted an offense in the top 10 of F+. None have had a defense ranked lower than 16th.

With the meat of Pac-12 play on the horizon, USC will have to figure out its defensive issues. Otherwise, this will be another disappointing season for an exciting Riley-coached team.

Desmond Ridder should remain the Falcons starting QB: Option

The Falcons are nearing a critical juncture for the future of their franchise after starting this season 2-2. Third-year coach Arthur Smith was expected to have the Falcons offense flying, but it appears that the play of quarterback Desmond Ridder is holding the unit back.

Atlanta’s offense features very exciting young skill players, including running back Bijan Robinson, tight end Kyle Pitts and receiver Drake London. Yet the Falcons began the week ranked 25th in offensive DVOA and 26th in pass plays of 10 yards or more. Despite ranking 10th in points allowed and seventh in yards allowed, Atlanta is 25th in points scored and 24th in total yards gained. Out of 34 QBs, RBSDM.com ranks Ridder 32nd in EPA per play and 31st in completion rate over expected (minus-5.3%).

Ridder tossed two picks against the Jaguars in London, but Smith told reporters Monday that he doesn’t plan on benching Ridder for backup Taylor Heinicke. There are a handful of factors making this decision difficult. What Smith and Falcons GM Terry Fontenot cannot afford to do is wait on deciding which way to go. 

The 2024 NFL draft is shaping up to be a great class, especially at QB with USC’s Caleb Williams and UNC’s Drake Maye at the top of the board. Atlanta has recently missed out on some potential franchise QBs by winning pointless games at the end of the season. In 2018, the Falcons won three straight games at the end of the season to finish 7-9. Kyler Murray went no. 1 overall to the Cardinals; Atlanta drafted offensive lineman Chris Lindstrom with the 14th pick. In 2019, the Falcons won their last four games to finish 7-9 again. Joe Burrow (Bengals, no. 1), Tua Tagovailoa (no. 5) and Justin Herbert (Chargers, no. 6) were chosen in the top-10; Atlanta took corner A.J. Terrell at no. 16.

The NFC South is weak this year, making the idea of pushing for a playoff berth tempting. Starting Heinicke could give the Falcons their best shot at the postseason. But that would mean already giving up on Ridder, a 2022 third-rounder who’s played only eight games, and potentially turn a top-10 pick into a top-20 choice.

To their credit, the Falcons have a decent track record of drafting both foundational players in recent seasons at different points in the draft. They still haven’t landed a franchise QB, though. Sticking with Ridder could signal Atlanta is content with letting the season play out — even if it means losing. That choice could land them better draft capital, which will be highly coveted in spring, but if the goal is to reach the postseason with a middling record, then playing Heinicke is something the Falcons need to do now. Otherwise, they might cost themselves a premium draft pick by winning pointless games at the end of the year again.

Shoving your assistant coaches: Pass

Trent Dilfer’s rough start to life at UAB got worse Saturday. As Dilfer’s Blazers dropped to 1-4 during a 35-23 loss to Tulane, the first-year coach was caught blowing up at one of his assistants after a crucial penalty:

This is not a great look! Dilfer joined UAB after coaching for four years at Lipscomb Academy, a Nashville prep school. He’s coached the well-respected Elite 11 QB competition, which annually hosts some of the country's top QB prospects. However, Dilfer’s credentials — which include being a Super Bowl-winning QB and longtime ESPN analyst — are certainly not grounds for publicly undressing an assistant in such a demonstrative way. It’s never warranted, no matter how successful a head coach is. That hasn’t stopped college coaches from displaying hostile behavior in the past.

In 2015, Brian Kelly went after assistant David Grimes at Notre Dame. (He later apologized.):

And in 2012, Tommy Tuberville slapped graduate assistant Kevin Oliver. (After the game, he insisted he was trying to get Oliver off the field.):

It’s worth noting that Saturday marked Dilfer’s second viral blow-up — In August 2021, while coaching at Lipscomb, he went viral for yelling at and shoving one of his players:

Before the college season began, Dilfer issued a bizarre warning to any coaches who would potentially poach his players through the transfer portal. He has a well-documented history of temper tantrums. Let’s just hope these moments become less frequent than the rate at which he threw interceptions during his NFL career.