Is This Momentum for Kenny Pickett? And Can He Keep it Going?

These questions and answers are excerpted from this week’s edition of Mike Tanier’s NFL mailbag, available every Thursday at The Messenger…

Will Kenny Pickett have sustained success following last week’s win in Cincy? – Harry Michelson, @hmich176 on Threads

“Success” is a relative matter. A 24-of-38, 278 yards, zero-touchdown stat line against an opponent that kept handing the ball back to the Steelers is certainly progress of a sort. Pat Freiermuth’s nine-catch effort is an encouraging sign that Pickett can, in fact, complete passes over the middle. The Steelers were also capable of executing basic plays like rollouts without tripping over each other, though that’s an example of setting a really low bar for competence.

The Steelers face the Cardinals and Patriots over the next two weeks. My guess is that the Blame Canada/Pickett is FIXED storyline will grow stronger against two weakling opponents. I won’t start to believe it until I see, I dunno, a two-touchdown game from Pickett against a tough defense? That is not a lot to ask from a first-round pick in his second season.

I know Steelers fans really really REALLY want to believe in Pickett. It’s best to not overreact to a 16-point offensive explosion against a reeling opponent. Doing so might make future disappointment all the more bitter.

Seems this year a lot of teams are playing insipid football for three quarters or so then saving themselves with late game heroics. Is there a way to identify which teams lead the league in self inflicted wounds? – Sean Weir, @seanweir023 on Threads.

When it comes to measuring quarter-by-quarter offense, DVOA from FTN Network is the best tool in the NFL world. Unfortunately, the quarterly splits are hard to access, due to some business upheaval: you need an FTN subscription (worth every penny), but some of the more technical splits can only be accessed by downloading a spreadsheet and doing a little sorting. That said, most of the splits a typical fan/fantasy gamer/wagerer would need are easy to get with a subscription. 

The three teams with the widest disparity between early- and late-game offense this year are the Steelers, Falcons and Packers. The Steelers and Falcons are dealing with poorly-coordinated offenses and scuffling B-tier quarterback prospects; both teams have some late-game success by just dinking-and-dunking and letting their playmakers make plays. The Packers are a young, loosey-goosey, mistake-prone team that has benefited from some late-game prevent defenses, and also facing the Chargers.

The Eagles offense ranks 19th in first-half DVOA but second in second-half DVOA. Their offense ranks first in the NFL in the third quarter. That’s more of an example of an offense going from “average” to “outstanding” than the previous examples. 

Early-game offensive success or failure is a strong predictor of future success or failure: if a team is truly great, it generally leaves the tunnel great. Late-game changes in offensive production tend to be situational (feasting on prevent defenses when trailing). Comeback capability isn’t really a separate skill from offensive capability, so a team that stinks for three quarters then comes back to win on the final drive probably has a fine defense and a lucky offense. Take that as you will, Steelers fans.