Can Dak Prescott Finally Find a Way Against 49ers?

Every week, a rotating panel of The Messenger's most brilliant football minds will provide the answers to the most pressing questions going into each NFL Sunday…

Why will, or why won’t, Dak Prescott finally slay the beast that is the 49ers defense on Sunday night?

Mike Tanier: He will not. The Cowboys defense is only average against the run and, per DVOA, ranks 27th against passes over the middle. The 49ers are great at running and passing over the middle. It’s what they are built for. 

Also, the Cowboys offense isn’t that good: 16th in DVOA. (The 49ers are second.) The Cowboys offense mops up victories after the defense scores points off turnovers and all but shuts the opponent out. Maybe they will be better when they get some offensive linemen back, but the Cowboys just feel built to lose games like this.

If the Cowboys do win, it will be because Micah Parsons has three strip sacks or something.

Kaelen Jones: The data backs up what I’ve seen with my eyes. The Cowboys offense has been fool’s gold, not currently performing like a top-five unit. (This is not me saying they’re bad, they’re just “pretty good.”) Tyron Smith returning to the lineup is a good sign, but the Niners’ front seven is one of the best units in football. Good luck.

Gary Gramling: The one thing I’m curious about: The Cowboys are the kind of franchise that would spend their entire offseason obsessing over a single opponent, and that opponent would be the 49ers. I’m curious to see what kind of adjustments Mike McCarthy will have to save Dak Prescott from another meltdown against this defense. Or perhaps this game serves as the multiverse timeline where Tony Pollard stays healthy during last year’s conference semifinal game.

With all four teams at 2–2 entering Sunday, who will finish the day in first place in the AFC South (Jaguars play the Bills in London, Texans are in Atlanta, Titans visit the Colts)?

Gramling: I’ll go with losses for the Jaguars and Texans and a tie between the Titans and Colts, putting them tied atop the division. I’ll do this because 1) The Jaguars will ultimately right the ship and win the division by three games, and 2) If the Titans and Colts tie I’ll point back to this and claim some kind of clairvoyance.

Tanier: It will be the Titans, heaven help us, with their mid-1970s offensive scheme and late-2010s offensive personnel. If it’s the Texans, heaven also help us, the takes will be hotter than the heart of the sun. So many people are gushing over the Texans right now that I am not really sure what will happen if anyone actually watches one of their games. 

Jones: Titans vs. Colts is low-key exciting. The Colts have already shown this season they are going to fight until it’s over. The Titans under Mike Vrabel are of a similar ilk. I think the winner of the matchup is on top of the division. I’ll avoid being a coward here and pick the Colts outright. 

If you were calling the shots for the Saints, what would you do with your quarterback situation (an injured Derek Carr, Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill) in Foxboro?

Tanier: What I would do involves a time machine and a strict spending limit. I would sprinkle some TaysomCat atop a Winston game-plan, but I find the reality more entertaining: Winston is on the roster for cap-amortization purposes (the Saints had to guarantee his salary to slash the tail off his contract), but they have so little faith in him that they would rather have Carr throwing slowpitch softball. Two years from now they will be doing the exact same thing — Taysom and all — with the back end of Carr’s contract.

Gramling: I would keep Winston off the field, build a meek gameplan for Carr’s snaps (he loathes facing Belichick defenses), and give Taysom Hill a season-high in QB snaps, working a ton of downfield play-action shots. Just dare the Patriots’ B-team defensive backs to make some plays on a bunch of arm punts in Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed's general directions.

Jones: Roll with Jameis. The Saints beat the Patriots last time they played, which was a Jameis start. Belichick had enough respect for Winston to call him a good QB before they met in 2021. No Christian Gonzalez, no Matthew Judon. Unless J.C. Jackson captures old form, might as well test this secondary as often as possible. I wouldn’t fear Mac Jones capitalizing on any turnovers.

How do you feel about Zach Wilson’s chances at sustaining momentum against the Broncos in the Nathaniel Hackett Bowl?

Tanier: I’m sorry. I missed the part where Zach Wilson was “good” last week. I keep hearing about how Wilson had a good game and keep checking my schedule to see if I missed some Tuesday morning Disney-Plus event. The game I watched had three Jets scoring drives, one ending with a field goal, one 41-yards with the help of a 15-yard penalty. The Wilson I saw could not move the ball in the first quarter or from the middle of the third quarter on, with a fumbled exchange in a late-and-close situation. It was a non-catastrophically-awful game with a pretty box score.

I also don’t understand who is supposed to be seeking revenge from whom in the Nathanial Hackett Bowl. Is Hackett seeking vengeance from the team who fired him with overwhelming cause? If the Broncos win, does Sean Payton somehow feel vindicated for climbing over two carcasses to reach 2–3? Does anyone on earth think Hackett would be coaching anywhere higher than the Big-12 if he weren’t the cheese in an Aaron Rodgers trap?

Gramling: Well, I’ll take this opportunity to reveal myself as Nathaniel Hackett apologist. He built functional offenses around Kyle Orton and Blake Bortles, among others. Hindsight is a funny thing: Zero people were predicting a future MVP award for Aaron Rodgers in March of 2019, let alone the two he won under Hackett’s guidance. The Broncos front office was foolish enough to hand over enormous power to Russell Wilson two offseasons ago, then panicked enough to throw Hackett under the bus for management issues that pale in comparison to Sean Payton’s problems through the 2023’s first month (yet, this year, Jerry Rosburg’s cell phone remains strangely silent save for the occasional Pokemon Go gym raid alert). ANYWAY! As for Wilson, last week was the first time it looked like there’s a base to build off of. The fact that the Broncos defense usually calls it a day by the third series also plays in his favor, as the Jets should be able to lean on the run. Realistically, the Jets are a wild-card-sneak-in team at best, but if they’re going to do something shocking and wacky in January, it probably helps to have the OC who schemed his way to 45 points with Blake Bortles in a playoff game in Pittsburgh.

Jones: Nathaniel Hackett has a chance to embarrass the man who, unprompted, said he sucked at his job. He has a chance to embarrass the workplace that fired him. In. Their. Stadium! I doubt there will be any Goldfinger jokes in the QB room this week. All that said: Zach Wilson is going to have another (relatively) good outing. He has to, right?

Now that the Bears are on the board, at what date and time will the Carolina Panthers register their next victory?

Gramling: November 5, 7:11 p.m. ET

Tanier: On October 15th, at 4 PM, after a 24-point loss to the Dolphins, the Panthers will achieve a moral victory when they reach their bye week with Bryce Young (relatively) healthy.

Jones: …