Caleb Williams Keeps It All Under Control

The snap bounced off Caleb Williams’s hands and dribbled across the ground to his right. He started to lunge for it, only to bump into his tailback, but kept his feet, scooping the ball up more than 10 yards into his own backfield. It already felt like an eternity had passed.

Williams picked his head up as two San José State defenders closed in, but his eyes were looking downfield. He shuffled his feet, squared his shoulders and, off his back foot, launched the throw. The Los Angeles Coliseum crowd gasped, then roared as the ball dropped into the hands of Tahj Washington 45 yards downfield; Washington scampered the remaining 40 yards, untouched, into the end zone, a near-catastrophe transformed into a Heisman highlight.

Washington wasn’t aware Williams had fumbled the snap, thinking the play was still on schedule as he shook his defender. “I just heard the crowd,” Washington explained after the game. “When I looked around, the ball was right there.”

This is Caleb Williams’s superpower: Even when things seem out of his control, he can find ways to reclaim it. It’s one of several reasons most consider this season simply a formality before his next major step. On one hand, that course of thinking undervalues the significance of what could be his final year as a Trojan. On the other, it speaks to the massive imprint he’s already left on the world of college football: winning a Heisman, restoring a program’s national relevance, and becoming a trendsetter in the NIL space — all while living up to a five-star billing.

Williams’s feats have made him his era’s defining player. He’s maximized his value and wielded agency in a way that no player has before, setting the standard for modern quarterbacking with both his play and willingness to embrace the spotlight.

Still, there’s more the 21-year-old plans to accomplish. Before the season started, Williams reminded the world that, despite expectations, going pro isn’t a given. He told ESPN that entering the NFL draft after his junior season is “for sure now going to be an in-the-moment decision at the end of the year.”

“It's my third year,” Williams said. “Being around these guys and in college and enjoying it, we'll have to see at the end of this year.”

Debate over what this season means for Williams will continue, but his sights are set on college football immortality. 

“There’s never been a two-time Heisman winner with a national championship,” he told The QB Room Podcast earlier this summer. “I wanna be able to make history.”

It’s taken a village for Williams to get this far. During his Heisman Trophy acceptance speech last December, he told the story of a car ride home when he was 10. He told his father, Carl, “I wanted to be a football player. I wanted to be a quarterback.” At that moment, a plan was set in motion: Nutritionists, sports psychologists, and passing experts supplemented dieting, regimented sleep cycles and early-morning workouts.

Gonzaga College High School (D.C.) coach Randy Trivers was part of that village. The thousands of players he’s had during a 30-year coaching career gives him a distinct comprehension of Williams’s uniqueness. Last December, from an upper-row seat inside the Lincoln Center’s Appel Room, Trivers watched Williams thank him for helping the QB become one of 88 players in the entire history of college football to win a Heisman.

“That's a different sort of category when you talk about being awarded that award,” Trivers said during a phone interview. “That's another stratosphere.”

At 6-foot-1 and 215 pounds, Williams is an exceptional athlete whose pocket feel and escapability allow him to keep plays alive when most have no business doing so. Time and again, he maneuvers around would-be sacks to find receivers downfield or pull away for big runs himself. That athleticism — paired with an elastic, cannon arm that generates ludicrous velocity — is what helped Williams win the Heisman as a sophomore. He shines in high-pressure situations.

The data reinforce just how amazing Williams is under duress:

Minutes into the new college football season — a full quarter before Williams’s converted that broken play into a long TD — a pair of SJSU pass rushers breached USC’s backfield. Williams calmly accelerated away from pressure, wheeling upfield for a nine-yard pickup.

“You just shake your head, man,” one NFL scout attending the game quipped from inside the press box. “They can’t even touch him.”

When Washington is asked if, during their time together in Los Angeles, he’s ever noticed the QB get rattled, the wideout sounds surprised at the notion. “At the end of the day,” Washington says, “he’s gonna be a playmaker.”

Williams’s superstar potential was obvious well before his college career. Trivers named him the varsity starter as a freshman. Even then, the authenticity and self-expression that made Williams a star in college — from his painted nails to his fierce competitiveness — resonated with his peers. 

“Caleb is not afraid to fail,” Trivers says.

What truly sets Williams apart, Trivers said, is his aura of calm amid chaos. As a sophomore against powerhouse DeMatha (Md.), he rallied Gonzaga from a 20-point first-half deficit, then survived three lead changes in the final 29 seconds of regulation. Williams bent the moment to his will, throwing a game-winning Hail Mary touchdown as time expired in a 46–43 win.

“Caleb needs to be the one,” Trivers says. “I’m not comparing Caleb to an athlete like Michael Jordan — yet — but … that dude, mentally, was on another level. That's where I see Caleb.”

Williams, rated 247Sports’ no. 2 QB prospect of the 2021 class, committed to Oklahoma and coach Lincoln Riley — offering to even join as a walk-on while the Sooners pursued another top QB prospect. He had offers from all over the country, including juggernauts like Alabama, Clemson and Georgia. But he chose the Sooners and Riley, whose knack for developing NFL-caliber QBs played a role in Williams heading to Norman.

Spencer Rattler, a Heisman favorite entering the 2021 season, held OU’s starting gig. Williams would have to wait his turn. In the meantime, he made sporadic cameos in the early weeks of the season, teasing his big-play potential with long completions and runs. Despite Rattler not living up to the Heisman hype, the Sooners were undefeated heading into the Red River Showdown against Texas. OU found itself down 28–7 early in the second quarter when Williams subbed in on a fourth-and-short. He kept the ball and split a tackle, before cutting upfield for a 66-yard touchdown run to give OU life.

Going into the break, the Sooners still trailed 38–20. Williams took over in the second half, Oklahoma scoring 25 consecutive points with Williams throwing for two touchdowns. The Sooners came back to win 55-48 in one of the most thrilling installments in the rivalry’s history.

Just as Williams solidified himself as the Sooners’ QB1, he was dealt a curveball. In late November, Riley left OU to become USC’s head coach. Five weeks later, Williams became college football’s biggest star to enter the transfer portal. He considered staying at Oklahoma, but within two days of his portal decision, UCF transfer QB Dillon Gabriel committed to the Sooners. His decision became clear: He would reunite with Riley at USC.

It’s a choice that epitomizes the control Williams has leveraged throughout his career. Not only did he choose an ideal on-field setup, but he also joined a program that stood to maximize his NIL. 

Williams is one of 22 college QBs who began the season featured on On3’s Top 100 NIL valuations, with a $2.6 million estimate. He ranked fourth overall among athletes and second among QBs (Texas freshman Arch Manning ranked first). Williams’s latest NIL ventures include national ad spots for Wendy’s and Dr. Pepper, the latter featuring painted nails styled by his mother, Dayna Price, a nail technician.

None of the off-field shine is possible, however, without consistent, elite-level play on the field. In his debut USC season, Williams set school records for total touchdowns (52), passing yards (4,537) and total offense (4,919 yards). He led the Trojans to an 11–3 record and their first top-10 final College Football Playoff ranking since 2017. He became USC’s first Heisman winner since Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush went back-to-back in 2004 and ‘05. Williams could become the first player to win two consecutive Heismans since Ohio State running back Archie Griffin (1974-75). Yet, as impressive as all of that is, there’s one specific goal that he would like to achieve this season.

“The reason why I play, other than some small things, is to be immortal,” Williams told The QB Room. “And to be immortal you’ve got to win national championships.”

Williams can only control so much.

For much of the country, the lasting images of USC’s 2022 season are Williams in tears on the sideline after a loss to Utah (who sacked him seven times) in the Pac-12 championship, and Tulane celebrating a 15-point comeback over the Trojans in the final four minutes of the Cotton Bowl.

Williams couldn’t make USC’s offensive line — which allowed 132 QB pressures and 117 hurries in 2022, per Pro Football Focus — better at pass protection. He couldn’t stop the Trojans defense from giving up 29.2 points per game (tied-93rd). And he couldn’t help popping his hamstring on a 59-yard run against Utah during the Pac-12 title game.

One game into the 2023 season, some of the same uncontrollable variables that stymied USC’s CFP chances last year are hanging over Williams and his squad’s title aspirations. The Trojans gave up two sacks and 10 QB hurries against SJSU and allowed the Spartans to score 28 points.

Williams offered a measured perspective after the win, citing an early need for better consistency. He huddled with team leaders mid-game, telling them that the Trojans have “a special team” with “a long way to go and a lot to get better at.”

If Williams stays at USC after this season, he’ll be both the Trojans’s final starting signal-caller of their Pac-12 tenure and the first starter of their Big Ten era. Could missing out on a Heisman or a national championship this season really be enough to entice Williams to stay for another season? Or could doing something unprecedented — like becoming the first three-time Heisman winner — compel him to return for another college season?

The bewildered gasps and chuckles from NFL scouts inside the press box throughout USC’s season-opener suggest the league would wait for Williams, even until 2025. His talent is unquestionable and the unprecedented nature of his college career off the field isn’t giving anyone pause. “Everything I hear about him is positive,” an NFL assistant coach tells The Messenger.

Williams’s decision could be the last chance for him to exercise full autonomy until his second or third NFL contract. He chose Oklahoma as a recruit, and chose USC after entering the transfer portal; the NFL Draft takes away his ability to solely determine where he plays professionally. And unlike NIL — in which there isn’t a cap on how much a player can earn — there’s a salary range determined for each draft slot, even the no. 1 pick. (For reference, 2023 no. 1 pick Bryce Young and the Panthers agreed on a four-year deal worth $37 million in total value — an average of $9.48 million per year, which more than triples Willliams’s current $2.6 million NIL valuation.)

Careers in the NFL are made or broken based on situations players are dropped into. We haven’t heard of a first-overall pick leveraging their preferences to alter the draft since Eli Manning told the Chargers he wouldn’t play for them in 2004. The Chargers took him first overall anyway, then traded him to the Giants.

Williams hasn’t made any sort of declarations. (With North Carolina’s Drake Maye being a similar-caliber prospect, there’s not that much potential leverage, regardless.) In February, he told People Magazine his “no. 1 spot” is the Dolphins, with the 49ers, Raiders and Falcons rounding out his top choices. Still, even for someone as intentional as Williams is, it’s fair to question how much stock should be put into a casual offseason quote from a soon-to-be multi-millionaire in his early 20’s suggesting he’d like to work in destination cities like Miami, San Francisco, Las Vegas or Atlanta. Plus, hypothetically mentioning those teams is much different from demanding to be drafted by them or an outright dismissal.

Preseason betting odds suggest the teams most likely to land 2024’s no. 1 pick are the Cardinals (5.5 over/under win total), Texans (5.5 o/u), Buccaneers (6.5 o/u) and Colts (6.5 o/u). The Cardinals and Bucs, along with the Broncos, Dolphins, 49ers, Packers and Patriots, sent scouts to check out USC’s season opener, doing their homework on a player many believe has unlimited potential.

All external signs point to Williams going pro. He’s Vegas’s favorite to be the 2024 draft’s No. 1 pick — which has always been the plan, one that he and his father mapped out during Williams’s childhood. Williams even told ESPN his “dream and goal was to go three-and-out.”

Dreams and goals can certainly change. But if the only person on earth who isn’t certain Caleb Williams will turn pro next spring is Caleb Williams, it’s fitting that he’s the only person on earth who could decide that.

That’s a level of control he alone could exercise.