That Broncos Winning Streak? A Healthy O-Line Makes a World of Difference

The difference between a surprise playoff contender and a team circling the bottom of the standings is often something as simple as a healthy offensive line.

Take the Denver Broncos, now 6–5 and on a five-game winning streak that includes wins over impressive opponents like the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills and Cleveland Browns. There are many explanations for the Broncos’ surge, from the prosaic (15 opponents turnovers in the last four games) to the philosophical (Sean Payton’s “culture” taking hold, Russell Wilson’s return from Planet Famebrain). One obvious, major factor in the Broncos’ recent success, however, is often overlooked: the offensive line of (left to right) Garett Bolles, Quinn Meinerz, Lloyd Cushenberry, Ben Powers and Mike McGlinchey has only missed a tiny handful of snaps this season. 

Bolles and the others are not the legendary Hogs. They aren’t even on par with the current Philadelphia Eagles offensive line. There’s not a Pro Bowler in the bunch. But they are all capable veterans. More importantly, they are all healthy, so Sean Payton is not forced to build whole game plans out of slot screens in an effort to keep Wilson out of traction.

The Broncos offensive line is playing well at a time when opposing defenses are starting to succumb to injuries: see Sunday, when the Broncos racked up 169 rushing yards against the mighty Cleveland Browns, with Myles Garrett playing with one arm soon to be tied up in a sling. The Broncos average 2.9 yards per rush before contact, the 12th best figure in the NFL, per Pro Football Reference. Their three-headed backfield of Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin is getting a sizable boost from stable, reliable blocking.

The Broncos’ sack rates are unspectacular: Wilson is sacked on 9.4% of his dropbacks, the seventh-worst rate in the NFL. But Wilson causes many of his own sacks by holding the ball a tick too long. And again: We’re not talking about an elite offensive line, just one that has kept the Broncos in the Wild-Card hunt and out of the fire the coach/cut the quarterback conversation.  

Other teams have not been nearly so fortunate. 

Offensive Lines That Stink, Stank, Stunk

Do you know who Carter Warren and Max Mitchell are? How about Joshua Ezeudu? Have you ever heard of Vederian Lowe?

Warren is the fourth-round rookie who started at left tackle for the New York Jets in Week 12. Mitchell, a second-year backup, has started on the right side for several weeks. Each has struggled, to put it politely. Each is the third player the Jets have been forced to start at their position in 2023.

The Jets have also started Xavier Newman, a former undrafted free agent acquired in midseason, at right guard twice in recent weeks. You can chart the Jets’ offensive slide from “awful” to “OMG how is this even happening” based on what combination of Warren, Mitchell and Newman are on the field at the same time. 

Ezeudu is the New York Giants’ third-string left tackle who started for five weeks in the absence of Pro Bowler Andrew Thomas. The Giants, in desperation, moved Justin Pugh from guard to left tackle to replace the ineffective Ezeudu. That caused a chain reaction that forced fifth-round rookie Marcus McKethan into the lineup at right guard, where he was promptly bulldozed by the 49ers defense. 

The Giants have started three different left tackles, right guards and left guards this season, as well as two centers and two right tackles,with Pugh and others performing double duty. The failure of 2022 first-round pick Evan Neal to develop has further limited the Giants’ line, but even an effective Neal could only help so much when flanking a bunch of randos. 

Lowe started at left and right tackle for the New England Patriots this season. Per Sports Info Solutions, he has the worst blown block rate of any lineman who played more than 100 snaps this season, with miscues on 12.0% of his pass-blocking attempts. Trent Brown and Mike Onwenu have returned to relegate Lowe to the bench, but the Patriots are still facing rolling emergencies at both guard positions, with center David Andrews doing his best to remind everyone of the good old days.

It may be a little unfair to single out third-stringers like Warren, Mitchell, Ezeudu, Lowe and the others, all of whom are doing their best under difficult circumstances. Or perhaps it’s much more fair to mention them once in a while instead of criticizing Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, their various backups, Bill Belichick, Brian Daboll and Robert Saleh for the collapses of their teams. The quarterbacks and coaches deserve a share of the blame, but they combine to receive about 99.9% of it. Third stringers scattered across the offensive line? No excuse, coach. Stand in there and fling it deep, Tommy DeVito. 

The Giants, Jets and Patriots were likely to be mediocre under any circumstances in 2023. They are terrible because of severe injury plagues on their offensive lines. 

Healthy Offensive Lines, and Also the Seahawks

The Kansas City Chiefs have had one of the NFL’s healthiest lines in 2023. Donovan Smith, Joe Thuney, Creed Humprhey, Trey Smith and Jawaan Taylor have not missed a start this year. You probably do not need to be told that the Chiefs have an excellent offensive line, nor that they have needed one in a season in which their wide receivers catch footballs like they are wearing oven mitts.

The Buffalo Bills have also had enviable health on the offensive line: Dion Dawkins, Connor McGovern, Mitch Morse, O’Cyrus Torrence and Spencer Brown have only left games, at the ends of blowouts. Whatever the heck is wrong with the Bills this year, it cannot be blamed on poor line play. 

The same can be said of the Atlanta Falcons line of Jake Matthews, Matthew Bergeron, Drew Dalman, Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary (who missed a chunk of one game): if anything they are saving Arthur Smith and Desmond Ridder from themselves. 

The Eagles? All Pro center Jason Kelce has started every game, as has left tackle Jordan Mailata. All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson missed his first start against the Bills with a groin injury. There has been some shuffling at guard, but a team with stars at three positions can make do at guard.

There’s no perfect 1-to-1 correlation between offensive line health and success. The Jaguars, for example, have been playing musical chairs on the left side of their line all year, while the Buccaneers have only had to swap out their left guard this season. It would be foolish to think that would be such a direct correspondence. Offensive-line health is a driving force in each team’s success or failure, not the only force. It’s also an overlooked factor, to a comical degree, even by those of us paid to watch, analyze and report.

Offensive-line injuries don’t prompt all-points bulletins from fantasy services. The dropoff between an experienced backup tackle and a rookie third-stringer is easy to underestimate. It’s more fun and profitable to goof on the Patriots’ quarterback situation than sift through the 10 different linemen the team has been forced to start.

Let’s look at one last team before we abandon this tour of NFL offensive lines: the Seattle Seahawks. Tackles Charles Cross and Abe Lucas both got injured in the season opener. Stone Forsythe and Jake Curhan replaced them. Curhan has the NFL’s second-worst blown-block rate on pass plays in the NFL (10.1%), Forsythe the sixth-worst (8.4%) per Sports Info Solutions.

When Cross returned, Forsythe moved from left to right tackle to replace Curhan, who was waived to make room for 41-year old Jason Peters. Peters gradually replaced Forsythe, who was only faring slightly better on the right side than the left. Unfortunately, Peters got knocked out of the Thanksgiving loss early — Peters has had a habit of not finishing his starts since the end of his Eagles tenure — forcing Forsythe back into the lineup to get steamrolled by 49ers pass rushers. There have also been injuries at guard and center, but you get the idea.

What’s wrong with Geno Smith? Why are the Seahawks fading? Such mysteries are easier to solve when you examine the problems on the offensive line.

It’s the Blocking, Silly

Bolles deserves a Pro Bowl selection; keep that in mind when you cast your ballots. Cushenberry, once a sore spot in the middle of the Broncos line, also deserves consideration. Payton and his staff deserve credit for assembling and keeping this line (with newcomers McGlinchey and Powers) together, even when the Broncos started out 1–5.

Kudos aside, luck plays a significant role when it comes to NFL injuries. The Broncos could easily be the Giants or Patriots if they were down to their third-string tackles. Conversely, the Giants or Patriots could be hanging around the Wild-Card picture with their starting lines intact, just as they did last year.

The NFL turns into a sprawling morality play this time of year, when the details of who got hurt become hard to keep straight. This team wanted it more. That team quit on their coach. Quarterbacks with clean pockets are labeled winners. Coaches earn mastermind labels for intricate play designs, usually made possible by the fact that the guys who practiced those schemes in August are still on the field in December.

Enjoy the coach-and-quarterback soap opera — it’s much of what makes the NFL so compelling. Just stop for a moment and check the injury reports and starting lineups to see who is playing along the front five. Chances are, you’ll discover a simpler, less dramatic reason why teams are winning and losing than the ones everyone keeps talking about.