Youngkin Political Rise Damaged by ‘Epic Failure’ in Virginia

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s rise to national prominence took a hit on Tuesday night after Republicans failed to flip the state Senate and lost control of the House of Delegates, after a campaign that consumed the Republican governor’s time, political capital, and even some of his personal fortune.

Youngkin wasn’t on the ballot. But his focus on these off-year elections made him the face of the campaign, turning the races into a pseudo-referendum on his leadership and his ability to solve Republicans’ unpopular positions on abortion. Youngkin, unlike Republicans across the country, did not run away from the abortion issue – repeatedly saying that he would sign a 15-week abortion limit should Republicans hold both houses. Democrats would have run on abortion no matter what, but the governor’s focus gave the party a hook. Nearly every race across the commonwealth became a referendum on reproductive rights, an issue that has propelled Democrats since the 2022 overturning of Roe v. Wade.

In ad after ad, Democratic candidates painted their Republican opponents as extremists on abortion. Russet Perry, a state Senate candidate in SD-31, one of the most competitive districts in Northern Virginia, attacked her GOP opponent, Juan Pablo Segura, arguing that he wanted to ban abortions in Virginia. “Criminalizing abortions is wrong,” she said in one ad. 

Meanwhile, Segura focused on painting Perry as soft on crime in his TV spots. Perry defeated him by five percentage points. 

The two chambers of Virginia’s legislature entered Tuesday narrowly divided, with Republicans in control of the House of Delegates and Democrats in control of the state Senate. With only a couple of races still outstanding, it is clear that Democrats will narrowly control both chambers in the wake of Tuesday’s election.

For Youngkin, the failure to flip the state Senate and the loss of the House of Delegates took the shine off someone who had been on the rise since winning the governor’s mansion in 2021.

“This is a huge defeat for Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, who invested much of himself in a number of targeted campaigns across the state,” wrote Bill Bolling, the former Republican lieutenant governor of Virginia.

“What an epic failure for Gov. Youngkin,” Fox News host Brian Kilmeade said on Wednesday morning, a significant comment given how much the conservative network had touted the Virginia governor.

“In a rare moment, I would suggest they hit the nail pretty well on the head,” said Jesse Ferguson, a Virginia native and Democratic strategist who was involved in races this cycle. “This election proved [Youngkin’s] record is hard to sell to the voters of Virginia. Last time around he could don a sweater vest and not be accountable for an actual record and this time around the record is what did him in.”

Youngkin’s involvement in these legislative races was significant, from recruitment to fundraising to messaging. The governor raised big money for his handpicked candidates on the ballot. Spirit of Virginia, his leadership PAC, raised nearly $19 million. Youngkin himself donated a little over $1.5 million, and GOP megadonors Thomas Peterffy and Jeffrey Yass donated $3 million and $2 million respectively. 

Peterffy, a brokerage CEO, is an especially enthusiastic Youngkin supporter who has continually floated a Youngkin presidential bid after the Virginia elections. He even suggested a Youngkin presidential bid last week in an interview with Forbes. 

Youngkin himself has not ruled out a run for the White House. On CNN Tuesday night, he said that he was focused on Virginia but did not say “no” when asked if he would seek the presidency. He did say, however, that he would not endorse anyone in the GOP primary and would support the eventual GOP nominee, which is likely to be former President Donald Trump. 

A late entry into the presidential contest is nothing but a donor fantasy, given that early voting state ballot deadlines have already passed. But the chatter around Youngkin hints at the scale of his ambitions and those of his backers leading up to Tuesday’s elections.

To Democrats, Tuesday was both a failure for Youngkin the candidate, and for his attempt to frame the 15-week abortion law he hoped to pass as a “consensus” position. On paper, it appeared to be a safe bet — 15 week abortion limits poll favorably, according to surveys conducted by Gallup and AP/NORC, which found a majority of Americans believe abortion should be allowed at the 15-week mark. But Republicans are learning the limits of issue polling, as Democrats still have the upper hand on reproductive rights. 

“Glenn Youngkin thought he had found a way to neutralize abortion as an issue for Democrats—and he spent time and money to sell it,” said Christina Reynolds, a top operative at Emily’s List, the progressive abortion access organization that was involved in the Virginia elections. “In doing so, he just proved that voters understand very clearly which party will protect their rights and which one will jeopardize them—and they voted accordingly.”

Reynolds added: “The abortion problem for Republicans is not how they sell the issue, it’s their agenda.”

Republican operatives in Virginia acknowledged that Youngkin went all in on these legislative races and came up short. 

David Rexrode, Youngkin's top political operative, acknowledged on Wednesday "it is clear we did not meet our goals" in the 2023 elections, but argued the governor and his political operation contributed to these campaigns "in an unprecedented way" and provided "a roadmap for Republican success even in competitive or difficult environments."

Some operatives noted that Youngkin’s approval rating in the states remains high. Others said that he has not only won a state that backed President Joe Biden by 10 percentage points in 2020 but that he has made races in that state clear tossups.

“It was a bad night. It is fair to say it was a bad night and that he and his team did not get what they wanted,” said Rory Cooper, a longtime Republican operative and partner at Purple Strategies. But, Cooper added, “you have to put that in perspective.”

“The governor did just about everything a governor can do to try to pull his party across the finish line. But a governor can’t also change the fundamentals of a race,” said Cooper. “Clearly, pro-choice voters across the country in these off-year elections were motivated based off of the changing dynamic on that issue. That enthusiasm is probably going to stick around.”

To Larry Sabato, founder and director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, Youngkin’s “governorship will [now] amount to a lot less than it would have had he won the legislature.” Virginia bars governors from running for consecutive terms as governor, meaning Youngkin will not be allowed to run for reelection in 2025.

“The campaign was all about him. All about him. … I mean, you couldn't escape him and he thought that would be enough,” said Sabato. “He is not going to be nearly as prominent as he has been as the it guy for the Republicans since he was elected. … He was golden. And now it is faux gold.”

For Democrats, the Republican failures on Tuesday gave them another check against Youngkin’s power and the ability to effectively stifle much of what he wanted to get done, likely forcing the governor to focus more on executive action than legislation in the coming two years. There is also a personal aspect to the loss: Democrats fumed when Youngkin won the governor’s mansion two years ago, with many believing his persona as an affable moderate hid his true conservative positions.

"Glenn Youngkin got elected on his rhetoric but was rejected last night on his record,” said Virginia Senate Democratic Caucus Chair Mamie Locke, who is set to become the first Black woman to serve as majority leader of the Virginia Senate. “He’s a red-vested Trojan Horse, masquerading himself as a moderate while waiting to unleash extremist laws once he got total control of state government.”

To Locke, Youngkin is now one thing: “A lame duck.”