Wisconsin Republicans Are Still Searching for a Senate Candidate. Democrats Know Who They Prefer

Wisconsin’s Senate race is one of the most high-profile contests in the country – but Republicans have yet to land on who will take on Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin.

A trio of potential GOP challengers has already bowed out, increasing the likelihood that Democrats could be gifted their dream scenario: Running against former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke.

Clarke, the flamethrowing conservative commentator, has openly teased a run and cited polling that shows him as the best positioned to take on Baldwin. But national Republicans have discounted the likelihood of Clarke mounting a campaign – while officials with the National Republican Senatorial Candidate have met with real estate developer Eric Hovde and businessman Scott Mayer, two Republicans considering running against Baldwin, they have not met with Clarke.

When asked by The Messenger about his potential Senate campaign, Clarke responded with a lengthy statement criticizing Baldwin. He argued that she has become the “quintessential Washington DC insider” who hasn’t authored “any major legislation.” While he emphasized that he does not have an announcement yet, Clarke sounded very much like a candidate. 

“I found it fascinating that when she announced for re-election, she never said why she should be re-elected. It’s because she has no record to run on. That’s called a sense of entitlement to think that the voters should send her back to represent them in the US Senate because she’s the incumbent with a lot of money,” Clarke said. “Wisconsin deserves better. It’s time for change.” 

To Democrats, running against Clarke in Wisconsin would look a lot like running against former President Donald Trump – for better or for worse.

“It would be essentially two Donald Trumps on one ballot,” Mandela Barnes, Wisconsin’s former lieutenant governor and 2022 Senate candidate, said about Clarke. “If you look at how David Clarke rose to prominence, it was the inflammatory statements, it was being the person who is so far out of the Republican mainstream that is why he is seen so favorably with the GOP base and… a campaign against him would be similar to that campaign against Donald Trump.”

Some of those inflammatory statements include when Clarke was briefly banned from X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, in 2018 after told his followers to make members of the media “TASTE THEIR OWN BLOOD.” In 2016, as a surrogate for the Trump campaign, he claimed the election was “rigged,” and said that it was “pitchfork and torches time in America.” 

Barnes noted that doesn’t necessarily mean Clarke has an easy path to winning the GOP nomination – “There are a lot of people who wanted Donald Trump to be the nominee in 2016. And we see what happened there,” he said – but added that where Clarke has “proven himself as a radical,” Hovde and Mayer would have to work to convince Republican voters that they are.

“Regardless of who it is, we are showing up as if it were an A-list candidate, even if they are down to the D-list,” Barnes said.

This week, Rep. Tom Tiffany, who represents northwestern Wisconsin, told a local outlet that he won’t run against Baldwin – instead seeking reelection to his House seat. 

“While Tammy Baldwin is vulnerable due to her record as a rubber stamp for President Biden, I can make the greatest impact continuing to serve the great people of Wisconsin in the House of Representatives,” Tiffany said. 

Republicans do see Baldwin as vulnerable. The Democratic senator will be on the same ballot as Biden, whose approval rating in the state has consistently been under 50%. But Baldwin has shown an ability to win tough races in Wisconsin and raise significant money to flood her Republican opponents, one reason why Republicans are looking at candidates who could self-fund their campaigns.

Tiffany is the third GOP House member to pass on a Senate bid. Republicans were heavily recruiting Rep. Mike Gallagher to seek a Senate bid but he passed, citing his work as the leading Republican on the House Select Committee on China as the reason for not running. Rep. Bryan Steil also said he’s not running. 

That leaves three potential candidates to take on Baldwin: Clarke, Hovde, and Mayer. 

National Republican strategists feel confident that either Hovde or Mayer will launch a campaign, and their ability to self-fund will allow them to wage a competitive primary campaign. Mayer told The Messenger on Wednesday that he has talked with Hovde, but declined to expand on what they have discussed. He restated that he will make a decision on a Senate campaign around Labor Day. 

Clarke’s potential candidacy, however, is delighting Democrats and worrying Republicans. He rose to national prominence as an early supporter of former President Donald Trump and served as Milwaukee County Sheriff from 2002 up until when he resigned in 2017. He spoke at the RNC convention in 2016 and came under fire during his tenure as sheriff for the poor conditions of Milwaukee County prisons. 

A Wisconsin GOP official told The Messenger that the party is attempting to keep the primary small, hoping to avoid a long and expensive affair. Clarke, the official said, has a dedicated base of support that will likely vault him into the top tier of contenders. They added that its unlikely both Hovde and Mayer both get in — one could run if the other doesn’t. 

Appearing on the John Fredericks Radio Show Wednesday afternoon, Clarke once again teased a Senate bid. 

“Nothing new to report there, but you’re right. I’ll say this much. Baldwin is very vulnerable, she knows that. Her campaign is very afraid of me. They’re doing opposition research on me and preparing. But I haven’t made a decision yet,” he said. 

He then went on to lay out his case against Baldwin: “She’s become an insider, a career politician, a reliable vote for Chuck Schumer, she’s authored no major legislation in her 20-25 years in Congress. It’s time for her to come home. She’s got no record, John.” He noted his wife has no problem with him running for Senate. 

While Clarke has been out of elected politics for some time, there is a devoted, right-wing base in Wisconsin that could make him the frontrunner in a Republican primary.

“He has this brash kind of style and this outsider status, but he also has a long history of incendiary comments,” said Kevin Seifert, a Wisconsin GOP consultant who served as an aide to former House Speaker Paul Ryan. 

In 2022, Seifert noted that the most effective GOP attacks against Barnes came when they used his own words against him. 

“Democrats already have all of Clarke’s statements and I would expect them to simply make Wisconsin voters aware of what he’s said previously. They don’t really need to say anything else,” he added. 

Baldwin’s campaign and Wisconsin Democrats have privately grown more confident as Republican after Republican bowed out of the contest. But Andrew Mamo, a spokesperson for the Baldwin campaign, said the operation is “still anticipating a competitive race” and there has been “no change in strategy” as Republicans bow out.

“Wisconsin is one of four toss-up states and that will remain no matter who is running against us. You have seen several Republicans bow out because they know how strong Tammy Baldwin is,” Mamo said. “But no matter who is on the ballot, it is going to be a competitive race.”

The dream scenario for Democrats, however, would be Clarke running in a competitive primary against someone like Hovde or Mayer.

That, said Arik Wolk, the Democratic Party of Wisconsin Rapid Response Director, would create a “chaotic nightmare scenario for Republicans.”

“Wisconsin is Wisconsin. It’s a state where four of the last six presidential elections have been decided by one percentage point or less,” said Wolk. “2024 is going to be no different, it is going to be competitive on the presidential level and the Senate level.”

Wisconsin Republicans found success in the Tea Party era, but recently the party has fallen in hard times and has lost 15 of the last 17 statewide elections. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson’s narrow reelection victory last year was a rare bright spot for Republicans in a state as they failed to defeat Democratic Gov. Tony Evers. 

In contrast with the way Republicans recruited in 2022, Senate Republicans have recruited well in key battleground states. They successfully lured West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice, a popular two-term incumbent, into the race against Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin. In Montana, national Republican strategists are excited about retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, and in Nevada, they are optimistic about retired Army Captain Sam Brown. 

But there are still areas of concern on the map, and Wisconsin is among them. A candidate hasn’t emerged in Michigan either, and in Arizona, a three-way race is producing more questions than answers. Republicans will also need to navigate competitive primaries in states like West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio.