Wisconsin Republicans Lose Their Best Shot at Defeating Tammy Baldwin

Wisconsin Rep. Mike Gallagher announced Friday that he would not run for the Senate seat held by Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, leaving Republicans without their top recruit in a critical race.

“I have a rare, bipartisan opportunity in the 118th Congress to help restore American strength, prevent war in the Pacific, and defend our basic freedoms from communist aggression,” Gallagher said in a statement. “Accomplishing this mission and serving Wisconsin’s 8th District deserve my undivided attention.” 

Gallagher instead is opting to seek reelection to his Green Bay-area House seat and focus on his role on the Select Committee on China.

“It’s obviously disappointing, but it would have been political malpractice not to try to recruit Mike Gallagher,” NRSC spokesman Tate Mitchell said in a statement. “We will have a strong candidate in Wisconsin.” 

A poll commissioned by the National Republican Senatorial Committee in late May found Gallagher trailing Baldwin, 47-46 percent. NRSC Chairman Steve Daines had name-checked Gallagher as a potential candidate multiple times. 

“Mike Gallagher would be a great candidate,” Daines said in March. “He’s the kind of candidate that with his distinguished service and then time in Congress, could win both the primary and general election.”

An adviser to Gallagher told The Messenger that he met with Daines multiple times along with his staff to deliberate on joining the race, but ultimately he decided he couldn’t abandon the commitments he made to his district and the Select Committee on China. Plus, he didn’t want to stretch out the recruitment process any longer so the GOP can put their best effort into flipping the seat.

“He didn’t feel like he could lead the China committee and campaign full-time for a Senate race, which is what will be required if you’re going to beat Tammy Baldwin,” the adviser said. “He’s the leading voice on the leading national security issue of our day.” 

While some potential candidates have stated they’re interested in running against Baldwin, none have launched a campaign yet. With Gallagher out of the race, possible contenders are former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke, Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany, real estate developer Eric Hovde, and businessman Scott Mayer. 

Arik Wolk, the Democratic Party of Wisconsin’s rapid response director, said in a statement that Gallagher “passed on running because he knew he couldn’t beat Tammy Baldwin.” 

Clarke, who rose to prominence as a frequent Fox News guest and Trump acolyte, tweeted a Democratic poll that showed him leading a theoretical GOP primary field after Gallagher made his announcement. 

“This poll has to give the RNC and the National Republican Senatorial Committee sleepless nights when somebody outside their establishment circle wipes away these other GOP potential primary candidates,” he tweeted. “None of them energizes or excites the base voter like I do.”

Democratic operatives believe the chaotic nature of GOP primaries gives them an advantage heading into next year’s election. 

“Even the most sought after GOP recruits know their party’s toxic agenda and their vicious primaries will lead their campaigns to defeat in the general election,” said DSCC spokesperson Amanda Sherman Baity in a statement reacting to Gallagher’s decision. 

Baldwin’s reelection bid in 2024 could be her toughest test yet. Baldwin won her first race in 2012 by over five percentage points, running just behind then-President Barack Obama, who carried Wisconsin by just under seven percentage points. She won reelection in 2018, a strong year for Democrats, by just under 11 percentage points.

Baldwin told The Messenger earlier this year that she doesn’t give a lot of focus to who will challenge her in 2024.

“There's lots of speculation about this person or that. I don't give it a lot of my focus,” Baldwin said. “I mean, I have a big day job as well as obviously preparing for a reelection race.”

She added: “What I do know as far as the folks that have been putting their toes in the water is some of them are election deniers, there are several who could self-fund a large portion of their campaigns, and they are people who support limiting a women's rights and freedoms with respect to abortion care. And I that is not that is not a winning formula.”

The importance of Wisconsin’s Senate race is only heightened by the fact that the state, which went for former President Donald Trump in 2016 and President Joe Biden in 2020, will be a top tier state in the 2024 presidential race.