Will Speaker Kevin McCarthy Survive Threat of Ouster? Allies Think So

Kevin McCarthy will soon become the second U.S. House speaker in history to face the congressional equivalent of a recall vote. 

After the California Republican relied on Democratic votes Saturday to prevent a government shutdown, lawmakers in both parties said they expect GOP hardliners to follow through on their threats by forcing a vote on a motion to vacate McCarthy from the speakership.

“The motion to vacate will come, and there will be a motion to table” it, Rep. Brian Fitzpartick, R-Pa., said. “And that question will be, are we going to punish or reward leaders who put two-party solutions on the floor?”

Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., McCarthy’s chief antagonist, confirmed on two Sunday political talk shows that he would file a motion to vacate McCarthy and force a vote this week.

Fitzpatrick and other McCarthy allies are confident he can survive such a vote, although it may take some effort — as most things have for him this year.

“I think Kevin McCarthy continues to be in a strong position,” Rep. Dusty Johnson, R-S.D., said. “Nothing is easy to accomplish in this Republican House. But Kevin McCarthy keeps pulling off wins.”

McCarthy allies are so confident about the speaker's support, they are welcoming a removal vote as a way to silence his critics.

"Just bring it on," Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla., said. "They didn't beat him last time when they tried this game. They won't beat him this time."

And more to the point, he said, the anti-McCarthy rebels "don't have an alternative available at all," nor is there any Republican "that wants to be drafted" to lead a bare majority, with warring factions unable to coalesce on substantial policy issues.

Gaetz has warned for weeks that he would file a motion to vacate the speaker if he relied on Democrats’ help to pass a government funding bill. 

McCarthy avoided that outcome in the final hours before the government was set to shut down. With hardliners declining to support any stopgap measure, the speaker decided to ask Democrats for help in passing a seven-week extension of current funding levels to keep the government open. 

After announcing the plan to his conference, McCarthy defiantly told reporters: "If I have to risk my job for standing up for the American public, I will do that."

'Go Ahead and Try'

McCarthy has repeatedly said he’s not afraid of a motion to vacate, even dropping an F bomb in a conference meeting where he dared his critics to file one. On Saturday he again welcomed the challenge and projected confidence that an effort to remove him would fail.

"If somebody wants to remove [me] because I want to be the adult in the room, go ahead and try," McCarthy said.

A few hours later Gaetz again warned that McCarthy’s leadership position was on the line after he decided to work with Democrats.

“I would say it's on some tenuous ground,” Gaetz told reporters.  

On Saturday Gaetz avoided putting a timetable on moving to oust McCarthy, saying he was focused on the longer-term spending battle and drumming up GOP support for the House to pass its remaining eight appropriations bills. There are 12 annual bills, and Republicans have passed four, with plans to consider the rest in October. 

“Right now I'm still trying to get support for our single-subject spending bills,” Gaetz said. “That’s really where my focus is.”

Less than 24 hours later, Gatez went on TV to announce he was moving forward with the motion to vacate this week — even as the House is scheduled to spend the next month focused on passing its eight remaining full-year spending bills.

“I do intend to file a motion to vacate against Speaker McCarthy this week. I think we need to rip off the band aid," Gaetz said on CNN's "State of the Union."

Gaetz raised suspicions Saturday that he was going to bring up the motion to vacate after the House passed the seven-week funding extension. He approached the podium and asked to be recognized to speak. 

But a motion to adjourn had already been made and Rep. Steve Womack, R-Ark., who was presiding over the chamber, ignored Gaetz and gaveled the House out of session until Monday.

Even some of Gaetz's allies did not expect him to move against McCarthy this quickly.

Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., who has said he is “interested” in replacing McCarthy, suggested Saturday that a motion is not imminent in part because there’s no obvious successor ready to take McCarthy’s place that could win enough support to be elected speaker.

“The problem with that is we don’t have a candidate,” Burchett said. “And also, that’s not what Gaetz is even focusing on. When I’m with him, he doesn’t bring it up. That’s the honest truth.”

But that didn’t stop some McCarthy critics from signaling they’re coming for the speaker’s gavel after his bipartisan maneuvering.

“It’s a pretty bad situation for him,” Rep. Dan Bishop said. Asked what that means, the North Carolina Republican said, “I think it speaks for itself.”

'Time Will Tell'

While disappointment spread across the right flank after Saturday’s vote, many conservatives held their fire. 

“Time will tell” whether McCarthy should still be speaker, Rep. Ralph Norman said. The South Carolina Republican did not rule out supporting a move to oust McCarthy but said he wants to see what the speaker does next as the long-term government funding fight continues.

“We’ll see what he does,” Norman said. “We’ve got our hands full.”

Other Republicans who opposed McCarthy’s stopgap funding bill came to his defense. 

“He’s got the toughest job in America,” Rep. Troy Nehls, R-Texas, said. “There’s no one else. It’s the toughest job in America. No one else is going to get to 218.”

Only Gaetz, Bishop and Burchett have said they would be inclined to support a motion to vacate. But others are raising the question of whether McCarthy should remain the job.

Several have expressed displeasure with McCarthy without backing themselves into a corner on how they come down on removal vote.

Rep. Bob Good said he has never seen McCarthy get angry except twice — first when he struggled to win support to be elected speaker and, more recently, when he dropped the F bomb over the motion to vacate threat. 

"Why doesn't he get angry about the border? Why doesn't he get angry about the spending? Why doesn't he get angry Joe Biden? I have never seen that," the Virginia Republican said. "Can he fight for something else, besides just trying to be speaker at all costs?"

But when asked if he thinks it's time to replace McCarthy as speaker with someone who will have those fights, Good said, "I'm focused on this [spending] fight for the moment. We'll have those discussions at another time."

Democrats' Help?

McCarthy’s allies acknowledged there are probably enough conservatives willing to vote to oust him as speaker that he may not survive on GOP support alone. 

They may need some help from Democrats, who need not cast direct votes in support of McCarthy but could vote “present” or abstain from voting to help lower the majority threshold he needs to reach. 

One Republican who requested anonymity to discuss private conversations told The Messenger that he’s talked to several centrist Democrats and believes there’s “a good number that would likely either wait, vote present, not be here or even come to our side.”

Gaetz admitted that Democrats are likely save McCarthy.

"The only way that McCarthy is speaker of the House at the end of this coming week is if Democrats bail them out," he said on CNN. "Now they probably will."

House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries declined to say Saturday whether his party would help McCarthy remain speaker.

“We haven’t had a discussion about any hypothetical motion to vacate, and we’ll cross that bridge when we get to it,” the New York Democrat told reporters.

Democrats are mostly following Jeffries’ lead in declining to engage in motion to vacate hypotheticals. But some have warned that if McCarthy or his allies do ask for their help, it will come with a price. 

“If people want to talk to me about it, I’m all ears. But I’m not a cheap date,” Rep. Jim McGovern, D-Mass., told The Messenger. “I’m not inclined to do anything to save Kevin McCarthy for nothing. I'm an expensive date.”