Who Will Replace Kevin McCarthy as House Speaker?

Can any Republican get 218 of their colleagues to elect them as the next House speaker?

That's the question circulating among House Republicans as they figure out who — if anyone — can replace ousted Kevin McCarthy as House speaker.

Republican names that have been floated vary from current elected leaders like House Majority Leader Steve Scalise of Louisiana, Majority Whip Tom Emmer of Minnesota and Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik of New York to respected conservatives like Jim Jordan of Ohio, Kevin Hern of Oklahoma and Byron Donalds of Florida.

"I think there are people that can get to 218," Rep. Brian Mast, R-Fla., told The Messenger, although he declined to name his preferred McCarthy successor. "This is a tough moment, but like anything that you go through that's tough, you come out stronger."

As of late Tuesday, no House Republicans had officially declared a bid, but they have time. The conference will hold a speaker candidate forum on Tuesday and their internal election on Wednesday.

It takes a simple majority vote of the 221-member House Republican Conference to be nominated as speaker but 218 votes of the full House to be officially elected to the post. That means a Republican speaker candidate cannot afford more than four defections from their own party, since Democrats would not be inclined to help elect a GOP speaker.

McCarthy struggled to win 218 votes in January through multiple rounds of voting until he made concessions to ultraconservatives that helped him secure the gavel on the 15th ballot.

Any Republican who runs for speaker now would likely have to make similar promises to win enough votes from rebel Republicans, including the eight who, along with all House Democrats, voted to oust McCarthy on Tuesday.

Rep. Matt Gaetz, who led the anti-McCarthy rebellion, has said earlier this week he would vote for Scalise to be speaker. But on Tuesday, after McCarthy announced he would step aside and not run again, the Florida Republican declined to name his preferred successor.

"I don't know who the candidates are," Gaetz told reporters.

Gaetz later weighed in on X in support of Jordan, saying, "My mentor Jim Jordan would be great!"

Spokespersons for Scalise, Emmer and Stefanik did not return requests for comment on their interest in running.

Hern has beeen approached by several members about running for speaker "and is taking it all very seriously," his spokesperson Miranda Dabney told The Messenger.

Later Hern appeared on Newsmax and confirmed he has "been asked by many people to consider running" and he's thinking about doing so. He cited his 35 years of business experience before running for Congress in 2018 to advance conservative ideas as something that helps him stand out from other potential candidates.

"I've never ran from any kind of fight," Hern said. "I'm one that takes accountability for anything and everything. All the decisions I've made, the buck stops with me. I've done that my entire career."

Jordan is having conversations with colleagues as he seriously considers a speaker bid, a source familiar with his thinking told The Messenger.

That Jordan is opening the door to a speakership bid is notable since the Ohio Republican has repeatedly said he is not interested in rising to that post.

Jordan, known for his attack dog style of questioning in committee hearings, has long aspired to serve in the role he now holds, chair of the powerful House Judiciary Committee. There, he is helping lead House Republicans' impeachment inquiry into President Joe. Biden — run jointly with the Oversight and Ways and Means Committees — and would be in charge of drafting any articles of impeachment that could stem from that probe.

Jordan, once a McCarthy foe, ran against against the California Republican for House minority leader after the 2018 elections swept Democrats back into power but lost resoundingly. Since then he and McCarthy have mended their once frosty relationship and forged a good working relationship.

All the while Jordan, the founding chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, has maintained good relationships with House conservatives. He received votes from some of the McCarthy defectors during the January speaker's election, but stuck beside McCarthy.

Donalds is one of the few members whose name has been floated as a speaker candidate to pass on the opportunity. He shook his head "no" when reporters asked if he was interested in running for speaker — or would accept the nomination.

"All I want to do is get our country on track. Period," the Florida Republican said of his immediate priority.

McCarthy shocked many of his colleagues when he announced in a GOP Conference meeting Tuesday evening — the shortest in weeks — that he would not put his name up for renomination.

Several thought he would go through another round of voting and try to wear down his detractors. After all, McCarthy has repeatedly told anyone who would listen, "I never give up."

After the conference meeting many Republicans, still shellshocked, declined to comment about who should succeed McCarthy.

House Freedom Caucus Chairman Scott Perry said it is not yet clear who all is running for speaker, but that he will support "the most conservative person that can get to 218."

Perry said he is not interested in running for speaker and has not yet heard from any Freedom Caucus members planning to but that could change now that McCarthy said he's not running.

The ambitious Republicans who had pledged to stand by McCarthy are now free to plunge into what Rep. Ralph Norman called an “open horse race.”

"The next speaker is going to have a monumental job to get everybody together on the same page," the South Carolina Republican said.

Norman floated alternatives to McCarthy that came up in the January speaker election, like Jordan and Donalds. Those were the two most frequently offered as alternatives in January by the 20 ultraconservatives who held out on supporting McCarthy but others names came up then too, like Hern.

Gaetz even voted for former President Donald Trump on a few of the January ballots. The speaker does not need to be a member of the House but always has been.

Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., one of the eight who voted against McCarthy, said all of the top current leaders— Scalise, Emmer and Stefanik — are names being floated.

Outside of the elected GOP leadership team, he said Hern's name has come up too. Hern chairs the Republican Study Committee, the largest bloc of House conservatives, so would likely have a strong base.

McCarthy did not immediately endorse a successor. He said he might weigh in on who should replace him — something that may not help win over his detractors — but he has not had those discussions yet.

Some Republicans warned the McCarthy replacement discussions should wait at least a night.

"Can we wait for the body to be cold?" Rep. Dusty Johnson said.

The South Dakota Republican noted the speaker's job isn't the most attractive position at the moment, saying he "wouldn't wish the job on anyone."

Nolan D. McCaskill contributed to this report.