Trump’s Federal Indictment in Miami Scores 8.6 on The Messenger Scale 

The Messenger Scale measures the magnitude of any singular news event, just as the Richter scale does for earthquakes. It assigns a simple 1-10 number based on input from our panel of nearly 90 "news seismologists" from the worlds of politics, policy, law, history, academia and media. They come from across the entire political spectrum in order to provide readers with a balanced response to major news events. 

(You can read more about The Messenger Scale by going here.)

Our expert panel gave the Trump's federal indictment in Miami an 8.6 out of 10.

What happened?

Former President Donald Trump has been federally indicted in the classified documents case. He's facing charges on 37 criminal counts, including conspiracy to obstruct justice, willful retention of national defense secrets in violation of the Espionage Act, and making false statements, according to the indictment unsealed and publicly released on Friday. Special Counsel Jack Smith brought the charges through a grand jury seated in the Southern District of Florida, and a trial is expected in the former president's adopted home state.

The context:

This is the first time in American history someone who has been president of the United States is facing federal criminal charges. It's also not the only criminal case Trump could be dealing with. He's already been indicted in New York state court on charges tied to paying hush money payments to an adult film actress to silence her before the 2016 presidential election. Smith is also investigating Trump for interference with the 2020 presidential election.

What are the experts saying?

Truly important. Will resonate for the next 18 months. The results will matter but the event itself is historic.

This is massively significant.  These are serious charges that go to Donald Trump compromising national security and putting his own interests ahead of Americans' safety.  This is a huge step toward real accountability that seemed inconceivable as recently as eighteen months ago.  It is crucially important as real consequences for a leader who has repeatedly undercut American democracy.

No person is above the law.

It should probably be a 9 or 10 based on historic significance, but I may be desensitized to Trump’s norm-busting.

For the first time in American history, the party in power is using the justice system to criminally prosecute the leader of the opposing political party. It’s what banana republics do.

And here we go...

For more reactions from our panel, check out our full legal/political/historical analysis story here.

What’s next? 

Trump is scheduled to appear at the federal courthouse in Miami on Tuesday, June 13, according to his post on Truth Social and a law enforcement official who confirmed the appearance to The Messenger.

To compare:

Our three previous highest readings to date for The Messenger Scale are:

Jan. 6, 2021 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol: 9.8

Trump’s indictment in New York: 7.2

Biden-McCarthy reach debt limit deal: 7.1

Our three lowest readings to date for The Messenger Scale are:

A CNN report on a flood at the Mar-a-Lago pool raising prosecutors suspicions : 3.9

Comer releases Biden family probe update without showing link to president: 3.8

Trump's lawyers request a meeting with Attorney General Merrick Garland: 3.6 

Peruse all of the Messenger Scale's ratings here.

The panel:

The following individuals have all agreed to receive and share responses to this question: On a scale of 1-10, how much do you think this event matters?

Respondents for this survey are in bold.

The esteemed ranks of 'news seismologists' include: Allan Lichtman, Allison Gill, Andrew McCarthy, Andrew Weissmann, Anthony Coley, Arun Chaudhary, Barbara Perry, Becky Bond, Brendan Buck, Carah Ong Whaley, Carol Browner, Carolyn Maloney, Charlie Cook, Chris Frates, Chris Shays, Christina Bellantoni, Christy Setzer, Dan Schnur, David S. Bernstein, David Cay Johnston, David Litt, David McIntosh, David Pepper, David Tamasi, David Weinstein, Edwin Chen, Eileen Claussen, Emily Pierce, Eric Wilson, Fred Upton, Gilda Daniels, Gordon Sondland, Gwenda Blair, Isaac Saul, Javed Ali, Jay Hakes, Jed Shugerman, Jeffrey Engel, Jeff Roe, Jeff Smith, Jenna Lowenstein, Jennifer Mercieca, Jesse Ferguson, Jim Messina, Joe Trippi, John Q. Barrett, John Dean, John Fleming, Julie Myers Wood, Kalee Kreider, Keith Appell, Ken Spain, Laura Smith, Lilliana Mason, Mark Zaid, Mary Bono, Matthew Rhodes-Purdy, Michael Czin, Michael Podhorzer, Michael Toner, Michael Vachon, Mindy Finn, Noah Bookbinder, Patricia Taft, Patrick Cotter, Patti Solis Doyle, Paul Rosenzweig, Philip Allen Lacovara, PJ Crowley, Randall Samborn, Reed Galen, Richard Tofel, Rick Boucher, Rick Wilson, Robert Luskin, Rodell Mollineau, Sam Martin, Sam Nunberg, Sarah Longwell, Sean Spicer, Shannon O’Brien, Stephen Moore, Steven Groves, Susan Del Percio, Susan Liebell, Ty Cobb, Veronica Vargas Stidvent and William Jeffress.