Trump Looms Over North Carolina GOP Gubernatorial Primary

Lawyer Bill Graham entered the Republican primary for North Carolina governor as a deep-pocketed alternative to Mark Robinson – the state’s lieutenant governor, who many Republicans believe is too extreme to win a general election next year.

But Graham may have the opposite problem. 

The longtime lawyer’s ability to win the Republican primary is uncertain, primarily because of his recent comments questioning Donald Trump’s legal defenses and Graham’s lack of political donations to Trump, who won North Carolina in 2016 and 2020. Instead, Graham has given thousands to other candidates, some of whom have angered the Republican base for not being close enough to the former president.

The stakes are high in North Carolina. Gov. Roy Cooper, the incumbent Democrat, is term-limited and his attorney general, Josh Stein, is the likely Democratic nominee. Robinson, who endorsed Trump earlier this year, is the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, despite a history of conspiratorial, controversial comments that have already been used against him and will only be amplified in what is likely to be the most expensive gubernatorial race in the nation next year.

This dynamic is a microcosm of the larger question facing the Republican Party: More conservative, Trump-aligned candidates can win Republican primaries but often struggle to win over a broader general election audience outside the reddest states.

Most of Graham’s comments about Trump have come on WBT, a Charlotte-area radio station, where he is referred to as a “longtime” legal analyst. In recent months, Graham has been asked extensively about Trump’s legal exposure in the four separate cases the former president faces. Graham’s commentary, while based on his lengthy legal career, is often at odds with what Republicans close to Trump have said to defend the former president.

Asked about Trump’s claims that the documents case against him is “election interference,” Graham said the documents Trump took to Mar-A-Lago “belongs to the government,” not “the person who held the office,” and added that he didn’t “think it’s a political thing.” Asked about the case against Trump stemming from his actions after the January 6 attack on the Capitol, Graham said he doesn’t think the case “is flimsy because it's very detailed.” And asked about Trump’s claims around the “weaponization of our justice system against a political candidate,” Graham said that “no man or woman is above the law.” 

“If you’re a politician and you’re running for office, does that mean you’re immune from prosecution? Or if you’re a former office holder, are you immune from prosecution? Do you get a free pass no matter what your conduct is? Do certain laws apply to you and others don’t,” Graham asked in the interview. “You know, we always live by, Beth, that no man or woman is above the law. And either that’s a true statement and a rule that we should live by or it isn’t. And so that’s where I come down.”

In response to questions about Special Counsel Jack Smith’s case against Trump for alleged mishandling of government documents, Graham questioned the idea that the documents Trump sought to keep belonged to the former president.

“That stuff all belongs to the government. That doesn’t belong to the person who held the office. So just break it down to if you were the mayor of the city of Charlotte, can you take stuff that belongs to the city of Charlotte and call it yours,” Graham asked. “The answer is no. It belongs to the people.”

The comments would almost certainly be a knock against Graham in a Republican primary, given North Carolina voted for Trump in both 2016 and 2020 and most polls have shown the former president with a stable lead over Biden in the current election cycle.

But the comments are not Graham’s only potential liability in the primary. The wealthy lawyer has a long history of political donations, including nearly $450,000 since Trump entered the political scene in 2015. But Graham hasn’t given any money to Trump or groups affiliated with him, according to the Federal Election Commission data, and has given thousands to some of Trump’s critics, like GOP Sen. Thom Tillis, who drew Republican ire for opposing some of the former president’s policies. Graham has also given to Democrats, including former North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley.

Trump has not endorsed Robinson yet, but the lieutenant governor has been a mainstay at Trump events. While speaking at the state GOP convention earlier this year, Trump said Robinson could “count on” his backing and called the gubernatorial frontrunner “one of the great stars of the party, one of the great stars in politics.” Robinson is also reportedly slated to hold a December fundraiser at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Club with the former president.

Graham, who finished third in the 2008 Republican primary for governor, would therefore have to break through Trump’s hold on the party to defeat Robinson. To do that, the wealthy lawyer pledged to spend at least $5 million of his fortune on the race and has already begun airing ads attacking Democratic control and questioning why Republicans keep losing to the party.

“The Democrat politicians have been running Raleigh for too long,” Graham says in one spot. “And the liberals like Roy Cooper and Josh Stein, they’re ruining our state. But, Republicans, we keep losing to them. Let’s change that.”

Breaking through Robinson, with Trump’s endorsement, could be difficult, however. A recent Meredith College poll found Graham at 5% support in a Republican primary, far behind Robinson’s 41% support.

But that is the primary, and there are widespread concerns among Republicans that Robinson would win over Republican voters and lose the general, in part, because of his more extreme positions and conspiratorial comments.

"Part of the reason Bill got into this race is because Mark Robinson is North Carolina's Hershel Walker, minus the Heisman trophy and successful professional football career,” said Alex Baltzegar, Graham’s campaign manager, referring to the 2022 Georgia Senate candidate who won the Republican primary but lost the general election. “Robinson is going to let President Trump and conservatives down by fumbling away the game and losing the governor’s race to Democrats next November.”

Baltzegar then compared Graham to Trump, saying like the former president, “Bill is a successful businessman and proven conservative, and he is the only candidate with a plan to win a conservative future for North Carolina.”