Trump Indictment Freezes Republican Primary

Former Vice President Mike Pence was ready for his big appearance on Sean Hannity’s Fox News show at 9 p.m. More than two hours before, his newly minted presidential campaign tweeted out his looming appearance.

Then the tweet disappeared. Pence never went on. His campaign said nothing.

What happened?

At 7:21 p.m., former President Donald Trump announced on his Truth Social account that he was to be indicted Tuesday in Miami in the federal government’s classified documents probe. The historic milestone – a former president has never been indicted in federal court – sucked up all the oxygen in the news cycle.

And whether it was Pence’s choice or Fox’s – spokespeople for both operations did not return requests for comment Thursday evening – his canceled appearance and subsequent silence spoke volumes about the outsized influence of Trump, the indisputable frontrunner in the race who chose Pence as his running mate in 2016 only to see Pence run against him in 2024.

To varying degrees, the 10 or so other Republicans in the race initially met the shocking though expected news with silence, tepid criticism of the Department of Justice or even praise of Trump. Perry Johnson, an independently wealthy candidate who has claimed he was the first to pledge he would pardon Trump, trolled DeSantis on Twitter and asked: “Would you pardon Donald Trump, if you were elected President?”

DeSantis did not reply. 

Only Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson criticized Trump harshly, calling on him to drop out later in the evening.

One major reason for the initial caution: The last time Trump was indicted, by a Democratic Manhattan prosecutor in March, his primary poll numbers started to rise and he began to crack 50 percent support in the crowded primary field.

“You know the golden rule of politics: it’s always the second politically motivated indictment that really kicks in the door,” Rep. Matt Gaetz, a Trump ally, said.

But whether Trump will climb higher in the primary polls, or even keep his lead, is anyone’s guess – especially because Trump is under federal investigation for the Jan. 6 riots and faces a state probe in Georgia over his alleged interference in the 2020 elections, said Brad Coker, a pollster with Mason Dixon Polling & Research. Polls consistently show that a majority of Americans believe Trump broke the law.

“The big question is if this all hits a tipping point and voters get exhausted and start to leave Trump because they just think he can’t win,” Coker said. “So they’re all thinking, ‘if he goes, I want his voters.’ They’re all hoping he dies – figuratively of course – and they get the inheritance.”

The first likely heir is running in second place in the polls: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. He waited until just before 10 p.m. to issue a statement on Twitter that bemoaned the “weaponization of federal law enforcement” and pledged to reform DOJ. He asked why the agency is “so zealous in pursuing Trump” while it never charged former Democratic Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in a 2016 records case, or the son of President Joe Biden, Hunter Biden, for his foreign business dealings (he is currently under federal investigation for unrelated tax and gun chasrges).

Vivek Ramaswamy, the former pharmaceutical CEO, made a forceful defense of Trump, alleging that Biden and the Justice Department were trying to attack Trump. Ramaswamy, whose campaign has refrained from criticizing Trump, was the first to rally to the former president after his New York City indictment.

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a former federal prosecutor who entered the race with a promise to take on Trump directly, suggested on Twitter that he wanted to see an indictment first before fully commenting.

“We don’t get our news from Trump’s Truth Social account. Let’s see what the facts are when any possible indictment is released,” Christie said. “As I have said before, no one is above the law, no matter how much they wish they were. We will have more to say when the facts are revealed.”

The least prepared to comment on the case was South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, who was about to go on-air at Fox News when news of the indictment broke Thursday evening. Scott refrained from criticizing Trump and instead insinuated that DOJ’s prosecution was problematic.

“What we've seen over the last several years is the weaponization of the Department of Justice against the former president,” Scott said. “You don't have to be a Republican to see injustice and want to fix it. You don't have to be a Democrat to see injustice and want to fix it. You just have to be an American and stand up for the right thing.”