Trump’s Not Guilty Plea in Miami Scores 6.1 on The Messenger Scale 

The Messenger Scale measures the magnitude of any singular news event, just as the Richter scale does for earthquakes. It assigns a simple 1-10 number based on input from our panel of nearly 90 "news seismologists" from the worlds of politics, policy, law, history, academia and media. They come from across the entire political spectrum in order to provide readers with a balanced response to major news events. 

(You can read more about The Messenger Scale by going here.)

Our expert panel gave Trump's arrest and 'not guilty' plea in Miami a 6.1 out of 10.

What happened?

Former President Donald Trump pleaded not guilty on Tuesday to 37 federal counts he faces related to his post-presidential handling of sensitive government documents. Trump is charged with conspiracy to obstruct justice, willful retention of national defense secrets in violation of the Espionage Act, and making false statements, according to the indictment unsealed last week detailing the charges brought by Special Counsel Jack Smith. "We most certainly enter a plea of not guilty," Trump defense attorney Todd Blanche told the court on Tuesday after Trump had surrendered to authorities.

The context:

Trump remains the frontrunner in polls for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. However, the Florida case – the first time a former president has been indicted on federal criminal charges – is just one of several legal challenges he faces. Trump was indicted earlier this year on state charges in New York tied to alleged "hush money" payments during his 2016 presidential campaign. He is also facing an ongoing federal investigation led by Smith into interference with the 2020 presidential election as well as charging decisions in Georgia stemming from a probe into 2020 electoral interference in the state.

What are the experts saying?

While there was a circus-like feeling behind everything that happened today, this was a routine hearing. It was historic because of who the defendant is.

Federal charges are a big deal, and this might actually affect his standing in the primary race.

There used to be a difference between what's legal and what's political. Today, that ends, at least temporarily. We should all be holding our breath.

The fact that a former president is facing federal charges raises the importance, even though the plea itself was not surprising.

"Of course it's extraordinary for a former president to be in court to respond to criminal charges, but the hearing and initial plea themselves were formalities. Not much that was surprising or consequential actually happened in the courtroom even if the whole thing was unprecedented. Worth noting though that a not guilty plea was in some ways unusual because these kinds of cases almost alway result in guilty pleas and certainly would have under the facts we know about with pretty much any other defendant. But it was clear from the outset that Donald Trump was never going to plead guilty."

What’s next? 

Trump is expected to continue his 2024 presidential campaign schedule after federal Magistrate Judge Jonathan Goodman on Tuesday ordered that the former president was not a flight risk and could travel internationally and domestically. The case is formally assigned to U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon, a Trump appointee, who will determine the schedule of proceedings going forward.

To compare:

Our three previous highest readings to date for The Messenger Scale are:

Jan. 6, 2021 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol: 9.8

Trump’s Federal Indictment in Miami: 8.6

Trump’s indictment in New York: 7.2

Our three lowest readings to date for The Messenger Scale are:

A CNN report on a flood at the Mar-a-Lago pool raising prosecutors suspicions : 3.9

Comer releases Biden family probe update without showing link to president: 3.8

Trump's lawyers request a meeting with Attorney General Merrick Garland: 3.6 

Peruse all of the Messenger Scale's ratings here.

The panel:

The following individuals have all agreed to receive and share responses to this question: On a scale of 1-10, how much do you think this event matters?

Respondents for this survey are in bold.

The esteemed ranks of 'news seismologists' include: Allan Lichtman, Allison Gill, Andrea Bitely, Andrew McCarthy, Andrew Weissmann, Anthony Coley, Arun Chaudhary, Barbara Perry, Becky Bond, Brendan Buck, Carah Ong Whaley, Carol Browner, Carolyn Maloney, Charlie Cook, Chris Frates, Chris Shays, Christina Bellantoni, Christy Setzer, Dan Schnur, David S. Bernstein, David Cay Johnston, David Litt, David McIntosh, David Pepper, David Tamasi, David Weinstein, Edwin Chen, Eileen Claussen, Emily Pierce, Eric Wilson, Fred Upton, Gilda Daniels, Gordon Sondland, Gwenda Blair, Isaac Saul, Javed Ali, Jay Hakes, Jed Shugerman, Jeffrey Engel, Jeff Roe, Jeff Smith, Jenna Lowenstein, Jennifer Mercieca, Jesse Ferguson, Jim Messina, Joe Trippi, John Q. Barrett, John Dean, John Fleming, Julie Myers Wood, Kalee Kreider, Keith Appell, Ken Spain, Laura Smith, Lilliana Mason, Mark Zaid, Mary Bono, Matthew Rhodes-Purdy, Michael Czin, Michael Podhorzer, Michael Toner, Michael Vachon, Mindy Finn, Noah Bookbinder, Patricia Taft, Patrick Cotter, Patti Solis Doyle, Paul Rosenzweig, Philip Allen Lacovara, PJ Crowley, Randall Samborn, Reed Galen, Richard Tofel, Rick Boucher, Rick Wilson, Robert Luskin, Rodell Mollineau, Sam Martin, Sam Nunberg, Sarah Longwell, Sean Spicer, Shannon O’Brien, Stephen Moore, Steven Groves, Susan Del Percio, Susan Liebell, Ty Cobb, Veronica Vargas Stidvent, and William Jeffress.