‘The Indictment Isn’t It:’ Why Trump Keeps His Primary Lead as Opponents Stall

When Donald Trump’s numbers spiked after his first indictment, his critics called it a “sugar high.” Nearly three months later — and following a second indictment — it looks a lot more like Trump has reached a new plateau. 

“The sugar could keep happening,” said Adam Geller, a Republican pollster who is not working for any presidential campaign. “We will at some point need to be able to discern what, if anything, is a sugar high. But am I seeing him losing ground [in the primary] due to the indictment(s)? No.”

Whether they’re national polls or primary surveys in the first two crucial early states of Iowa and New Hampshire, Trump leads the second-place Ron DeSantis by double digits, and the former president’s advantage has either held about the same or actually marginally increased since the first indictment. The 11 other Republicans running for president are still largely mired in single digits.

Now, that first indictment in April appears less like an ephemeral moment of rallying around the former president and more like a shift in the dynamic of the Republican primary. Trump’s lead remained steady through his second indictment last week, and, strikingly, coincided with a decrease in support for DeSantis in nationwide polls.

'Most likely, it's over'

When the second indictment – in the Department of Justice case related to Trump’s handling of classified documents – didn’t sink Trump, his Republican opponents were left either hoping some unpredictable roadblock would emerge once the primary gets fully under way in late summer — or throwing up their hands in frustration that he’ll secure the nomination a third time in a row.

Publicly, most of Trump’s leading rivals – including DeSantis – have refrained from criticizing him directly for his potential culpability in either case and instead are attacking the Justice Department.

About three-quarters of Republican primary voters see the federal case against Trump as politically motivated, according to a CBS/YouGov poll. Many of them feel he’s being unfairly prosecuted by a Democrat-controlled Justice Department, which refrained from indicting President Joe Biden or former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in unrelated classified records cases (although experts point to major differences between the cases).

So if Trump is leading by double digits and isn’t hurt by the indictments – and since two more investigations are swirling around him – what does that mean for  the primary contest?

“Most likely, it’s over,” said Republican pollster Wes Anderson, who is not working to advance any Republican presidential candidate. “Donald Trump has to beat himself. What does that look like? I have no friggin’ idea. But I don’t think the indictment is it.”

Like other pollsters and experts, Anderson cautions that June primary polling is not predictive of final results when the Iowa caucuses kick off in six months. But he said Trump’s pre-indictment polling — along with two focus groups of primary voters he conducted in Georgia and Ohio after Tuesday’s federal indictment — shows just how strong Trump is in the GOP.

In those focus groups, his supporters didn’t necessarily think Trump was innocent. But that didn’t seem to matter, Anderson told the Messenger. Instead, the charges evoked an anger among participants that was reminiscent of the feeling of the 2016 Republican electorate, when Trump won as an anti-establishment outsider.

“People were basically saying, ‘I’m sure it’s true. That’s not the issue. It’s a dual system of justice,’ Anderson said. “I was shocked by the intensity. It was, ‘screw them. We go to war now.’ You can’t convince them it is not politically motivated. They feel we’re going to lose America economically and culturally and they want the biggest brawler. This is a big middle finger fuck you to the system..”

The view in early states

Because of the complications of the federal case against Trump, experts say it’s unlikely to go to trial before the Nov. 5 general election. Trump has made his campaign and his legal defense essentially indistinguishable on the campaign trail, making the primary — and perhaps the general election — a referendum on his indictment.

“Some cracks were exposed but until a conviction, nothing (has) changed,” said Michael Cohen, a longtime pollster (not Trump’s former lawyer). 

He said Trump’s theatrics at a Miami restaurant after the second indictment were “effective” but also credited other candidates like former Vice President Mike Pence, who pushed a “wait-and-see” approach as “important” because it provides cover for other Republicans. He said Sen. Tim Scott’s tacking in his answers could set him up to be the winning alternative to Trump if Trump’s candidacy collapses. 

So far, Geller is the only pollster to have released a public survey in an early state, New Hampshire, that was taken amid the indictment news that can be compared to a pre-indictment survey of his. It showed the former president’s support ticking up 5 percentage points in a month, to 44 percent. His leading rival, DeSantis saw his numbers decrease 6 points to 12 percent.

In the nation’s first early state, Iowa, Geller’s last poll was completed before the indictment news broke and showed a far closer race, with Trump leading DeSantis 39-24 percent.

Considering DeSantis’s money, organization and intense focus on Iowa, a 15-point margin in the first early state is actually encouraging to his campaign, which had him trailing by a wider margin immediately after the Bragg indictment this spring. A DeSantis aide said the campaign’s internal data shows that Trump is falling in Iowa, but the numbers weren’t shared with The Messenger.

WPA Intelligence, a polling firm that works for the Never Back Down super PAC backing DeSantis, was more circumspect on Twitter, only pointing out last week that Trump got no “indictment bounce” – which is perhaps the first time that phenomenon has ever been conceived in a presidential election.

To pre-pardon or not to pre-pardon?

DeSantis was widely seen in Republican circles as the likeliest candidate to take out Trump, based on the governor’s record of achieving culture war wins and his pugnacious reputation.

But after news of Trump’s first indictment in New York by prosecutor Alvin Bragg, DeSantis showed relatively little interest in criticizing Trump and initially said nothing. DeSantis advisers pointed out he wasn’t an announced candidate at the time, but Trump-aligned social media figures howled that DeSantis should weigh in. Trump primary opponent Vivek Ramaswamy acted more like an ally by demanding all Republicans rally to the former president.

Days later, DeSantis weighed in by bashing Bragg for his ties to liberal financier George Soros, throwing shade at Trump for having sex with a porn star, and eventually even vowing he wouldn’t allow Trump to be extradited from Florida if need be – an announcement that flouts legal conventions.

“Only Donald Trump can turn his indictment into Ron DeSantis’s problem,” marveled a DeSantis fundraiser who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the mood in DeSantis’s orbit at the time.

One of DeSantis’s top financiers told The Messenger that Trump’s uptick at the time was a “sugar high,” a phrase other supporters echoed. But others in DeSantis’s circles weren’t so sure, and they discussed whether he should announce a proactive pardon of Trump, but the idea gained little traction. DeSantis, however, hinted at the idea in talks to some donors, according to sources familiar with some of his discussions, and suggested as much to conservative talk show hosts. 

On Tuesday, when Trump was arraigned, Ramaswamy reprised his role as Trump’s primary defender and called for the other candidates to pledge to pardon Trump. Trump demanded the same. DeSantis declined, and instead is floating a plan to target the Justice Department without criticizing Trump directly.

Former U.N. Ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley indicated she was inclined to pardon Trump. Former Vice President Mike Pence and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott ducked the question. Former New Jersey Gov. and one-time federal prosecutor Chris Christie also was unclear about pardoning Trump, but he has been one of the most vociferous Republican opponents to criticize him, accusing Trump of a type of “banana republic” politics after his son-in-law received a $2 billion investment from Saudi Arabia after he left the White House..

Blame the media

Behind the scenes, some Republicans are coping with Trump’s stubborn lead by imagining that it’s a result of Democratic scheming. Republicans have been buzzing that the federal criminal case amounts to Biden and the Democrats trying to cherry-pick their opponent, as the mountain of scandals continues to hurt Trump with the broader electorate

“Biden’s plan!” replied one Republican staffer from an opposing campaign when a reporter noted that this looks like Trump’s race to lose. 

Other Republicans have blamed the media for continuing to shower Trump with attention, giving him much desired “earned media” coverage and depriving opponents of attention much like in 2016. 

"It is not enough for the national political media to write for clicks. Collectively, they have a responsibility to probe each presidential candidate's character, their records, and their contradictions,” said Mike Murphy, a veteran Indiana Republican who campaigned for Jeb Bush in 2016 and has been supporting Pence’s bid this cycle. 

But others see a glimmer of hope that even as the indictment shores up Trump’s support at the moment, he could start fizzling. 

“Trump has nowhere to go but down,” said one veteran Republican strategist. 

The math problem

Republican pollster Whit Ayers, who surveyed for Marco Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign but is not aligned with any candidate, said he just has no idea how the primary will play out, noting it’s too early.

Ayers’s research, like other polls, generally shows the primary is divided into three tranches: about 25 percent are “Always Trump,” about 25 percent are “Not Trump” and about 50 percent are “Maybe Trump.”

If the indictment and legal problems against Trump remain a top issue in the primary – which appears likely -- a Republican in the crowded field probably needs to find most votes in the Maybe Trump tranche, Ayers said. That would mean the opponent would have to distinguish him or herself from the frontrunner without being overly critical and offending the sensibilities of the supermajority of Republicans who think the indictment is politically motivated.

“The message is probably something like: ‘Trump can’t advance the conservative cause because he keeps shooting himself in the foot. He won’t be able to carry out ball for us,’” Ayers said.

The inherent problem with that position is what it signifies, however: Trump is the center of attention and the center of gravity in the party because he’s the frontrunner – and more.

“Trump has redefined the Republican Party in his image,” Ayers said, “and everyone else gets defined in comparison to him.”