The Housing Cost Crisis Could Cost Biden Dearly In 2024

Persistently high housing costs could cost President Joe Biden in the 2024 election, especially among younger, liberal voters who have been edged out of the housing market or struggling with high rent.

Some progressive organizers say Biden and Democrats need to do more to address the issue or they are at risk of losing voter support from key voting blocs, including young voters and voters of color.

“This housing crisis is … a sleeper issue. I hope our president catches on to it. I think he has to signal to our folks like hey, no, I'm concerned about this domestic issue. We have to figure this out,”  said DaMareo Cooper, co-executive director at the Center for Popular Democracy.

The data on housing shows real misery these days. Only 21 percent of Americans think it's a good time to buy a house, according to Gallup, and 85 percent in a Fannie Mae survey think it's a bad time to buy. Younger voters feel like buying a house is as far out of their reach as ever.

With these economic headwinds, the president is in an uphill re-election battle, as he faces slumping approval ratings and is trailing former President Donald Trump in polling in a hypothetical match-up between the two. The president will need to hold on to support from young voters, as well as Black and Latino voters, by large margins if he expects to win in 2024.

Cooper noted that talking about affordable housing could help re-energize those blocs, which the president has seen a dip in support from.

“Thinking about next year's election, it’s really going to be about whether or not the president can signal to people who are struggling with home insecurity…that he understands that issue and that he's willing to act on it,” Cooper said.

Biden has emphasized a recovering economy as he’s toured the country promoting his economic agenda that he says has created more jobs and rising wages. While the president has noted that prices of food and gas are going down, housing costs have continued to increase.

Biden Administration's Housing Plan

The Biden administration is working to address the issue, including introducing a sweeping Housing Supply Action Plan in October to increase the amount of affordable housing across the country. But the plan includes some proposals that would require congressional approval, including the Low Income Housing Tax Credit, which provides credits to private investors developing affordable rental housing, and Neighborhood Homes Tax Credit.

Biden in his 2023 Budget also included investments in housing supply that would lead to the production or rehabilitation of another 500,000 homes.

National Economic Advisor Lael Brainard last week also pushed Congress to pass the Neighborhood Homes Investment Act, which is the proposal Biden included in his budget.

“We are using every lever at our disposal – legislative proposals, our administrative authorities, our convening power, and our bully pulpit – to do so,” Brainard said last week at the National Housing Conference. “Achieving the greatest improvement in supply will require Congress to act.”

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Thursday that "we still need to do a lot more work" on addressing housing concerns.

Housing Inflation Continues To Rise

Americans’ perception of the housing market is hitting at an all time low.

Only 21% of Americans say it is a good time to buy a house as of April 2023, according to Gallup, which is the worst that the survey has ever recorded. 

Housing costs rose 0.3 percent month-over-month and 6.7 percent over the last year, according to the October 2023 Consumer Price Index that was released last month. Home prices rose 4.5 percent year-over-year in September and 0.3 percent compared with the previous month, according to CoreLogic, which provides financial, property, and consumer information and analytics. 

In addition, Fannie Mae’s October Home Purchase Sentiment Index increased by 0.4 points in October to 64.9. A whopping 85% of respondents said they believe it’s a bad time to buy a home, and 40% said they believe home prices and mortgages will go up in the next year.

Renters are also feeling pressure on their pocketbook.

Americans are also spending roughly 30% of their income on rent, Moody’s Analytics found in research published in May. In 2021, which was at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic 20 million households that pay rent met the 30% income threshold and were “cost burdened,” according to a report from the Census Bureau published in March.

Communities of Color Feeling The Housing Pains

Young Americans, and communities of color, have also seen a growing concern of inflation and housing.

Housing rose to the top five concerns for Latino voters, according to a survey released by UnidosUS last month. More than half – 54% – of respondents said inflation and rising cost of living was their top concern. A quarter of respondents said that lack of affordable housing and high rents was their top concern.

GenForward, which surveys adults ages 18-36, found in a poll published last month that inflation was the top issue among respondents. 

Cathy Cohen, the David and Mary Winton Green Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago and founder of GenForward, said what was even more notable was that for the first time since the polls inception in 2016, all racial and ethnic groups labeled inflation as their number one issue.

“That everyone said inflation was a bit startling,” Cohen said, noting that typically racism is the top concern among African American respondents. She added that concerns about inflation is contributing to rising concerns over housing.

“This generation, more so than other generations, carry a higher load of debt, both student debt and mortgage debt,” Cohen said.

Some Democrats Are Centering Housing Issues

As voters’ concern over housing rises, some grassroots organizations and local Democrats are taking the issue into their own hands.

Jed Leano, a Democrat running for the state assembly in California, is running his campaign focused on expanding affordable housing and addressing homelessness. Leano said that you can’t run for office in his state without focusing on affordable housing.

“California is ground zero,” Leano said on talking about affordable housing, noting high levels of homelessness and high rent prices. “We're now at the critical mass tipping point where everyone is ready to hear it, independent of whether they themselves are housing stable or not.”

Grassroots organizations are also getting ready to push Democrats to address the issue.

Right To The City, a national alliance of over 90 local organizations fighting for housing justice, is preparing strategy for the 2024 election. Noemi Ramos, a board member of the Right to the City Alliance Action Fund, said some affiliates are organizing locally, but that there will be a discussion on how to address housing nationally.

"It's a roof over our heads," Ramos said. "It's where we live, where we work, where we play, where our families are raised, and it's an issue on everybody's mind. It's getting too expensive for people to remain in their homes."

The Center for Popular Democracy also launched a campaign called House Everyone, which focuses on expanding “green social housing stock” and funding for green social housing. The campaign also focuses on protecting tenants.

Cooper, who is based in Ohio, said the organization over the course of eight months hosted listening sessions through its 48 affiliates to hear from voters what their top issues are. The organization then chose the top eight issues from the sessions and held a caucus on which was the one that was of most concern. Housing came out on top.

As part of the campaign, organizers are going to start door knocking in 2024 to focus on housing. The organization is also meeting with lawmakers on this issue, including Rep. Ro Khanna, a progressive Democrat from California. 

“People in the community from the base, they are calling for this,” Cooper said. “Hopefully the administration catches on.”