Republicans Agree With House Speaker: ‘Nobody Wins In a Government Shutdown’

Most House GOP lawmakers are not itching for a government shutdown. In fact, many of them — including House Speaker Kevin McCarthy — desperately want to avoid one this fall.

"Nobody wins in a government shutdown," McCarthy told reporters Thursday after a closed-door Republican Conference meeting.

But what the California Republican told his members, according to several present, was more blunt: Republicans don't win in a government shutdown. They lose.

"It's just a stupid tactic," Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla., told The Messenger. "It will not work. It has not worked. They can't show us why it would work this time."

"We're going to get blamed no matter what," Idaho GOP Rep. Mike Simpson said. President Joe Biden "could stand on the Capitol steps and say, 'I want to shut down the government.' We would get blamed for it. That's just the reality."

McCarthy wants to avoid the blame game and a shutdown altogether.

"At the end of the day, I think the best thing to happen here is we're able to get our work done and we don't get into that mess," he said.

Republicans admit they've learned lessons from their troubled history of failing to balance their interest in fiscal responsibility with their obligation to fund government agencies and the various programs that support Americans.

"Watching the shutdowns before, how is that productive to get the objectives that you want to achieve for the American public?" McCarthy said.

The last was a 34-day shutdown that started in late 2018 and stretched into early 2019. Republicans, led then by President Donald Trump, were demanding money for a border wall. After breaking the record for the longest shutdown in U.S. history, they relented and opened the government temporarily without any wall funding. (The final funding bill for that fiscal year did include some but short of what Trump initially demanded.)

In the fall of 2013, tea party Republicans led a 16-day shutdown in an unsuccessful effort to defund then President Barack Obama's signature health care law.

'All Day Long With a Shutdown'

This time ultraconservatives in the House Freedom Caucus are demanding that any stopgap funding bill include a bevy of spending cuts and policy changes to strengthen border security, address the political “weaponization” of the Justice Department and end "woke policies” in the military.  

They say their goal is not to shut down the government, but they're prepared for that outcome if that's what it takes to implement the changes they're seeking.

"The spending cannot continue. We're set on that," Rep. Ralph Norman, R-S.C., told The Messenger. "It's not going to continue. We'll sit all day long with a shutdown."

He and other hardliners have explicitly and implicitly threatened to oust McCarthy if he doesn’t secure the party a win in the funding fight.

Some Freedom Caucus members have been negotiating with leaders of the Republican Main Street Caucus — who tout themselves as "thoughtful and pragmatic" conservatives — on a potential compromise that would pair at least one of their key demands, border security policies, with a short-term funding bill that would cut spending from current funding levels.

"Some progress has been made, but we're still working," Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla., told The Messenger, declining to reveal details given the fluid nature of the negotiations.

"The talks have been productive and we'll continue to work toward a deal," Main Street Caucus Chair Dusty Johnson and Vice Chair Stephanie Bice said in a joint statement.

Even if such a Republican compromise materializes and can pass the House, it's unlikely to be entertained in the Democratic-controlled Senate, which would point to a shutdown.

House Freedom Caucus members have an ideal goal: they send legislation to a Democratic-controlled Senate and blame Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and his party if they don't act on it.

"It would be a Biden-Schumer shutdown," Rep. Andrew Clyde, R-Ga., told The Messenger. "And that would be a BS shutdown."

The strategy is similar to one Republicans deployed on the debt limit last spring. They passed their own bill to lift the debt ceiling, loaded up with spending cuts. The Senate ignored that bill, but as the deadline approached, Speaker McCarthy cut a deal with the White House, irking far-right members.

It's unclear if that process could be replicated again. The Senate didn't bring up a debt limit bill because Schumer knew Republicans wouldn't help him pass a clean extension. But he may find some GOP support for a government funding extension, especially paired with Ukraine and disaster aid many Senate Republicans want to pass.

'Blame Us For Saving Them'

Many Republicans are frustrated that the right flank of their conference is considering forcing a shutdown again after their experiences in 2018 and 2013.

Cole, a senior appropriator, said the rabble rousers in the conference have no plan for getting out of a shutdown if it comes to that.

"They create the mess, somebody else can just come clean it up," he said. "They won't vote to bring us out of a shutdown. They'll just expect the rest of us to do that. And then they'll blame us for saving them. I've seen the game plenty of times before."

Another GOP appropriator, Florida Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, said Republicans who believe in not wasting taxpayer dollars should want to keep the government open it because shutdowns come with a cost.

The Congressional Budget Office estimated the 35-day shutdown that ended in 2019 cost the economy $11 billion.

"The big loser is the American people," Diaz-Balart told The Messenger. "Because it wastes money, because it gives all authority to the administration. And because ultimately we're going to have to reopen and you lose all leverage in those negotiations."

Even some fiscal conservatives think shutting down the government is not a good idea.

"It's just not a win," Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., told The Messenger. "Why do you want to make people hurt to get your agenda?"

'Win For a Change'

Freedom Caucus members were unmoved by McCarthy and others arguing that Republicans won't win anything from a shutdown.

"I think [McCarthy] ought to try to win for a change," Rep. Bob Good said, reiterating that he's not afraid of a shutdown.

"No one will flip a switch and shutdown the government," the Virginia Republican added. "But if the Senate doesn't pass our bill and the Senate doesn't do what we want to do, why are we shutting the government down?"

Good said "yes" he believes Republicans could come out of a shutdown with policy wins.

"There's always that chance," Rep. Andy Biggs, R-Ariz., a Freedom Caucus member who was walking alongside Good, agreed.

Biggs took issue with the meaning of the word "shutdown" given that the government still runs essential services in the case of a funding lapse.

"It's not a shutdown," he said. "You're causing some spending [to halt] at the federal level, but the vast majority of the federal dollars continue."

Rep. Chip Roy, who served as chief of staff to fellow Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz during the 2013 shutdown, suggested Republicans can at a minimum secure an electoral benefit, even if their efforts to change policy fail.

"In 2013, for example, there was significant positive reaction in the election the next year when we won 14 seats in the House and we won nine seats in the Senate and had the biggest Republican Party in history," he said. "Why? Because my former boss, Senator Cruz, went down and fought Obamacare. And the American people saw that fight."

Roy said of the battle he's helping lead with the Freedom Caucus: "They're seeing us fighting for them right now, when everybody else in town is fighting for themselves."

Even some Democrats agree that shutdowns have not hurt Republicans come election season.

"Conventional wisdom is they hurt Republicans. Show me. Show me any costs to Republicans in the House from shutdowns," Rep. Gerry Connolly, D-Va., told The Messenger.

He cited Republicans holding the House majority in 1996 after a 21-day shutdown. Republicans also picked up House seats in 2020 after the 35-day shutdown that Congress.

"So it's not clear to me and it's clearly not clear to right-wing Republicans that there is a political cost," Connolly said. "If there were costs, they'd probably not do it."