Poll: Trump Continues To Lead Biden (Exclusive)

Former President Donald Trump continues to lead President Joe Biden, according to the latest Messenger/Harris poll conducted by HarrisX. 

The poll, taken online October 30-November 1, found Trump led Biden, 45%-43%. Twelve percent said they were undecided. The margin of error was plus or minus 2.2 percentage points. 

Support for Biden and Trump largely broke down around partisan lines — 86% of Republicans backed Trump and 84% of Democrats backed Biden. Independents, however, were split. Thirty-eight percent backed Trump, 37% backed Biden and 25% were undecided. 

In a four-way race with independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West on the ballot, Trump earned 41% support, followed by Biden at 36%, Kennedy at 11%, and West at 2%. In this four-way scenario, independent voters break towards Kennedy, who earned 34% from independents compared to Biden’s 27% and Trump’s 25%. 

As The Messenger/Harris poll has reported in each poll since its inception, a majority of voters don’t want either Biden (66%) or Trump (57%) to run again. Forty-one percent of Democrats would prefer that Biden not seek a second term, and 26% of Republicans believe Trump shouldn’t run for president again, either. 

Biden’s approval rating remains mired in the low-40’s. In this poll, 41% said they approved of his job performance as president while 56% disapproved. 

Primary Scraps 

None of the challengers to Trump in the GOP presidential nomination, according to the Messenger/Harris poll data, seem to be a threat to upend Trump’s status as frontrunner. 

Trump leads the national GOP primary with 62% support, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 12%, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley at 7%, and venture capitalist Vivek Ramaswamy at 6%. 

Recently, former Vice President Mike Pence dropped out of the contest, citing the lack of a pathway to victory. He was at 4% in the last Messenger/Harris poll. Haley (+2 from the last survey) picked up the bulk of Pence backers. 

DeSantis remains the top second-choice candidate. Twenty-nine percent said they’d back him as their second pick, followed by Ramaswamy at 14% and Haley at 10%. 

 “As the Republican field consolidates, we see Nikki Haley showing momentum and picking up voters while DeSantis and Ramaswamy are flat,” said Dritan Nesho, chief pollster and CEO at HarrisX. 

Meanwhile, Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips recently jumped into the Democratic Party seeking to oust Biden. Nesho told The Messenger that Phillips is “not a viable threat to Biden at this stage.” 

Biden leads the Democratic primary field with 73% support, while 10% said they were unsure and 9% said they’d back “someone else.” Author Marianne Williamson was at 5% and Phillips was at 4%.