Pennsylvania Special Election Will Decide Control of State House

The race to represent a Pittsburgh-based seat will decide control of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives next week, a win that could give Democrats considerably more latitude in the key swing state.

Democrats narrowly won control of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives in the 2022 midterms, buoyed by a dominant gubernatorial campaign by Gov. Josh Shapiro. But a series of special elections over the last year – some caused by candidates winning higher level positions and the death of a state representative – have tested their hold on the body, leading to the current 101-101 partisan split. While Democrats have maintained control by a thread, a win on Tuesday would help Shapiro implement his plans for the state.

This seat was opened when Democrat Sara Innamorato opted to resign to run for Allegheny County executive.

Democrats are hoping Lindsay Powell, a director at a local nonprofit focused on economic development, will break that tie on Tuesday. The win would not be surprising: Democrats have long controlled the Pittsburgh area seat, Shapiro overwhelmingly carried the district in 2022 and Allegany County has been a Democratic stronghold in the state for years. 

"Generally, there is not too much concern that we will lose this seat, but our team is not going to take anything for granted. We are doing the work," said Carver Murphy, Powell's campaign manager. "Our race has been very focused on the community our district is serving and our voters."

Powell, whose resume includes working for President Barack Obama, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, and Senator Chuck Schumer, is running against Erin Connolly Autenreith, chairperson of the Shaler Township Republican Committee. The Democrat has enjoyed a significant fundraising advantage in the race and support from a series of top party officials and organizations, including the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee.

“Pennsylvania has been one of our target states for some time now,” said Gabrielle Chew, a spokesperson for the committee. “The district favors us so that, combined with us having a really good ground game, allows the DLCC to feel a lot more comfortable about our position going into this election.”

Republicans have publicly said that they are happy with how Connolly Autenreith has run her race, but there is an acknowledgment that it would take a considerable upset for a Republican to win this North Pittsburgh seat.

Connolly Autenreith has also been dogged by the fact that she attended former President Donald Trump’s speech in Washington, D.C. on Jan. 6, 2021, but said she did not learn about the violence at the Capitol until she returned home to Pittsburgh. A Facebook post by Connolly Autenreith also confirmed she was in Washington on Jan. 6.

That is why groups like the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee touted Powell as someone “capable of beating back extremism and fighting for democracy” in Pennsylvania.

This is not the first time Connolly Autenreith has run for office. She launched a long-shot bid against Democratic Rep. William Russell Robinson in 2000, vying to represent a portion of Pittsburgh in the House. She lost that race by 78 percentage points.

Beyond control of the state house, the race carries significance as yet another chance for the party to overperform in a special election. Since the November midterms, the party has succeeded in a string of special elections, giving some Democrats confidence headed into a presidential election year.

Many attribute this success to the way abortion and the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade have invigorated their base.

Powell has been endorsed by EMILYs List, the top Democratic organization aimed at electing pro-choice women.

Powell has been an outspoken advocate for reproductive freedom and has spent her career trying to make her community a more just and accessible place for those who have been overlooked,” said Laphonza Butler, EMILY’s List President.

A win by Powell on Tuesday would largely minimize the impact on Democratic control of the legislative chamber, which is scheduled to return to session later in September.