Montana Sen. Jon Tester Handicaps the 2024 Senate Map

Montana Sen. Jon Tester played the role of political handicapper for an audience at a Hollywood fundraiser earlier this month.

The fundraiser, held in Los Angeles on Nov. 4, was first reported by Fox News. But a little-viewed Instagram post by one of the hosts of the event, entertainment executive Ben Press, revealed how one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents views the 2024 map, which is widely seen as difficult for Democrats as they look to hold onto their two-seat majority in the upper chamber. 

Tester thanked the crowd “for being a part of the team,” noting that a lot of attendees have donated to other Senate Democrats in the past. 

“I know you’ve helped them,” Tester said. “Folks like [Ohio Senator] Sherrod Brown and [Pennsylvania Senator] Bobby Casey. And there’s a few others you need to pay attention to. We’ve got Jacky Rosen in Nevada. Got to watch her.”

“Bob Casey was supposed to have an easy race,” Tester continued. “I’ve watched that race very closely, because it may not be near as easy as we were hoping.” Casey is likely to face off against former Bridgewater Associates CEO David McCormick, who was heavily recruited by Senate Republicans. Republicans see Pennsylvania as one of four key races to take back partisan control of the chamber. 

Tester continued to tick down the list of key races. “[Wisconsin Senator] Tammy Baldwin’s in good shape right now, but you never know,” he said. “She’s a great, serious legislator and does a great job.”  

He then brought up Texas, an offensive target for Democrats. 

“I’ll throw one out that Peters doesn’t throw out all the time, he’s the head of the DSCC,” Tester said, referring to Chairman Gary Peters, Michigan’s junior senator. “And that’s Colin Allred in Texas. At some point in time, Texas is going to flip.” 

The comments came over a week after the DSCC announced additional investments into Texas, including communications and research staff. Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is up for reelection and he won narrowly in 2018 against former Rep. Beto O’Rourke. Peters does not make endorsements in Democratic primaries, a stance he also took in the 2022 election cycle.

Tester’s view of the 2024 Senate map is similar to how Democratic and GOP strategists see the key races that will determine control of the upper chamber. With Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin deciding not to seek reelection, West Virginia has shifted into the Republican column. Montana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania will be the three key races along with Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin. Democrats are defending all of those seats, and will look to pick up seats in Florida and Texas, although those are considered uphill battles. 

Tester is no stranger to tight races — he won his 2018 reelection campaign by a little over three percentage points. He was previously the chair of the DSCC during the 2016 election cycle, when his party picked up two seats in New Hampshire and Illinois.