Manchin Senate Retirement Stokes Presidential Speculation

Joe Manchin may be retiring from the Senate, but his political ambitions are far from finished or clear.

The West Virginia Democrat announced Thursday that he would not seek reelection to the Senate next year, instead traveling the country to “see if there is an interest in creating a movement to mobilize the middle.”

The announcement was consequential on several levels, but possibly none more than what this could mean for the senator’s flirtations with running for president, possibly on a third-party ticket backed by No Labels, the outside political organization aiming to recruit a bipartisan presidential ticket to challenge rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

“After months of deliberation and long conversations with my family… I have made one of the toughest decisions of my life and decided I will not be running for re-election to the United States Senate,” Manchin said in a taped video. “But what I will be doing is traveling the country and speaking out to see if there is an interest in creating a movement to mobilize the middle and bring Americans together.”

After making that announcement, however, Manchin continues with a notably national message, one that would likely mimic the tone and tenor of a presidential campaign Manchin would like to run. 

The senator decries a growth of “extreme” politics in Washington that “is paralyzing Congress” and “worsening” the problems facing the nation. “The majority of Americans is just plain worn out,” he said. “Our economy is not working for many Americans.”

Near the end of the video, long after Manchin made his announcement, the senator says people “need to take back America.”

“I know our country isn’t as divided as Washington wants us to believe. We share common values of family, freedom, democracy, dignity, and a belief that together we can overcome any challenge,” he says.

Manchin has long been mentioned as possibly the top elected official who could mount a presidential campaign on a No Labels ticket. The outside political group, which was founded in 2010, has recently been focused on gaining 2024 ballot access in as many states as possible with the aim of backing a third-party “unity ticket” to compete in the presidential election. 

On Wednesday, the group announced they had clinched ballot access in 12 states and are on pace to get access in every state.

Democrats across the political spectrum have lambasted the effort, arguing it will do nothing more than undermine Biden’s reelection bid and Trump, should he win the Republican Party’s nomination. And while Democratic operatives have also taken aim at No Labels for refusing to disclose their donors, they have also admitted that they are worried about the implications, especially with Manchin is on the ticket.

“There is one obvious way that Trump could win,” wrote Dan Pfeiffer, a former top adviser to then-President Barack Obama. “It keeps me up at night because it’s how he won in 2016. It’s staring us all in the face — a third-party candidate. And specifically, a third-party candidate named Joe Manchin.”

In a call with reporters on Wednesday, Ryan Clancy, the group's chief strategist, said it planned to announce a ticket in March or April of 2024 because they first want to see who each major party nominates.

“If conditions are as they are today, and it is Trump and Biden and both of them are as politically weakened as they appear to be, we expect we will be putting up a ticket early next year,” he said.

In response to Manchin’s announcement, a spokesperson for No Labels said Manchin was “a tireless voice for America’s commonsense majority and a longtime ally of the No Labels movement” and that the group commended the West Virginia Democrat for “stepping up to lead a long overdue national conversation about solving America’s biggest challenges.”

“Regarding our No Labels Unity presidential ticket, we are gathering input from our members across the country to understand the kind of leaders they would like to see in the White House,” said the spokesperson. “As we have said from the beginning, we will make a decision by early 2024 about whether we will nominate a Unity presidential ticket and who will be on it.”

“The timeline is still March or April of next year. And that was always by design because one of the things… this is something you only do if you really think there is a path. And when you will really know if there is a path has to do, at least somewhat, with what the major parties end up doing with their nominees.”

“If conditions are as they are today, and it is Trump and Biden and both of them are as politically weakened as they appear to be, we expect we will be putting up a ticket early next year.”

“We are still working on developing the process, which we hope to be out with a bit later this year and we haven’t started extensive with any candidates.”

One hitch in the No Labels plan could be that the group has publicly said – including on its call with reporters – that they believe their best path to victory would be with a Republican atop the ticket, meaning if Manchin were to run, he would likely slot into the vice presidential role, not something people close to him believe he would want.