Hunter Biden’s Plea Deal Scores 5.8 on The Messenger Scale

The Messenger Scale measures the magnitude of any singular news event, like the Richter scale does for earthquakes. It assigns a simple 1-10 number based on input from our panel of 90 "news seismologists" from the worlds of politics, policy, law, history, academia and media. They come from across the entire political spectrum in order to provide readers with a balanced response to major news events. 

(You can read more about The Messenger Scale by going here.)

Our expert panel gave Hunter Biden's plea deal with the Justice Department a 5.8 out of 10.

What happened?

The president's son reached a plea deal with Justice Department investigators, according to new court records, in which Hunter Biden will plead guilty to two tax-related misdemeanors. Biden also struck a deal that will allow him to avoid a felony charge for lying on a gun purchase form.

The context:

The plea deal became public just a week after former President Donald Trump was arraigned in federal court in Miami over his alleged mishandling of classified documents. The two investigations are very different. Still, Republicans see the agreement as an example of bias at the Justice Department allowing the president's son to avoid any jail time and illustrates how the two parties are being treated differently by federal law enforcement.

What are the experts saying?

To me, as an experienced federal criminal law practitioner, the resolution of the case looks not inappropriate if perhaps a bit much ado about very little. The reality is that for a non-public figure it is possible; if not likely; that the entire matter might have been resolved without criminal charges.

The Hunter Biden plea deal further illustrates the perception of unequal treatment under the law for America’s political families, with the Clintons and Bidens getting preferential treatment while the book gets thrown at Trump.

This is a contest over who can frame law, justice, and honesty in the most compelling manner. Journalists have repeatedly said that Hillary Clinton, e.g., may have violated laws governing documents but the issue is not the mishandling as much as allegedly lying about it.

Kind of takes the wind out of Trump’s sails, no? Not to mention all the other idiots convinced that DOJ would never follow this up.

Republicans get validation that there IS some there-there in the case against Hunter Biden, but the charges themselves are misdemeanors. As Trump himself said, these are "speeding tickets," not, say, a violation of the Espionage Act.

For more reactions from our panel, read our additional legal and political analysis here.

What's next?

This may not be the end of the Hunter Biden investigations. Congress is still probing the Biden family's business dealings. And U.S. Attorney David C. Weiss, who leads the Justice Department's probe into Biden, said the investigation he’s overseeing remains “ongoing.” 

To compare:

Our three previous highest readings to date for The Messenger Scale are:

Jan. 6, 2021 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol: 9.8

Trump's indictment in Miami: 8.6

Trump’s indictment in New York: 7.2

Our three lowest readings to date for The Messenger Scale are:

A CNN report on a flood at the Mar-a-Lago pool raising prosecutors suspicions : 3.9

Comer releases Biden family probe update without showing link to president: 3.8

Trump's lawyers request a meeting with Attorney General Merrick Garland: 3.6 

Peruse all of the Messenger Scale's ratings here.

The panel:

The following individuals have all agreed to receive and share responses to this question: On a scale of 1-10, how much do you think this event matters?

Respondents for this survey are in bold.

The esteemed ranks of 'news seismologists' include: Allan Lichtman, Allison Gill, Andrew McCarthy, Andrew Weissmann, Anthony Coley, Arun Chaudhary, Barbara Perry, Becky Bond, Brendan Buck, Carah Ong Whaley, Carol Browner, Carolyn Maloney, Charlie Cook, Chris Frates, Chris Shays, Christina Bellantoni, Christy Setzer, Dan Schnur, David S. Bernstein, David Cay Johnston, David Litt, David McIntosh, David Pepper, David Tamasi, David Weinstein, Edwin Chen, Eileen Claussen, Emily Pierce, Eric Wilson, Fred Upton, Gilda Daniels, Gordon Sondland, Gwenda Blair, Isaac Saul, Javed Ali, Jay Hakes, Jed Shugerman, Jeffrey Engel, Jeff Roe, Jeff Smith, Jenna Lowenstein, Jennifer Mercieca, Jesse Ferguson, Jim Messina, Joe Trippi, John Q. Barrett, John Dean, John Fleming, Julie Myers Wood, Kalee Kreider, Keith Appell, Ken Spain, Laura Smith, Lilliana Mason, Mark Zaid, Mary Bono, Matthew Rhodes-Purdy, Michael Czin, Michael Podhorzer, Michael Toner, Michael Vachon, Mindy Finn, Noah Bookbinder, Patricia Taft, Patrick Cotter, Patti Solis Doyle, Paul Rosenzweig, Philip Allen Lacovara, PJ Crowley, Randall Samborn, Reed Galen, Richard Tofel, Rick Boucher, Rick Wilson, Robert Luskin, Rodell Mollineau, Sam Martin, Sam Nunberg, Sarah Longwell, Sean Spicer, Shannon O’Brien, Stephen Moore, Steven Groves, Susan Del Percio, Susan Liebell, Ty Cobb, Veronica Vargas Stidvent and William Jeffress.