U.S. Attorney’s Mention of ‘Ongoing’ Biden Investigation Scores 4.3 on The Messenger Scale 

The Messenger Scale measures the magnitude of any singular news event, just as the Richter scale does for earthquakes. It assigns a simple 1-10 number based on input from our panel of nearly 90 "news seismologists" from the worlds of politics, policy, law, history, academia and media. They come from across the entire political spectrum in order to provide readers with a balanced response to major news events. 

(You can read more about The Messenger Scale by going here.)

Our expert panel said the U.S. attorney for Delaware's mention of an "ongoing investigation" into President Biden and his son scores a 4.3 out of 10.

What happened?

David Weiss, the U.S. Attorney for Delaware, said in a letter Monday that there is an “ongoing investigation” on matters relating to an FBI document that contains allegations of a Ukrainian bribery scheme involving Hunter Biden and his father, President Joe Biden.

Weiss made the disclosure in response to an inquiry from Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., who had requested answers from Weiss about alleged phone conversations between the Bidens and an official at a Ukrainian gas company, and whether recordings of the alleged phone talks exist. 

“Your questions about allegations contained in an FBI FD-1023 Form relate to an ongoing investigation. As such, I cannot comment on them at this time," Weiss wrote to Graham. An FD-1023 form is a document used by FBI special agents to record unverified raw information from informants. 

The context:

Weiss's letter marks the first time that the federal prosecutor has disclosed he is investigating the FBI document, which is believed to contain explosive but uncorroborated allegations involving bribery payments to Biden and son made by a confidential human informant.

Biden lawyers and Democrats have claimed that a federal investigation into alleged Ukrainian bribery payments to the Bidens has long been over. House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer, R-Ky., tweeted on Tuesday that recent disclosures contradict those claims.

Hunter Biden has agreed to plead guilty to two counts of willful failure to pay federal income tax while avoiding prosecution for a gun offense if he meets certain pre-trial conditions, according to documents filed last month in the U.S. District Court for the District of Delaware. In a statement at the time the deal was announced last month, Weiss said “the investigation is ongoing” without elaborating further.

What are the experts saying?

The response is so ambiguous that it is impossible to evaluate its significance.  It may be ominous, but all other indications are that there is '“'no there, there.'  It may be just a way to keep Sen. Graham at bay.

The ongoing nature of the investigation into Hunter Biden means that it remains a potential political liability to the President. The fact that Hunter Biden’s attorney is apparently under the false impression that the investigation is '“'resolved' makes the story even more interesting.

That is a stock answer to any inquiry to any US Attorney on any investigation that has not yet formally concluded. Given the show hearings being staged by the Republicans in the House, it is also the only intelligent thing to say. It means very little.

A big deal in conservative media, almost surely a nothing burger when it comes to the law.

Indicates the GOP will be able to keep this issue alive but still not of much importance unless and until there is evidence of [Joe Biden’s] involvement. 

Given all that has happened in the US, this information seems rather tame — but if we were not in the world of an American President trying to overturn elections or allegations that an American President lied about holding top secret documents — this would be an important story so I think it warrants some attention.

It doesn’t say much about the chance of anyone ever getting charged for anything. If you’re the investigator, you’ll err on the side of keeping the investigation open for two reasons. First, you don’t want to facilitate the politicians’ claims that you’re giving the President and his son a pass. Second, you know that the minute you close the investigation, you’ll lose your grounds for declining the politicians’ demands for information.

What’s next? 

FBI Director Christopher Wray is scheduled to testify Wednesday before the House Judiciary Committee. Wray is expected to face questions from House Republicans about his agency's role in the federal investigations concerning Hunter Biden.

Separately, a hearing is scheduled for July 26 in a Delaware federal court on Hunter Biden's agreement to admit to the federal tax charges.

To compare:

We also asked The Messenger Scale panel on Tuesday to assess two other recent legal developments.

They scored the request from lawyers for former president Donald Trump to postpone his trial in the Mar-a-Lago documents case a 4.0 out of 10.

They scored the selection of a new grand jury in Georgia that is expected to decide on potential indictments for criminal interference in the 2020 presidential election a 4.2 out of 10.

Our three previous highest readings to date for The Messenger Scale are:

Jan. 6, 2021 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol: 9.8

Trump’s Federal Indictment in Miami: 8.6

Supreme Court rejects affirmative action on college campuses: 7.6

Our three lowest readings to date for The Messenger Scale are:

A CNN report on a flood at the Mar-a-Lago pool raising prosecutors suspicions : 3.9

Comer releases Biden family probe update without showing link to president: 3.8

Trump's lawyers request a meeting with Attorney General Merrick Garland: 3.6 

Peruse all of the Messenger Scale's ratings here.

The panel:

The following individuals have all agreed to receive and share responses to this question: On a scale of 1-10, how much do you think this event matters?

Respondents for this survey are in bold.

The esteemed ranks of 'news seismologists' include: Allan Lichtman, Allison Gill, Andrea Bitely, Andrew McCarthy, Andrew Weissmann, Anthony Coley, Arun Chaudhary, Barbara Perry, Becky Bond, Brendan Buck, Carah Ong Whaley, Carol Browner, Carolyn Maloney, Charlie Cook, Chris Frates, Chris Shays, Christina Bellantoni, Christy Setzer, Dan Schnur, David S. Bernstein, David Cay Johnston, David Litt, David McIntosh, David Pepper, David Tamasi, David Weinstein, Edwin Chen, Eileen Claussen, Emily Pierce, Eric Wilson, Fred Upton, Gilda Daniels, Gordon Sondland, Gwenda Blair, Isaac Saul, Javed Ali, Jay Hakes, Jed Shugerman, Jeffrey Engel, Jeff Roe, Jeff Smith, Jenna Lowenstein, Jennifer Mercieca, Jesse Ferguson, Jim Messina, Joe Trippi, John Q. Barrett, John Dean, John Fleming, Julie Myers Wood, Kalee Kreider, Keith Appell, Ken Spain, Laura Smith, Lilliana Mason, Mark Zaid, Mary Bono, Matthew Rhodes-Purdy, Michael Czin, Michael Podhorzer, Michael Toner, Michael Vachon, Mindy Finn, Noah Bookbinder, Patricia Taft, Patrick Cotter, Patti Solis Doyle, Paul Rosenzweig, Philip Allen Lacovara, PJ Crowley, Randall Samborn, Reed Galen, Richard Tofel, Rick Boucher, Rick Wilson, Robert Luskin, Rodell Mollineau, Sam Martin, Sam Nunberg, Sarah Longwell, Sean Spicer, Shannon O’Brien, Stephen Moore, Steven Groves, Susan Del Percio, Susan Liebell, Ty Cobb, Veronica Vargas Stidvent and William Jeffress.