Government Shutdown Scenarios All Beg: Will House Speaker McCarthy Survive?

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy faces a no-win choice: allow the government to shut down next Sunday or avert that outcome by working with Democrats.

But reaching across the aisle in such polarized times would invite more dysfunction, all but ensuring McCarthy's right flank would try to oust him.

There are several scenarios for how this deadline week for funding the government may play out, but seemingly all of them either lead to a shutdown — or a vote to remove McCarthy as speaker. 

The California Republican who bargained his way to wielding the ultimate gavel in the House is at a crossroads and no one can solidly predict which route he’ll choose. He has both advised against a government shutdown while simultaneously declining to work with Democrats to avoid one.

“It's pretty difficult to think that you're going to win in a shutdown. I've been through those a couple of times,” McCarthy told reporters Friday, noting that most Republicans agree a shutdown is not helpful.

But when asked if he was willing to work with Democrats to keep the government open, McCarthy said he was still trying to find a solution among House Republicans. The GOP has yet to unify around evolving versions of a short-term funding extension that would cut spending and implement border security policies. 

“I believe we have a majority here and we can work together to solve this,” McCarthy said. “It might take us a little longer. But this is important.”

A small but mighty contingent of Republicans remain opposed to any version of a stopgap funding bill, leaving McCarthy short of the votes he needs to pass something without support from Democrats. 

Absent a major reversal in which enough of those Republicans move off their hardline opposition, McCarthy has no options to keep the government open that do not involve working with Democrats. 

McCarthy has so far avoided that because it would put his leadership position on the line. Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., has said he would force a vote on a motion to vacate McCarthy from the speakership if he turns to Democrats to keep the government funded. 

Gaetz, one of the Republicans opposed to passing any form of a catchall spending bill, is warning McCarthy against cobbling a bipartisan majority to override conservatives demands.

“If it's a coalition that involves using Democrats to roll conservatives to advance Joe Biden's spending priorities, then that will likely mark the beginning of the series of votes on a motion to vacate,” Gaetz told reporters last week. 

Since a combination of partisanship, House GOP infighting and Senate procedural stumbles prevented Congress from passing the 12 annual spending bills to fund the government by Sept. 30, a short-term fix is the only solution to avert a shutdown. Here are a few scenarios on how this week could play out: 

Senate Acts, House Does Not

The Senate is hoping to move its own stopgap funding bill, known as a continuing resolution, or CR for short. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., took the first procedural step necessary to begin that process on Thursday before the Senate adjourned until Tuesday. 

He and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell "have a great deal of agreement on many parts of this,” Schumer said in a CNN interview. “It’s never easy to get a big bill, a CR bill done. But I am very, very optimistic that McConnell and I can find a way and get a large number of votes, both Democratic and Republican in the Senate.”

While Senate leaders are still negotiating details, their bill is expected to include Ukraine and disaster aid, which majorities of both parties support. 

The Senate may also opt for a longer funding extension than the House. 

Senate Appropriations ranking member Susan Collins told reporters last week her preference is a stopgap that lasts until early December. “That would give us sufficient time to move the rest of the bills and to go to conference,” the Maine Republican said, referring to formal conference negotiations with the House where the two sides resolve differences before sending one final bill to the White House for signature. 

The Senate’s rules necessitate more time to pass legislation than the House. The upper chamber has not yet passed any appropriations bills because of procedural blockades from a few Republicans. 

If the Senate approves a short-term funding extension and sends it to the House, McCarthy may decide to ignore it and allow the government to shutdown rather than rely on Democratic votes to pass it. 

But the speaker so far has declined to say how he would act. “You just asked me something that hasn’t happened,” he told reporters Friday. “If that happens, call me.”

McCarthy Caves to Senate 

If the Senate does pass a temporary funding bill, it’s likely to bump up right against the Sept. 30 funding deadline. 

The Senate’s cumbersome rules and procedures ensure nothing moves fast without unanimous consent, which allows any single senator to hold things up. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., has said he will not expedite passage of any government funding extension that includes funding for Ukraine. 

Schumer and McConnell have both said they prefer to include Ukraine aid in a stopgap bill. If they follow through and Paul doesn’t consent to speeding up the process, it will take the Senate until the end of the week to clear all the procedural hurdles needed to pass the bill.

So if the Senate sends the House a short-term funding extension at the last minute and House Republicans are still in disagreement, McCarthy may decide to take up the Senate bill rather than allow a shutdown. But the speaker would need Democratic votes to get it over the finish line.

Schumer is hoping McCarthy will pursue that bipartisan approach.

“He can’t let this small group of hard-right people who are almost fanatics who want the government to shut down despite the harm it does to the American people to govern the whole body,” the New York Democrat told CNN. “It’s a handful [to] ten of them and there are 435 House members.”

While keeping his powder dry on taking the bipartisan route, McCarthy has argued the case for temporarily keeping the government open. One reason, he said, is it will help Republicans when they go to conference with the Senate on the longer-term funding formula.

“I think funding the government while you're going through that conference is important,” he said. “Because if you don't, troops aren’t being paid border agents aren’t being paid. And I don't think you'll have an honest conference at that time. One side will leverage the other.” 

Less Likely Scenarios

There’s an outside chance that House Republicans will reach a breakthrough needed to pass their own short-term funding bill. 

Beefing up border protections is one issue many House Republicans are willing to use as leverage in a fund-or-shutdown war. Their goal would be to get Senate Republicans to use their filibuster power to force Senate Democrats to negotiate.

“This is something I would be willing to shut down the government over if this administration is unwilling to put more reasonable policies in place,” Rep. Garret Graves, R-La., a top McCarthy ally, said. 

If Republicans cannot unite, McCarthy could use a procedural maneuver to allow votes on competing government funding plans.

“I'll put every idea on the floor. Let's see which wins,” McCarthy said last week, citing House rules known as "queen of the hill" and "king of the hill" as options. While the two procedures vary slightly, the idea is to consider multiple plans and let the top vote getter prevail.  

Some Democrats and Republicans have also discussed using a procedural gambit known as a discharge petition to go around McCarthy and force a government funding bill to the floor. A discharge petition requires signatures from 218 members, a majority of the House, to force a vote.

“There are at least five of us [Republicans], which is all that is needed, to sign a discharge petition, which would allow a bill to come to the floor for a vote,” Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., said on Hugh Hewitt's show Friday. “The Democrats have 213 signatures on a previously signed discharge during the debt ceiling negotiations. It’s still live and active.”

However, that procedure takes time. Seven legislative days must pass after a discharge petition secures 218 signatures before a member can force a vote. The government would shut down in the interim.

A discharge petition would keep McCarthy’s fingerprints off a Republican-Democratic collaboration, but hardliners could still blame McCarthy for not trying to stop it.

Rep. Patrick McHenry said he and other McCarthy allies are "awake" to the reality that some ultraconservatives may just be looking for any opportunity to oust the speaker. Still, the North Carolina Republican suggested McCarthy can maneuver around his right flank without losing his gavel. 

“Where we are with all the twists and turns, everybody wants to say today’s the day — and the day passes,” McHenry said. “So never bet against the guy.”