‘He’d Ruin Everything’: Manchin Stokes Democratic Anxiety as He Appears With No Labels in New Hampshire

When Joe Manchin takes the stage at a No Labels event in New Hampshire on Monday, the subtext of the appearance will say a great deal about both the senator’s political future and the third-party presidential bid the centrist group is looking to mount.

The event, held in the traditional early primary state, is almost tailor made to spark speculation – about both No Labels’ third-party bid, which Democrats have blasted as nothing more than a venture to help Republicans, and about Manchin. He has yet to decide whether he will run for reelection in West Virginia and has openly flirted with the idea of running for president.

“I’ve never ruled out anything or ruled in anything,” Manchin told CNN on Wednesday, stoking further intrigue about his political prospects and whether he’ll play the role of spoiler in the 2024 presidential race. 

Democrats are worried that a potential Manchin presidential candidacy, while not likely a winning one, could pull enough votes away from President Joe Biden to hand a Republican like Donald Trump the White House.

“We need to keep a close eye on him,” one Democratic strategist, who worked on recent presidential campaigns, said of Manchin. “I wouldn’t doubt that he’d ruin everything. He could bring the house down. … Look what he’s done the past few years.” 

Even in recent weeks, Manchin has defied Biden on a string of legislation and appointments. Last month, he announced he was opposing the confirmation of Jared Bernstein as the White House’s chief economist. (The Senate ended up confirming Bernstein by one vote.) 

And a month earlier, the senator came out against every one of the president’s nominees to the Environmental Protection Agency. He also went as far as calling Biden’s climate plan “radical.” 

While political observers will be watching what Manchin hints about his own political future, some close to No Labels will be keeping a close eye on how the group frames its third-party bid. If it is cast as an “insurance policy,” the view is that the group’s progress is not as far along as expected. But framing is as a “unity ticket” – a term the group has used because it hopes to have a Republican and Democrat together for a 2024 bid – could be a sign the effort is further down the road.

No Labels has said it plans to raise $70 million for their so-called “insurance policy” against a possible 2024 rematch between Biden and Trump. But it is entirely unclear whether the group is anywhere near that figure. Operatives for the group have been saying for months that it is two-thirds of the way towards the goal, suggesting that it isn’t making much progress.

No Labels spokesperson Maryanne Martini said, “Our fundraising is on pace for our insurance policy project and our movement building activities.”

And then there is the New Hampshire of it all. 

The event, held at Saint Anselm College in Manchester, comes at a time when Democrats are distancing themselves from the early primary state. The initial nominating calendar that Democrats approved in February had New Hampshire losing its first-in-the-nation primary status, moving South Carolina to the top slot and forcing the Granite State to share the second slot with Nevada. 

The move has stung New Hampshire Democrats – who point out a state law that requires the state’s Democratic and Republican primaries to be held at the same time and first – and soured some on Biden and the Democratic National Committee. That has provided an opening for the quixotic challenges by Marianne Williamson and Robert Kennedy Jr., both of whom have made New Hampshire a focus. 

‘Genuinely worried’

Manchin hasn’t shied away from having conversations with those around him about a potential White House run. Sources tell The Messenger he will make a decision about whether to mount a bid by the end of the year or the beginning of next year. 

“I think he’s genuinely worried about the direction of the country,” said one source who has spoken to him in recent weeks. “Does anyone think things are going well? Does anyone think our politics is working?”

The source, who was granted anonymity to discuss private conversations, said Manchin isn’t worried about being perceived as a spoiler in the election or as “a narcissist,” as some Democrats have called him. 

“Elections are not coronations,” the source said. “Do you know who’s actually the spoiler? These two political parties and these two candidates, Biden and Trump, that nobody wants. 

Voters, “don't like the way they've governed, their politics, their rhetoric and how they’re feeding these issues that are tearing the country apart,” the source said. 

Manchin, the source added, is “determined to do what is best for the country, period.” 

“The only thing he’s fixated on is what he can do to move this country forward. It’s not rhetoric for him. It’s genuine.” 

‘Friends with everyone’

The possibility of Manchin running against Biden has placed a renewed focus on the duo’s unique relationship.

Manchin, in part because he would face voters in a deep red state next year if he runs for another term in the Senate, has stood in the way of much of Biden’s legislative agenda, preventing the president from delivering on some of the more progressive promises he made during the 2020 campaign.

Manchin delivered his latest blow to Biden on Thursday, announcing his opposition to Julie Su, the president’s nominee to lead the Department of Labor.

"While her credentials and qualifications are impressive, I have genuine concerns that Julie Su’s more progressive background prevents her from doing this and for that reason I cannot support her nomination to serve as Secretary of Labor,” Manchin said in a statement, hinting that the Biden administration had gone too far to the left, a familiar critique from the senator.

A Democratic operative close to Manchin said that Biden and the West Virginia senator have a “good working relationship,” but did not cast the two men as particularly close. When asked if they were friends, the adviser said, “Manchin is friends with everyone.”

Another Manchin adviser described their relationship as more of a “working” relationship than a personal one.

White House officials say they’re not worried about Manchin’s potential entrance into the 2024 race. Still, Biden, seemingly aware of the unique power Manchin holds in Washington, has also called the senator a friend. 

When the president entered an event to announce investments in rural broadband in June, Biden was greeted by a standing ovation. “Thank you. Please. Thank you,” he said, urging people to sit. “Although, I like the fact Joe Manchin is standing all this time.”