Experts See Louisiana Governor’s Race as Republicans’ to Lose 

Louisiana voters will head to the polls today for the first round of voting to determine the states’ next governor. And although Democrat John Bel Edwards won the seat in 2015 and 2019, experts see this year's race as Republicans’ to lose. 

If one candidate does not receive a majority of the votes on Saturday, the race will go into a run-off between the top two vote-getters in November. Although there are 14 candidates currently in the running, the focus has largely been on GOP state Attorney General Jeff Landry and Democratic former state Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson.

“Absent some particularly vicious infighting, in terms of the party not being able to unite for the runoff, I would say it's theirs to lose,” John Couvillon, a pollster based in Louisiana, said of Republicans. Polls have shown Landry as the frontrunner and a runoff with Wilson the most likely outcome of Saturday's initial round of voting.

The race for the governor’s mansion is a major opportunity for Republicans as the GOP already controls both chambers in the traditionally red state’s legislature and Louisiana is the lone deep South state where Democrats have maintained control of the governorship.

Issues like abortion access and transgender rights have increasingly become state issues, and a win in the governor’s race would essentially give Republicans full control over state policy. Former President Donald Trump carried Louisiana by nearly 20 percentage points in 2020.

“There's just been a lot that Edwards has been able to stave off because of his veto, because of his executive authority. And that's going to all just disappear,” said Bob Mann, professor of Mass Communication at Louisiana State University. 

Both Wilson and Landry received major endorsements from their respective party — Landry getting the stamp of approval from the state Republican party, several high-profile lawmakers, as well as Trump. Wilson, on the other hand, received endorsements from the state Democratic Party, Edwards, and Senior Democratic National Committee Advisor Cedric Richmond, the former congressman from Louisiana's 2nd congressional district, among others, according to local reports.

Despite a crowded Republican field and a Democratic incumbent, one of the main factors experts point to that has helped Landry this time around is less infighting among Republicans at the early stages of the race. 

“Traditionally in these races … being the frontrunner is not always the best place to be for obvious reasons. You are the one that takes the most fire,” Mann said, adding that in the past, Republicans attacked each other so much in the primary race, that once it was time for the runoff election, they wouldn’t unite behind a single candidate.  

“Which is how John Bel gets elected,” he said, referring to the Democratic governor. “This time around, it hasn’t really happened like that as much.” 

Couvillon agreed. “What happened in 2019 was everything was working in Governor John Bel Edwards’ favor,” he said, adding that in addition to Edwards' high approval ratings, a good economy and a strong Democratic ground game, “there was also Republican infighting.” 

Couvillon also noted that Wilson was the head of the state's transportation department, which might not help his case in voters’ eyes.  

“Louisiana is not known for our roads, to be polite,” he said. “Whether Shawn Wilson deserves the blame or not, the reality is, as head of that agency, you're going to be knocked for that.” 

Couvillon said it’s more than just these specific factors that could be working against Wilson, adding that Louisiana is “steadily becoming more Republican friendly,” because unlike Georgia, an increasingly purple southern neighbor, “we have much more of a rural voter base.” 

Wilson faces a historic hurdle as well—if elected, he would become Louisiana's first Black candidate elected statewide since Reconstruction. “I don’t think that it requires a lot of explanation for why a Black Democrat is going to face a lot of headwinds going into a runoff in Louisiana,” Mann said. 

But Wilson could gain some advantage on the issue of abortion. “I think if he has any chance, it is drawing distinctions between him and Landry over reproductive rights,” said Mann, who also worked for Louisiana Democrats for decades before coming to LSU. 

“This is an issue, that even in Louisiana, the public opinion has switched pretty decisively post-Dobbs,” Mann said, later adding, “I'm hoping that he sharpens his message a lot in in the runoff because if he's got a chance, to me that's the only chance that he's got in a heavily Republican state.”