Why Carroll v. Trump Is a Big Deal for the Democrats and Biden

The bad polling for President Biden keeps on coming. His approval ratings keep sinking. Biden is struggling to top 60 percent in a Democratic primary against two underfunded, media-boycotted challengers. And worst of all, he is running behind Donald Trump in the RealClearPolitics averages.

But Trump losing in court to E. Jean Carroll has likely boosted Democrats’ confidence they will face Trump and can defeat him.

On its own, losing a civil case is par for the course for Trump; rather, it is the circumstances and actions around the trial that are telling. In short, the Carroll trial was a test-run for the much bigger trials that are likely to come for Trump.

The case was a blow for Trump. Not only did he lose, but his actions and the reaction of GOP voters and pundits were all the Democrats could hope for. The Carroll jury came back with a guilty verdict so fast the jurors apparently didn’t even take time out for coffee. It was a rout, with neither Trump nor his defense team looking good at all.

In the aftermath, Trump predictably could not help but go on the attack — not only highlighting his loss but also opening himself up for yet another lawsuit by Carroll.

This was also great news for prosecutors in Georgia, New York and the Department of Justice: In the higher stakes of potential felony indictments, prosecutors can be confident that the undisciplined Trump will likely help their cases with his own mouth — and even potentially talk himself into more charges.

On the political side, Trump’s antics agitate the Democratic base and turn off independent voters. As the potential political costs to prosecuting Trump fall and the odds of convicting him rise, the calculus shifts inexorably toward indicting Trump, regardless of the election calendar.

The Republican reaction also had to be heartening for Biden.

Many GOP voters are dismissive of Trump’s legal problems, rallying around him enough to put his support over 50 percent. That Trump’s support has not ticked down at all — even with the Carroll loss and trouble looming in Georgia and from the Department of Justice — is good news for Democrats.

It defies logic. Why would voters of any party doggedly stick with a candidate with the legal risks of Trump? The combination of aggressiveness, victimhood, and complete self-absorption is very powerful, apparently, and has created enough of a cultish following to armor Trump, politically at least, against the Democrats’ legal attack. In addition, the weak and opportunistic indictment in New York gave Trump some legitimate grounds for complaint — if a more substantive indictment had been first out of the gate, Trump would likely be in more serious polling trouble with Republicans.

The slow burn of legal trouble and resilient Republican support has clearly emboldened Trump. And it could mean that Trump won’t quit the race, no matter what.

It will be months from indictment to any trial, and the trials themselves would take even more time. In addition, Trump and his legal team consider objections and delays their art form. As long as Trump leads in the Republican primary polls, he may absolutely refuse to get out — even if his prospects for acquittal are poor.

Democrats could end up with a dream scenario in which Trump is strong enough to get the Republican nomination and then spends the summer and fall of 2024 on trial for multiple felonies.

While victimhood has worked for Trump with his MAGA base, there is little evidence that independent and swing voters are going to flock to a potential felon.

Biden’s unpopularity has not been enough in either 2020 or 2022 to lift Trump or Trump’s candidates to victory. And Biden is very unpopular right now. In the most recent Echelon Insights survey, Biden is down 40 percent favorable to 58 percent unfavorable with only 18 percent of voters thinking the country is on the “right track.” When it comes to the economy, his approval is a miserable 35 percent against 62 percent disapproval. Yet, Biden still edges Trump 46 percent to 44 percent on the ballot test. Cygnal, another GOP-leaning pollster, shows similar bad favorability for Biden, but also has him leading Trump by just under 2 points.

The fundamental problem for Trump — and the positive sign for Biden — is that, even with Biden at about as low as you can go in the polling, Trump still runs roughly even in the ballot test. That should not be the case. Historically, when first-term presidents’ approval ratings dropped down to the low 40s, they were headed for defeat.

Any new legal troubles for Trump — and his own complete lack of discipline — would likely put a cap on his approval ratings. All Biden and the Democrats have to do then is tick up just a bit and rely on enough swing voters deciding that they simply cannot stomach any more Trump drama, even if they would like Biden out the door.

Right now, that’s looking like a good bet.

Keith Naughton, Ph.D., is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Naughton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.