What Will Make Or Break Maui’s Bumpy Recovery?

Hawaii Gov. Josh Green (D) recently announced a planned reopening of West Maui for tourists and residents on Oct. 8, some two months after the tragic fires that swept through the area, with business zones already reopening as of early September. Green has stated that he hopes lifting entry restrictions in the devastated community will restart tourism and the local economy, as some 800 businesses in the area employ 7000 people. State officials have claimed that without a rapid business reopening about 3,000 workers might be laid off. Pro-business voices have been encouraging tourists to return to the area, with hotels and restaurants donating some of their profits to local foundations.

But nearly 4,000 people signed a petition asking the governor to delay the reopening to allow residents more time to grieve, recoup, and start the long recovery process on their own time. Many displaced Hawaiians remain in hotels or short term rentals and face agonizing waits over the fate of loved ones, insurance compensation, assistance from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and debris removal. One displaced resident said, “It’s hard. It feels like we are being abandoned as a community and our voices don’t matter.”

While observers may worry about this pushback, it is a strong sign that local residents intend to be deeply involved in the recovery process rather than allowing outsiders to dictate the pace of rebuilding or its direction. This rocky opening underscores two important lessons from the ongoing recovery, namely 1) Lahaina, and Hawaii as a whole, face longer-term challenges of housing and access, and 2) successful recoveries need bottom-up engagement and community investment.

The Lahaina, Hawaii fires killed at least 97 people. Forensic teams and authorities are trying to identify the remains of many victims, with at least 66 residents still missing. Maui County has stated that 70% of 2,700 structures in the area were destroyed, with 4,500 residents needing housing. Most of them are living in hotels in the area, and many lack insurance.

Well before this most recent shock, though, issues of exclusion and limited access made life on the island challenging, with home ownership out of reach for all but the wealthiest. Median home prices in the area start at $1.2 million, with condos running at $850,000. Before the fires, the core industry on the island was tourism, with many of the jobs employing Filipinos, Native Hawaiians and others who are often socially and economically marginalized. Filipinos make up the second largest ethnic group on the island, about 40% of Lahaina’s population and 70% of the members of the union in the hospitality industries.

While many observers have commented on the number of Hawaiians moving away, the surge in departures from the island after the fires mirrors an ongoing trend. More than a decade ago, most native Hawaiians lived in Hawaii itself. But by 2021, more Hawaiians were living off the island, and it is likely that the fires will accelerate departures. Research has underscored the critical role that stable housing plays in successful recovery processes, and residents, authorities and experts will need to move carefully to keep real estate from being dominated by outsider speculators and large development firms.

Beyond the specific topic of housing, the other issue highlighted by this rocky start in Lahaina is the need for bottom-up engagement and community involvement. Residents reported that they felt the official emergency response system had done little to scale up their assistance until several days after the fire. In the interim, the community had to help itself with local organizations, such as the Chef Hui project, serving about 50,000 hot meals to survivors, along with the Common Ground collective providing more than 128,000 meals. Volunteers traveled to nearby bulk stores like Costco to purchase food, water and medical supplies for those in need. Within a day, people began meeting at a local school, which became the hub for distribution of materials. As with many other shocks, social infrastructure — the places and spaces where we meet — allowed them to coordinate their response.

Residents know the most about their communities, their needs after a disaster, and their vision for the future. But after disasters, many recovery efforts are directed by small groups of elites who are completely disconnected from the local areas their decisions impact. And mistrust between local residents in Hawaii and the government has soared, especially after residents pointed out that an initial emergency proclamation — soon to expire — suspended open-meeting laws, making it harder for residents to formally voice opposition to unwanted rebuilding plans.

As Lahaina residents seek more control over their recovery and their environment, past studies have shown that investing in social infrastructure facilities — such as community centers, libraries and linear reserves — have stronger economic and population recoveries. Such areas also have more resilience to shocks overall. Residents can take a strong hand in guiding how recovery dollars will be spent and whether that money will build community projects or often unnecessary public works. The Maui County Council has already been holding meetings with survivors to figure out how to balance the residents’ needs with those of the tourist economy. Some plans involve new schools and 1,000 affordable housing units, which is a great start.

FEMA data shows a rising number of disasters in Hawaii over the past two decades, so it is likely that as we enter the age of polycrisis — when we see multiple, regional and global crises interacting simultaneously — we need to think about multiple levels of response.

Past recoveries have shown that the community rebuilding and recovery processes will take years, not months. On the long road ahead, residents can build back better, but the process will take effort and contention.

Daniel P. Aldrich is co-director of the Global Resilience Institute, director of the Security and Resilience Studies Program, as well as professor in the Department of Political Science and the School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs at Northeastern University. He has authored five books, including “Site Fights,” “Building Resilience,” and “Black Wave,” along with more than 90 peer-reviewed articles.