Tuesday’s Vote in Ohio Didn’t Happen in a Vacuum

There’s an old African American proverb that says, “Don’t come for us unless we send for you.” Well, it looks like right-wing extremists in Ohio didn’t get that message because their manufactured political power grab failed on Tuesday. It turns out the GOP-controlled state legislature, a Secretary of State with extreme views, MAGA-supporting Senate hopeful Frank LaRose, and others still couldn’t hijack the people’s voice.

Good. But what happened in Ohio cannot stay in Ohio.

The Background Color

Tuesday’s vote didn’t happen in a vacuum. In fact, the referendum that would have made it harder to amend the state constitution represents one of the most obvious attacks on majority rule and direct democracy that MAGA Republicans have launched to date. Here’s the play-by-play.

As in many states, the backlash against the right-wing’s attack on reproductive freedom, particularly the Supreme Court’s decision last year overturning Roe v. Wade, has been giving rise to an effort to enshrine Ohio’s reproductive rights in the state’s constitution. Those efforts, driven by women across Ohio, have put the question on the upcoming November ballot.

Of course, MAGA Republicans in the state aren’t stupid. They saw what happened in Montana when voters soundly defeated a GOP-led referendum to criminalize abortion. They watched women, angry about having their choice stripped away, turn out in Wisconsin to elect Judge Janet Protasiewicz to Wisconsin Supreme Court, giving pro-choice voices a majority on that court for the first time in 15 years. In Michigan, the legislature and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer repealed an abortion ban that stood for more than 90 years. And in Kansas, nearly 60% of voters chose to keep abortion legal and safe in that state last August.

The GOP knew that 58% of Ohio voters — including Democrats, Republicans and independents — support a woman’s right to choose, which meant a November vote has a good chance to enshrine reproductive freedom in the state constitution. So the MAGA extremists waited until the last possible moment, after the General Assembly had said “No” to holding August elections, to approve a special referendum to try to raise the threshold for constitutional amendments from a simple majority to 60%.

You see, the MAGA crowd thought they stood a better chance of winning a low-turnout special election in August than a statewide referendum in November. They thought the forces defending reproductive rights in Ohio wouldn’t have time to organize and mobilize. They decided to use what Rep. Shontel Brown (D-Ohio) calls the good ol’, “If you can’t beat ’em, cheat ’em” strategy. They were wrong.

The Map and the Math

When you look at the practical realities, all elections are about coalitions, consistencies and communities. With that in mind, take a look at the overlay map from Tuesday’s election and you can see how this victory came together.

First, we should note that more than 3 million voters showed up — an unheard of number for an August special election. In fact, more Ohioans cast their ballots this week than voted in the state’s 2014 gubernatorial election. That alone should tell you something. Despite a sleepy summer election, voters were paying attention and they showed up.

Second, we should note this victory was a bipartisan effort. After all, Donald Trump won Ohio in 2016 and 2020 and Republican JD Vance won his Senate race in Ohio less than a year ago. So, how did the forces of reproductive freedom manage not only to win but to do it with 57% of the vote? Maybe turnout alone could count for the victory, but you don’t get the margin unless moderate Republicans voted “No” too.

Third, it’s interesting that this MAGA initiative fell short in traditionally Republican territory. For example, Vance won roughly 70% of the vote in Washington County in November. But Issue 1 squeaked by on Tuesday with just 55% percent. Vance won Wyandot County with 72% of the vote, but that dropped to 63% on Tuesday. Sure, the MAGA folks still won, but the margins shrunk dramatically — and that matters a ton.

Then look at Delaware County, which has gone Republican in every presidential race since 1916: They voted “No” on Tuesday by nearly 58%. In Democratic strongholds like Athens County — which President Biden won in 2020, 57% to 42%, and former Rep. Tim Ryan (D) won with 60% — reproductive freedom won this week with 72% of the vote. And so on. “No” won Summit County with 66% of the vote, Lucas County with 67%, Franklin County with 75% and mighty Cuyahoga County with a whopping 76.5% of the vote.That’s more than half a million votes between Franklin and Cuyahoga alone.

I know there will be so much more to unpack from this vote in the days and weeks to come. But I think it’s pretty clear that, as Congresswoman Brown says, “Ohio is more rigged than red.”

So, what can this teach us about the future? It’s simple: There’s a clear coalition in Ohio, running through rural, urban and suburban areas. It is young voters, seasoned with moms and dads from every walk of life. It’s so many key constituent groups that they’re hard to count, all working together, bound with a singular faith in democracy and a determination to defend it.

You see, when it comes to democracy, we may bend this 247-year experiment but we never break. That is the story of this nation. It’s our story — and there’s nothing partisan about it.

Get Ready for More

In South Carolina, we always say the two most important words in the English language are “thank you” and they’re not said nearly enough. So, the first thing Democrats need to do before we chart this course forward is to say thank you to the people of Ohio. Thank you to all the staffers and volunteers, the pathfinders and the everyday voters. Thank you for showing us the way.

We should also thank the Ohio Chamber of Commerce, the Farm Bureau, and others who funded the “Vote Yes” effort. The contributions to silence people’s voices across Ohio, fueled resources, energy and a tireless spirit that made this moment possible. Believe it or not, because of these groups, along with out- of-town special interests and their attempt to work against the will of a majority of Ohioans, this resulted in voters turning out in historic fashion. The “Vote Yes” anti-democracy funders and supporters sent a message to all of America about where they stand at this critical point in history. So now, the world knows Ohio voters fight back. They punch above their weight and they win.

As we pivot toward November, knowing the fight ahead is always more important than the fight behind, we look at the lessons of this Tuesday night in August and I can’t help but be encouraged. Ballot measures like these are always targeted at the most marginalized of communities — Black folks, working families, immigrants, women. The goal is not just to subdue and suppress but to demonize and divide. If MAGA extremists can blame folks in marginalized communities, they won’t have to face their own reckoning.

But Ohio’s special election told us that Americans won’t stand for it. We’re not buying the snake oil they’re selling. The reckoning is coming, so get ready. The world is watching and the future of this country depends on us. I believe in America’s voters and what they can accomplish — because I saw it in action in Ohio on Tuesday.

Antjuan Seawright (@antjuansea) is a Democratic political strategist, founder and CEO of Blueprint Strategy LLC, a CBS News political contributor, and a senior visiting fellow at Third Way.