Putin’s Days Are Numbered as Russia’s ‘Crime Boss’

Vladimir Putin, Russia’s capo di tutti capi, has just put out a contract on his democratic challenger, Aleksei Navalny. So, don’t be shocked if, a few months from now, some Russian news agency announces that the “extremist” Navalny met his end while provoking the peaceful inmates of a “special regime colony” with his dangerous views.

“Special regime” prisons don’t just reduce inmates’ contacts with the outside world to a minimum. They typically house recidivist murderers, serial killers and rapists who gladly perform violent favors for the prison administration in exchange for amenities such as cigarettes, drugs and food. A kangaroo court recently sentenced the frail Navalny to 19 years in such a hell, knowing full well that his chances of survival are nil.

Putin was obviously punishing Navalny for daring to challenge his rule, but he was also sending a message to other dissidents. By announcing that he would kill Navalny, the boss of Russia’s Murder Incorporated hoped to cement his authority and show that he can still rule with impunity.

Will Putin’s strategy work? Following the Prigozhin Mutiny of June 23-24, Putin hurriedly arrested one of his leading right-wing critics, the genuine extremist and convicted war criminal, Igor Strelkov, and his equally odious pal, the former intelligence officer Vladimir Kvachkov, both of whom were members of the Club of Angry Patriots. Also detained was the left-wing dissident Boris Kagarlitsky. And then came the Navalny verdict.

These rapidly organized arrests smack of fear and desperation. A self-confident capo would have knocked off his challengers months ago in a methodical manner. Instead, Putin, evidently weakened by the Prigozhin Affair and his obvious inability to deal with Prigozhin in the aftermath, felt impelled to strike out in all directions and thereby signal that the boss is back.

Except, of course, that the boss isn’t back. What Putin did was show the world, and his lieutenants, that he could not prevent the mutiny, that he didn’t know how to deal with it when it broke out, and that he lacked the nerve to whack Prigozhin after the putsch was called off. Instead, the capo di tutti capi let the mutineer retain his soldiers, his guns and his money. Announcing that Navalny is effectively a dead man may intimidate some Russian democrats, but it’ll do next to nothing to make Putin respected by his fellow gangsters again. And in the organized criminal system that is Putin’s fascist regime, respect is crucial. Once you lose it, you may as well stash your brass knuckles and blackjack.

Russia’s political, military and secret police elites now know that Putin’s days are numbered. And they are surely mobilizing their resources, forming alliances, and plotting how to dispose of the erstwhile strongman with least cost. Putin knows this, of course, and he hopes that the harshness of the Navalny verdict will persuade his comrades that he’s still in charge. Sentencing Prigozhin to 19 years in a special regime colony might have done the trick. Sentencing Navalny is like whacking a punk while letting the boss go free.

The only real questions are when the next mutiny will take place and whether it will finally succeed.

That said, the extreme sadism practiced by Putin and his lieutenants has not gone unnoticed by the international community, Ukrainians, and Russian human rights activists. Putin doesn’t care, now, but their testimonies will be indispensable when his comrades remove him, make him the fall guy, and possibly even hand him over to the International Criminal Court in The Hague.

Vladimir Osechkin, the exiled Russian human rights activists and founder of the No to the Gulag (Gulagu.net) organization and website, has detailed the exceptionally inhuman conditions under which Ukrainian prisoners of war are kept. Torture and beatings by sadistic guards are business as usual.

Lyudmyla Huseynova, a Ukrainian activist who spent three years in prisons run by the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic, described in a recent interview the tortures she had to endure: She was stripped naked, harassed and abused, beaten, and forced to stand all day long.

Significantly, the experience didn’t break her spirit. She opposed the administration by voting against Russia’s annexation of the occupied Ukrainian territories. And after her release, she made a principled decision to abandon her life-long use of Russian and speak only Ukrainian.  

Putin’s sadism won’t break Navalny’s spirit either. Or that of his colleague, Vladimir Kara-Murza, who was sentenced to a special regime colony in April 2023 for 25 years. Both men returned to Russia knowing they would be arrested. Putin, who spends his days in bunkers and greets guests behind enormous tables, would never put himself in such danger. No capo di tutti capi more fearful of death than of disrespect can prevail, ultimately, against such heroism.

Alexander J. Motyl is a professor of political science at Rutgers University-Newark. A specialist on Ukraine, Russia and the USSR, and on nationalism, revolutions, empires and theory, he is the author of 10 books of nonfiction, as well as “Imperial Ends: The Decay, Collapse, and Revival of Empires” and “Why Empires Reemerge: Imperial Collapse and Imperial Revival in Comparative Perspective.”