Today’s Crises, Here and Abroad, Echo the Disasters of the Past

Are we hearing echoes from the past that could be precursors of future catastrophe? At home and abroad, it seems we indeed are witnessing events that recall the historic moments which led both the United States and the world into bloody cataclysms in earlier eras.

On April 12, 1861, just before sunrise, Confederate soldiers opened fire on the Union’s Fort Sumter in Charleston, South Carolina, beginning the Civil War. The inhuman practice of slavery was, of course, the overarching moral question and a root cause of the Civil War — but another root cause was the ambiguity of where or how states’ rights could override federal law.  

Texas recently passed three three laws aimed at halting illegal immigration, one of them authorizing police to arrest suspected illegals entering the state. The U.S. Department of Justice filed a lawsuit, arguing that Texas cannot have separate laws in conflict with the federal government’s. This sets up a potentially titanic legal battle over the Tenth Amendment and the Declaration of Independence — much as occurred in 1861 over states’ rights.

The Tenth Amendment states: “The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.” The Declaration of Independence asserts: “When Government becomes destructive, it is the right of the people to alter and abolish it and establish a new one.” On both counts, Texas may offer an interesting argument.

Texas sees the massively uncontrolled flow of people seeking entry to the United States as intolerable, and rightly observes that immigration policies are not working. Clearly, a physical attack against the Union will not follow this time. But when the nation is so politically divided over virtually every issue, what can states do when the federal government cannot cope with a self-evident crisis and the Constitution has no answer? The courts undoubtedly will side with the Justice Department, and the immigration crisis will remain unresolved.  

June 28, 1914, was the day that Austro-Hungarian Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife were gunned down in Sarajevo, provoking World War I. Today, Russia’s war in Ukraine is less likely to escalate in such a manner, but Israel’s war in Gaza against the Iran-backed terror group Hamas is a different proposition. Two days ago in Iran, explosions killed 84 people and wounded many others who were marking the fourth anniversary of the assassination of General Qasem Soleimani, former commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force. 

Although the Islamic State has claimed responsibility for the bombings, Iran may conclude that one of its two mortal enemies — Israel (the other being the United States) — somehow had a hand in the attack. Israel has been technically brilliant in the covert operations it has conducted against Iran, from stealing the most classified details of its nuclear programs to assassinating its scientists. The rationale for such an attack would be self-evident: Iran has supported Hamas in its war with Israel, though not as strongly as is commonly believed — but Hezbollah is the true first-team Iranian foil, and it has threatened Israel in the past and is doing so now.

Iran may decide to move more quickly on its nuclear weapons program, or to use the Yemen-based Houthis to increase attacks on shipping in the Gulf, or to mobilize Hezbollah for an all-out engagement with Israel. And, once again, the echo with the past — in which a regional conflict begets global conflagration — is strong.

This echo is reinforced by the war in Ukraine, which seems to be moving in Russia’s favor at the moment, as well as the forthcoming Taiwan elections that could trigger action by Beijing to “reunify” Taiwan and China, depending upon who is elected. 

Short of a major war, rarely has international politics been confronted by so many conflicts in so many geostrategically vital regions at once.

Exacerbating these dangers, however, is the larger concern about governing in the U.S. The Texas laws to halt illegal entry into America are an unmistakable sign that the federal government is failing. Congress seems incapable of acting on aid for Ukraine and Israel, let alone reforms to alleviate the crisis at our southern border. The debt ceiling and budget impasse will come due this month, and a government shutdown — perhaps lasting months — is possible. With all this happening, about three-fourths of Americans understandably do not wish to have a rerun of the 2020 presidential election this fall.   

Even more sobering, echoes of 1929 might be heard as well — especially if the government shuts down with devastating impact. Recall that in September 1929, the gyrations on Wall Street began that led to the October stock market crash and the Great Depression. 

Could these potential crises be contained through competent leadership? Possibly. But where have all the great leaders gone — and does anyone care? This year will answer these questions, for better or worse. 

Harlan Ullman is senior adviser at the Atlantic Council. He is the author of “Shock and Awe,” “Anatomy of Failure: Why America Loses Every War It Starts,” and his latest book, “The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Looming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at Large.”