Guatemala’s Democracy Is in Trouble. Here’s How — And Why — the US Should Help

Guatemalans will head to the polls to vote for president on June 25 at a time of real peril for the country’s democracy. From blocking candidates from participating in the election to sentencing one of the country’s most prominent journalists to four years in prison, the precarious state of Guatemala’s political institutions demonstrates just how important the rule of law is to maintaining a healthy democracy.

With 22 candidates competing, a run-off on Aug. 20 is a near certainty, but three candidates have emerged as the leading contenders: Sandra Torres, the liberal candidate and ex-wife of the late President Alvaro Colom; Edmond Mulet, the centrist candidate and a former diplomat; and Zury Rios, the conservative candidate and former congresswoman and daughter of the late General Efrain Rios Montt.

The process by which candidates were prevented from participating offers important insights into how Guatemala’s political process has become corrupted. When a little-known populist presidential candidate, Carlos Pineda, took the lead in recent polls, a rival party filed a motion with Guatemala’s Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) to have Pineda’s party canceled. The legal maneuver, which the Constitutional Court upheld, was initiated by two-time presidential candidate Manual Baldizon, whose political career was interrupted by a stint in a U.S. prison for conspiring to launder money. Baldizon returned to Guatemala last year to run for Congress.

Equally worrisome has been the decline of the free press, which reached new lows with the recent imprisonment of José Rubén Zamora, the founder of leading investigative newspaper, El Periodico, on charges of money laundering and influence peddling. Reporters Without Borders’ Freedom Index ranks Guatemala 127 among 180 countries, falling 11 places within just two years. Attacks on independent media have run parallel to another trend: the removal of anti-corruption prosecutors and judges, many of whom have been forced to flee the country.

Political corruption is nothing new in Guatemala. Former President Alvaro Colom was convicted in 2018 for a multimillion-dollar payment scheme, and former President Alfonso Portillo served five years in a U.S. prison for money laundering. Yet the situation began to further deteriorate when the independent Guatemala Commission Against Corruption and Impunity’s (CICIG) was canceled under President Jimmy Morales in 2019. The CICIG had become a powerful force in rooting out systemic graft and holding public officials to account: Its most successful case uncovered a billion-dollar customs bribery scheme in 2015, resulting in the resignation and imprisonment of President Otto Perez Molina and Vice President Roxanna Baldetti. 

Guatemalans across the political spectrum supported the case, rallying to the cause in a series of massive marches on its public square in Guatemala City. However, some argue that CICIG went too far in subsequent cases, and its contentious approach polarized the issue in a way that made it ripe for manipulation by opponents of anti-corruption reform.

Guatemalans are painfully aware of how pervasive corruption has become. The Corruption Perception’s Index places Guatemala among the world’s worst, ranking 150 out of 180 countries, and its ranking under the World Justice Project’s Rule of Law Index continues to decline, at 114 out of 140 countries. This situation has bred widespread distrust in government and, for some, even of democracy itself. When Guatemala signed its Peace Accords in 1996, 50% of the population supported democracy; today, only 37% do, with 31% indifferent to either a democratic or authoritarian form of government.

Weak political institutions and opportunities for corruption have created a vacuum that bad actors like drug traffickers have rushed to fill. Not only does up to 90% of the cocaine exported to North America pass through Guatemala, Mexico’s two major cartels are battling for control of Guatemala’s drug trade and have relied on political corruption to maintain this dominance. Indeed, former Union for National Change presidential candidate Mario Estrada was sentenced to 15 years in a U.S. prison for promising the Sinaloa cartel unfettered access to Guatemala’ airports and ports in return for campaign donations.

Unsurprisingly, many Guatemalans have concluded that they have little future in their own country and are among the groups driving the migrant crisis on America’s border. In 2014, of the 500,000 migrants detained at the border, 80,000 were Guatemalan, rising to 231,565 out of 2.7 million by 2021, the latest year for which statistics are available.

Following this election, the U.S. has a window of opportunity to refocus its policies on the issues creating so much dysfunction in both Guatemala and the broader region. While President Giammattei’s administration has collaborated with the U.S. to stem drug and irregular migrant flows, strong action is needed to tackle the problems driving these transnational issues. As part of this effort, democracy and governance assistance should prioritize programs to strengthen accountability and transparency in governmental institutions, as well as continuing to provide support for Guatemala’s independent press and civil society organizations.

Guatemalan democracy appears to be in trouble. Without concerted action to confront this problem, the consequences will continue to spread — and beyond Guatemala’s borders.

Bernardo J. Rico is the director for Guatemala and Honduras at the International Republican Institute. He previously was deputy assistant administrator for Latin America and the Caribbean at USAID.