Gavin Newsom Looks Like Someone Who’s Running. But Can He Beat Joe Biden?

The incumbent Democratic president was profoundly weak heading into his reelection campaign. No, we're not referring to Joe Biden but to Jimmy Carter, the soft-spoken Georgian elected to help heal a nation scarred by Richard Nixon's Watergate scandal and eventual resignation. 

According to Gallup, Carter sat at 29% approval, 57% disapproval, on June 22, 1979. More than a few party members quietly hoped he would not seek a second term, given numbers like that. 

Inflation was far too high, well into double-digit territory. Crime across the board continued to increase nationwide. SAT scores had fallen precipitously for American high school students. And the world was becoming increasingly unstable, with Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in control in Iran (the hostage crisis occurred later that year, when 52 U.S. diplomats were seized) and the Soviets preparing to invade Afghanistan.

If all of this sounds familiar, it should. President Biden is Jimmy Carter 2.0, underwater in polling on his handling of all these issues.

In 1979, sensing a real opportunity, then-Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-Mass) announced his candidacy for the presidency. Leading up to his announcement that November, polls showed Kennedy to be the stronger candidate to beat the Republican nominee, who eventually would become Ronald Reagan. 

Fast forward to 2023: Ted Kennedy's nephew, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., is making the White House sweat by grabbing between 14% and 21% in polling against Biden. This, despite the fact that RFK Jr. isn't a sitting senator like his uncle was and has never held any public office. 

Unexpected endorsements for Kennedy keep coming in as well, from Twitter founder Jack Dorsey to Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers, from actress Alicia Silverstone to conspiracy theorist Alex Jones (yes, that Alex Jones). And, in a related story, poll after poll shows a majority of Democrats do not support Biden seeking a second term, underscoring how weak the president is perceived within his own party. 

Somewhere — likely before or after a TV interview, given his full-scale media blitz lately — Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.), 55, is likely watching all of this and asking himself, "If an anti-vaccine quack like RFK Jr. is at 20 percent in polling, and spiritual guru Marianne Williamson is at nearly 10 percent, what would these polls look like if a relatively young, charismatic leader of the country's largest state decided to jump in the race?” 

Every poker player has a tell, that subtle sign of showing their hand without even knowing it. For his part, Newsom wasn't so subtle in showing it during a recent interview with Fox News' Sean Hannity.

Hannity asked, referring to Biden and 2024: “How many times is your phone pinging a day with people saying you need to get in this race because they agree with me that he’s not up to the job?”

“Oh, I see where you’re going with that,” Newsom replied.

Hannity: “I’m asking.”

Newsom: “No, and I’m not answering.”

A simple "No, I'm not running, I fully support the president" would have sufficed there. But Newsom clearly left the door open. And with no book to hawk (which is what usually leads any current or former politicians to go on such media tours), there must be another motivation for Newsom to appear on Fox News for the first time since 2010 — and why he’s doing so much media in general. 

Newsom’s ubiquity isn't lost on anyone, including Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.), who has been a frequent target of so many Newsom attacks. "He has a real, serious fixation on Florida,” DeSantis said, “but what I would tell him is … stop pussyfooting around. Are you going to throw your hat in the ring and challenge Joe? Or are you going to sit on the sidelines and chirp? Why don't you throw your hat in the ring, and then we'll go ahead and talk about what's happening.”

A DeSantis-Newsom battle for the presidency obviously would be a battle of strong personalities but also a true contrast of two executives and their approach to running two large states. In the end, after all the debate, the question for the American electorate would be simple: Would you rather have the country resemble Florida or California?  

For Newsom, his candidacy in the primaries would center around another simple question: Do you believe Joe Biden is fit to be president now or at age 86? 

The latter would be the president's age in November 2028, near the end of a second term. And, as we've seen from 80-year-old Joe Biden, he's not aging well. He has fallen on multiple occasions, most recently at the Air Force Academy after a commencement speech. But it's not just the physical issues; more importantly, the mental ones that are being noted, even by the New York Times editorial board, the same paper that has not endorsed a Republican presidential candidate in 67 years. 

"Concerns about age — both in terms of fitness for office and being out of touch with the moment — are legitimate … But Mr. Biden has given voters very few chances to do just that — to watch him — and his refusal to engage with the public regularly raises questions about his age and health,” the board writes.

Per the Wall Street Journal editorial board: "The public understands what Mr. Biden apparently won’t admit: that electing an octogenarian in obvious decline for another four years could be an historic mistake."

Newsom also likely sees these major outlets screaming for an alternative before looking at the usual first option in these situations: the vice president. Kamala Harris, the profoundly awkward and largely hidden VP, is somehow polling lower than Biden. Democratic voters already rejected her during her own presidential run in 2020, when she dropped out months before Iowa. 

So with Harris a nonstarter, who's left on the Democratic bench? 

Democratic socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who could potentially be in the White House into his 90s if he were to win twice? How about Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) who, at the current age of 33, would barely be eligible to hold office (35 is in the minimum). 

Maybe Pete Buttigieg, 41, who hasn't exactly shined as Transportation secretary after massive supply chain issues and travel woes showing he's clearly in over his head? Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) or Amy Klobachar (D-Minn.)? Haven't we seen these movies before?

All of this said, Newsom doesn't have a good or even average record to run on. 

California has the country’s highest income tax rate at 13.3%, while states like Florida and Texas have no income taxes. The Golden State also has the highest poverty rate in the U.S., while drug-fueled tent cities engulf parts of cities like Los Angeles. 

And more people are leaving California than any other state except New Jersey. The top destinations? The red states of Florida, Texas and Tennessee. 

But that may not matter to enough voters to tip the scales back to the Republican nominee, especially if that's Donald Trump. We live in a world where people are more inclined to vote against a candidate or party than actually for their choice. 

Newsom's staunch pro-choice and anti-gun stances certainly won't hurt him with the Democratic base. His 58% approval in California underscores that; when you’re talking about Democratic voters, they appear to like his style. 

Gavin Newsom versus Joe Biden for the Democratic nomination? 

It could very well come down to that. 

And unlike 1980, when Ted Kennedy took his fight all the way to the floor of the Democratic National Convention before falling short of delegates, Newsom might actually win the nomination or compel Biden to step aside. 

In a political era where the impossible can be possible, it's impossible to rule out anything. Especially when the Democratic incumbent is this vulnerable.

Joe Concha is a media critic, politics and sports commentator, and a contributor on Fox News.