DeSantis’s Failure to Launch Is Not All That’s Wrong with His Campaign

Ron DeSantis’s presidential campaign launch could not have gone worse. His selection of platform, substance, style and follow-on were about as mediocre to ineffectual as they could have been. Indeed, to have plotted a launch that could have gone worse is hard to imagine.

First, the obvious: The idea of thinking that an announcement on Twitter with its owner, Elon Musk, would, in some way, be a breakthrough simply confounds logic and experience. At its peak, just roughly 500,000 people tuned in to DeSantis’s launch, and when the technical issues that bedeviled the event manifested themselves, the crowd that stuck with the announcement through the glitches was down to just 250,000 listeners.

Put another way, DeSantis’s fear of a more conventional launch — be it a rally, a speech before the press, or a four- to five-state tour — all but ensured that his launch would not only have minimal impact but, given the technical difficulties, would produce headlines that were damning, to say the least.

Moreover, DeSantis’s substance was effectively “I’m Trump without Trump’s problems.” There was no effort in any serious way to differentiate himself from the former president — still his main rival and the front-runner for the Republican nomination — other than suggesting elliptically that he would “look forward and not backward” and that he was the true culture warrior on issues such as abortion and education.

To that end, DeSantis spent plenty of time criticizing the “woke mob.” But he offered very little concrete information on his plans to strengthen the economy, get inflation under control, create jobs, or approach the multiple geopolitical threats facing the U.S.

Indeed, in a Q&A session immediately following the announcement, when Fox News host Trey Gowdy pressed him on how he would approach the war in Ukraine as president, DeSantis doubled down on the culture wars, saying: “First, I think what we need to do, as a veteran, is recognize that our military has become politicized. You talk about gender ideology, you talk about things like global warming … we need to return the military to its core mission.”

While playing to the right-wing of the Republican Party makes sense for DeSantis, it does not seem logical that trying to “out-Trump” Donald Trump by moving to the right is a likely path for success. 

Additionally, DeSantis’s problems were not just limited to the content of his announcement. He only went on conservative media and did not avail himself of the opportunity that a high-profile announcement offers to get on mainstream network television across the cable landscape.

And while it is certainly the case that Republican primary voters watch largely Fox News, Newsmax and One America Network, it also seems to be a profound mistake to willingly give up an opportunity to address the whole country and get the attention of a more traditional announcement.

It also reflects DeSantis’s fear of talking to the broader media, and it is a stark contrast to Trump’s willingness to engage, as he did with CNN’s Kaitlan Collins two weeks earlier. Further, with the GOP electorate at least showing some signs of being willing to consider an alternative to Trump, the fact that DeSantis did not speak directly to disaffected Republicans would also seem to be a major drawback of his announcement.

The possibility of DeSantis quickly flaming out or being permanently mired in the range of 20% support is now much more of a distinct possibility than it was even a month ago, given the clear failure of his announcement to break through and to present himself as a compelling, effective counterweight to the former president.

As if to rub salt in the Twitter Spaces wound, DeSantis seems unable to avoid technical difficulties plaguing his nascent campaign. During a Newsmax interview on Thursday, DeSantis’s video feed cut out, freezing his face on the screen while the audio continued playing.

Of course, it would be an overstatement to say that DeSantis is suddenly out of the race entirely. He isn’t. Trump appears to have escalating legal problems, and it’s anyone’s guess what impact, if any, those will have on the primary process.

DeSantis has hundreds of millions of dollars at his disposal and that of supportive Super PACs. It is also logical to assume that DeSantis will concentrate on building momentum in the key caucus or primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

But, in that DeSantis now starts some 30 points behind the former president in recent polls and got almost uniformly bad publicity with his launch, it’s becoming increasingly likely that the general election for president in 2024 will be between a Joe Biden with approval ratings hovering around 40% and a former president with not-dissimilar ratings and a myriad of legal and ethical questions swirling around him.

Douglas E. Schoen is a lawyer, political analyst and consultant. He advised President Bill Clinton during his 1996 reelection campaign and former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg during his 2020 presidential campaign, among other public figures. He is the author of numerous books, including “Power: The 50 Truths” (2023).