Are Democrats Losing Control of the Climate Issue?

Franklin Roosevelt framed his presidency in his first inaugural address by stating, “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” Translated, this means that fear was generating a sense of helplessness, hopelessness and apprehension. Roosevelt focused on replacing fear with hope, and his “New Deal” programs slowly moved the needle and restored some faith in the future.

Today, as we head into the 2024 elections, large parts of the electorate appear to be fearful as well, but this time politicians are fanning the fear, especially when it comes to climate change. Democrats have used the issue successfully, especially with young voters, as a weapon against Republicans, but the issue is evolving in unexpected ways because unrealistic goals were set.

Climate change, as an issue, is considered by most to be settled science and is positioned as dogma. This effectively has shut down debate, to a large extent, so the issue has taken on a life of its own and is evolving in ways that cannot be completely controlled. Most Americans want climate issues to be addressed in a responsible way, but young people see the issue very differently than older generations.

Pew Research in 2023 found that 31% of Americans want to phase out fossil fuels, and among younger adults — ages 18-29 — the percentage rises to 48% and reaches nearly 60% with those who favor Democrats. As Harvard Political Review reported, young people are worried that earth is headed toward a climate catastrophe in the next decade, in which “ecosystems will be altered.” The alert raised was: “Climate change is causing members of the next generation to develop eco-anxiety as they realize they will have to deal with the damage that is yet to come.” 

Roosevelt dealt with difficult problems that included unemployment, runs on banks, business failures, and homelessness, all of which were finite and solvable. The climate issue is the opposite. People are being told that they can control nature, but whatever is done is always inadequate to achieve this goal, so they are frustrated and demand more draconian measures.

A Harris Poll, reported in Axios, found that 84% of Gen Z — those born in the late 1990s and early 2000s — think the world is becoming unlivable; 69% see their families being affected by environmental issues in the near term, and 62% think previous generations have not been good stewards of the environment. These views can only translate to the most extreme policies. Climate czar John Kerry said in 2021, “Well, the scientists told us three years ago we had 12 years to avert the worst consequences of climate crisis. We are now three years gone, so we have nine years left.”  

Many young people do not see Kerry’s statement as political; to them, it’s confirmation of their worst fears by someone who should know the truth. They live with the belief that they are about to be hit by a tsunami and no one cares. With every new natural disaster, their greatest fears are affirmed: They are experiencing the beginning of the end.

There is nothing to break their fall, since we have entered a “Cassandra period,” in which facts about climate that could help to mitigate irrational fears are kept out of the public square or dismissed out of hand. And social media-fueled hysteria is leading to increased anxiety and desperation among many young voters.

A report in Business Insider noted, “A climate crisis, a flagging economy, and generational trauma have made the prospect of parenthood unappealing for many Gen Zers.” In polling conducted by Resume Builder and reported in the New York Post, managers reported that many in this generation appear to lack effort, motivation and productivity, making them difficult to employ. This begs the question: Why adapt to societal norms when the world is supposedly ending?

In issues management, as Presidents Lyndon Johnson, who dealt with the Vietnam War, and Jimmy Carter, who was unable to free American hostages in Iran before leaving office, both learned, you can reach a point where you stop managing the issue and the issue starts managing you. In 2024, some Democrats are beginning to sense that they may no longer control climate change as an issue.

Climate Defiance, a group of activists who forced Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg off a stage in Baltimore, reportedly wrote in a letter, “The President's reversal of his campaign promise to end drilling on federal lands and his relentless approval of new oil and gas projects jeopardize the survival of our species — and threaten his own political future.” There is no way to appease groups that believe their survival is determined by how politicians manage the climate change issue.

Democrats may have thought they had found the formula to position issues advantageous to their politics as unassailable. What they are now finding is that issues predicated on fear take on lives of their own and eventually become unmanageable.

Roosevelt instilled hope in place of fear. The rhetoric in 2024 could replace fear with panic — and what comes next is anyone’s guess.

Dennis M. Powell, the founder and president of Massey Powell, is an issues and crisis management consultant and the author of the book, “Leading from the Top: Presidential Lessons in Issues Management.”