Can Virginia Give Glenn Youngkin What He Needs to Run for President?

Glenn Youngkin is one of those names that keeps showing up in the news as a possible 2024 presidential candidate for the Republicans, but so far he has not broken out — possibly because he is not officially running, but also because he is hobbled by his experience as governor of Virginia. 

The Republican Party holds a slim majority in the Virginia House of Delegates and Democrats hold a slim majority in the state Senate. This deadlock has prevented Youngkin from passing most of his major policy goals. Even the state budget was delayed until lawmakers passed one in a special session just a few weeks ago. 

This November, every seat in the Virginia legislature is up for re-election. Additionally, a new district map is being used for both chambers for the first time. 

According to VPAP.org, the Virginia Senate has 13 districts with a Republican incumbent running, 16 districts have a Democratic incumbent running, and 11 seats are open with no incumbent. Of those open seats, only District 10 is uncontested; Republican John McGuire is running there. All the other seats either have a “safe” incumbent or — as with most Senate seats — both parties are running candidates. 

In the House of Delegates, 36 are incumbent Republicans, 31 are Democratic, and 33 are open seats. Thirty-two of those districts are uncontested, but 68 are contested.

The goal for the Democrats is to hold the Senate and possibly flip the House. Republicans would like to hold onto their House majority and flip the Senate red.

Chances are, however, that we will end up on Nov. 7 with the Senate still in Democratic hands and the House in Republican hands — effectively making Youngkin a “lame duck” unable to pass legislation around the Virginia Republican platform. This essentially would shut down talk of Youngkin as a challenger to the GOP’s presumptive nomination of Donald Trump for the White House next summer. 

But if the Republicans can hold the House of Delegates and win the Senate, the outcome could be quite different.

Youngkin rocked the GOP world in 2021 by winning the race for governor in what was a purple-trending blue state. One could argue that, outside of Northern Virginia and the Tidewater area, Virginia is still a pretty red state. And one could also point out that former governor Terry McAuliffe was not terribly popular. Furthermore, Virginia only once has returned a governor to the job; governors are prohibited from running for re-election in Virginia if in office, but technically can run after sitting out at least a term. 

However, all this ignores what Youngkin was able to accomplish — making parental choice in education a middle-of-the-road topic, presenting himself as a young-ish and energetic choice and, crucially, doing so without the explicit support of Trump. The chatter on the evening of the 2021 election was that Youngkin could possibly go all the way to the White House if he wanted.

That talk has cooled somewhat over the past two years as Youngkin has struggled to raise his profile in the GOP. He remains fairly popular in Virginia, where most recent polls put him at or above a 50% approval rating. His main problem? No major legislative wins that can give him national attention, such as Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) amassed in Florida, because the Virginia Senate has acted as a firewall against efforts to enact the GOP platform. Another problem for a potential 2024 presidential campaign: Deadlines to file for state primaries are rapidly approaching; Nevada's deadline, for example, is Oct. 16. And, finally, there is the challenge of forming campaign teams around the country and raising campaign money, starting way behind all of the other candidates.

All this could change if, in November 2023, Virginia delivers both chambers of the legislature to the GOP. Then Youngkin and the GOP could pass legislation around Republican policy proposals — say, access to abortion or school choice. Youngkin could tout these wins on the campaign trail if he chose to run for president. 

Although he would have an uphill climb, he could have some advantages. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has been fading in public opinion polls like a toddler who has spent the day at a theme park. Youngkin’s numbers, for a long time under 1%, have risen to nearly double digits in some recent polls. And a recent Virginia Commonwealth University poll put Youngkin winning the presidency in a potential match-up against President Biden. 

This is good news for Youngkin, but with no clear polling numbers yet regarding who might win in Virginia in November, Youngkin remains on the sidelines. He still needs Virginia to give him another win this fall to propel him to the national stage. 

David Richards, Ph.D., is associate professor, International Relations & Security Studies, and chair of the Political Science program and International Relations & Security Studies program in the School of Social Sciences at the University of Lynchburg.