Does the Rise of Nikki Haley Mean Trouble for Joe Biden?

Politicians and pundits have been so focused on Donald Trump that we have ignored the full range of alternative outcomes that are possible in a crazy electoral climate. It’s time to think outside of the box: What happens if the former president doesn’t win the Republican presidential nomination? What would the emergence of Nikki Haley, former South Carolina governor and United Nations ambassador, mean for President Joe Biden?

Many pundits and politicians have assumed that a Trump nod is inevitable. Biden must think so, since he has spent the new year focused on the Trump threat.

But the failed former president could falter in the early GOP contests in New Hampshire and South Carolina, and Haley could cash in on her momentum to grab the gold ring on the GOP merry-go-round.

What happens if Trump scores an ugly, poorer-than-predicted win in Iowa on Monday, then crashes and burns in New Hampshire? The third primary stop for Republicans will be Haley’s home state, South Carolina.

Let’s go to the big board: Trump still has a lead in the Hawkeye State. Two new polls there have Trump at just over half the vote, with Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the teens. He may win there, but if less than half of the GOP caucusgoers show up for him Monday night, that could be a troubling sign for Trump. It would indicate a large group of Republicans are open to an alternative, which wouldn’t be good news for the frontrunner.

If Trump wins but wins ugly in Iowa, the question is whether DeSantis or Haley comes in second. DeSantis has bet the farm on a strong Iowa showing, and Monday night could be the end of the road if he doesn’t meet expectations.

Haley lives to fight another day unless she completely flames out in Iowa. She appears to enjoy significant support in the first-in-the-nation primary in the Granite State and the endorsement of New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu. Her growing support in the first primary state could be a reverse coattail that improves her position in Iowa, the first caucus state, a week earlier.

New Hampshire has become a two-way fight between Trump and Haley. A new poll has Trump under the 50% mark, with 44% support to 28% for Haley. Meanwhile, Trump is on trial in New York while she is on the campaign trail in the Granite State.

The only other candidate in double digits in the same poll was former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, at 12%. However, he ended his presidential campaign Wednesday, having had nowhere to go after going for broke in the Granite State.

A door opens when one closes: Christie’s departure and DeSantis's struggle provide an opportunity for Haley to become the rally point for anti-Trump dissidents. 

Trump certainly sees her as a threat. The airways in the Boston and Manchester, N.H., TV markets are full of a Trump TV ad that attacks his own one-time UN ambassador for her opposition to the Trump border wall and his ban on travel from “terrorist” nations.

The independents who can vote in New Hampshire's GOP primary are a great aid to Haley’s effort. If she wins in New Hampshire or keeps Trump close, she will punctuate the air of inevitability surrounding Trump, prove she has potential appeal for independent voters in the big battleground states, and get a big bounce for the next battle on her home court in the Palmetto State.

After South Carolina, the GOP campaign goes national. The GOP battle will extend to states that include Colorado and Maine, where Trump won’t even be on the primary ballot unless the U.S. Supreme Court rides to his rescue.

What would a Haley nomination mean for Biden? Nothing good.

In tight general election matchups, Haley runs slightly better than Trump against the incumbent. She is very conservative but enjoys a personal image that appears moderate. She shares Trump’s beliefs but has none of his bombast. She appeals to swing voters who can’t abide the president and his predecessor.

It took a conservative president — Richard Nixon — to travel to China and open a relationship with the communist regime. Might it take a conservative woman — Haley — to break the presidential gender barrier and rise above the glass ceiling that Hillary Clinton failed to crack?

Biden has been running against Trump since 2020. The president would need to do a complete 180 to retool his reelection campaign for a race against Haley. Her service in the Trump cabinet gives the president the opportunity to tag her as a Trump clone. But Trump is a true believer, while she’s flexible and subtle enough to avoid the extremist tag.

She found a way to run against Biden and Trump at the same time with her “New Generation of Conservative Leadership” message. She could carry that message through the primaries and into the general election without skipping a beat. If she wants to stay above the ideological fray, she could simply drop the word "conservative" out of her slogan.

I hope Biden and his campaign team have a Plan B in their back pocket, in the event of a Haley nomination. The political climate in the United States today is as volatile as Mount Vesuvius before the big blow that leveled Pompeii.

Brad Bannon is a Democratic pollster, CEO of Bannon Communications Research, and the host of the “aggressively progressive” political podcast, “Deadline D.C. with Brad Bannon.”