Things Look Bleak for Biden, But Four Factors Could Topple Trump in ’24

With the 2024 presidential election just 302 days away, here's where President Joe Biden stands today: No president in the history of polling has been in a worse position when seeking reelection. And despite his likely opponent facing 91 felony counts against him, Biden stands as the underdog against Donald Trump. 

Here's how bad the public approval numbers are for Biden when breaking it down by the issues most important to voters, according to the RealClearPolitics average of major polls: 

And with Biden only getting older and his vacations getting longer (he spent 138 days of 2023 in "relaxing locations or famous retreats,” according to the New York Post), it's not difficult to imagine Biden again employing the so-called “basement strategy” of 2020 since he may not have the stamina to keep up with Trump on the campaign trail. Overall, the RealClearPolitics betting averages put Trump as a 9-point favorite entering 2024. 

So, while things look bleak now and with a majority of Democratic voters saying they'd prefer someone else be their nominee, how can Biden possibly pull a rabbit out of his hat 11 months from now? 

Here are four factors that could change his chances enough to squeak out a victory: 

If the economy continues to improve 

Biden stands at 60% disapproval regarding his handling of the economy overall as the calendar turns from 2023 to 2024, while less than half of voters believe the economy will improve this year. In other words, expectations are low heading into the election. 

But 2023 was a great year on the jobs front, with 216,000 jobs added in December alone, making it the best year for annual job growth since 2015. Unemployment remains near all-time lows at 3.7%. 

Meanwhile, the U.S. GDP grew by 4.9% in the third quarter, the economy's biggest expansion in years. Many economists predicted a recession in 2023, which is usually marked by two straight quarters of GDP decreases; that didn’t happen. As a result, the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in 2024, which should help jumpstart a stagnant homeowners market. The stock market also continues to rise, with the Dow near an all-time high in December, eclipsing 37,000 points. 

For now in the polling, Trump is more trusted to handle the economy than Biden, by an 18-point margin. Inflation has come down from almost record highs (9.1%), but it is still more than twice as high as it was when Trump left office. 

But if things continue to get better, if food and gas prices fall back to more reasonable levels, it may take just enough votes away from Trump's best argument to win back the White House. 

If abortion remains an issue

The Supreme Court decision that ended Roe v. Wade may go down as the most impactful decision SCOTUS has ever made in terms of boosting one party over another at the ballot box. 

The 2022 midterm election was supposed to be a red wave for the GOP, but the abortion issue tipped enough races in swing districts throughout the country to turn it into a red ripple, while the Senate remained in Democratic hands despite most prognostications saying it would flip. 

The issue isn't as hot as it was in 2022, as several referendums in red states proved the court majority’s wisdom in terms of allowing voters to decide whether it should be legal in their respective states. Voters in Kansas, a deep-red state, rejected a measure to make abortion illegal, as did those in Ohio, a state which Trump twice won comfortably. 

The fear factor of not having access to abortion appears to have waned somewhat, but rest assured that the Biden campaign and Democrats across the country, along with some members of the media, will attempt to make it a top issue again in 2024. If they succeed, it could help flip enough votes in, say, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Arizona to make a difference in Biden's direction. 

If Trump is convicted 

Democrats are doing everything in their power to make this election a referendum not on President Biden but on the guy currently not in power — Trump. And we're not talking about economic, immigration or foreign policy stances by the former president, but about Trump as a person. 

Officials in Maine and in Colorado already have moved to keep Trump off the ballot due to the Jan. 6, 2021, riot in the Capitol; 32 other states have similar cases pending. 

The Supreme Court is likely to shoot down these efforts as having no real legal standing, according to many experts. But the federal and state legal cases continue against Trump, with Justice Department special council Jack Smith particularly focused on getting convictions on either the Mar-a-Lago classified documents case or the Jan. 6 case in which Smith contends Trump led an effort to overturn the 2020 election, before Americans go to the polls Nov. 5. 

If this all looks political, and if it feels like weaponization of the justice system to take out the odds-on favorite to win back the presidency, it's because it is. No matter: A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Trump leading Biden, 36% to 31% nationally, with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. taking 16% and with 17% saying they would either not vote or don't know who they ultimately will support. But when asked who they would vote for if Trump is a convicted felon, just 25% said they would vote for him. In a close race that will likely be decided by a few thousand votes across seven swing states, that's a death knell.

If an uneasy truce occurs in Gaza

Biden is hemorrhaging support among Muslim and young voters in crucial states like Michigan over his staunch support of Israel in its war against Hamas, as well as Hispanics and other key groups. Many young voters, who went decidedly to Biden in 2020, now back Trump in some polls. A recent survey of Muslim and Arab voters in Michigan conducted by Lake Research Partners shows just 16% would vote for Biden. 

But if the bombing stops and the war is removed from the front pages and nightly newscasts in the fall of 2024, the anti-Biden sentiment on this front may dissipate enough to bring many of those voters back to him again. Given that this brutal conflict may expand beyond Gaza in the coming year, however, this prospect should be considered an unlikely one. 

If Trump was a football team, he'd currently be more than a touchdown favorite to become the nation's 47th president. Yet the game is more than 42 weeks away. So much can change, as we witnessed with COVID engulfing the nation in March 2020 and completely altering the trajectory of the coming election. 

Biden needs several key factors to go his way — but most aren't out of the realm of possibility. Republicans would be wise not to underestimate the chances of a Biden 2.0 sequel.

Joe Concha is a media critic, politics and sports commentator, and a contributor on Fox News.