Why Putin Is Threatening to Move Russian Nukes to Belarus

In the early months of the war in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin and other top Russian officials made almost constant public references to the country’s nuclear arsenal, in a clear threat to western countries about the potential consequences of providing Ukraine with military assistance. In recent months, the nuclear threats from the Kremlin have become less frequent, even as international assistance to Ukraine has crossed one supposed “red line” after another - from tanks to fighter jets and long-range missiles.

But the saber-rattling made a comeback on Friday, when Putin said during a meeting with Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko that Russian tactical nuclear weapons would be deployed to Belarus after the “preparation of the relevant facilities ends on July 7-8.”

The latest announcement adds specificity to plans Lukashenko and Putin discussed in March to deploy Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus. Many nuclear experts have been skeptical that the storage facilities for these weapons would be completed in time, and Shannon Bugos, senior policy analyst at the Arms Control Association, said that even after Putin’s remarks Friday, some skepticism is still warranted.

“There remain numerous logistics [challenges], such as the complex transportation of the weapons themselves plus their associated specialized equipment, that will challenge the deployment on the current purported schedule,” she told the Messenger. 

Nuclear politics

Even if the weapons are deployed to Belarus, it’s not exactly clear that the move would give Russia any capabilities it doesn’t already have. As the past month’s barrage of missile strikes have amply demonstrated, Ukrainian cities and battlefield positions are well within range from Russia itself.

Instead, the purpose of the announcement is likely political. With Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive now underway, along with a series of attacks by anti-Kremlin Russian militants on Russian territory, Putin may feel it’s a good time to remind Ukraine’s western backers that the risk of nuclear war is still present. The Russian president also rarely passes up a chance to needle western countries for hypocrisy, and he noted after his original announcement back in March that by placing nuclear weapons in an allied country, Russia was merely doing what the United States has been “doing for decades.”

As for the role of Belarus, Lukashenko is a long-time Putin ally, though he has made occasional overtures to Europe in recent years. But particularly since the outbreak of mass protests in Belarus in 2020, Lukashenko has become increasingly dependent on Russian economic and security assistance. In January 2022, Russia deployed troops to Belarus for what turned out to be the early stages of the invasion of Ukraine. Despite numerous warnings from Western officials, Belarusian troops have not actually joined in the fighting in Ukraine, but the nuclear announcement is one more indication of Putin’s control over at least one of his neighbors.

The move carries political risks for Russia as well. Russia would be violating a pledge made after the meeting between Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping in March, when the two governments issued a communique stating that “all nuclear-weapon states should refrain from deploying nuclear weapons abroad and withdraw nuclear weapons deployed abroad.” The “no-limits” friendship between China and Russia does apparently have a few limits. 

Ongoing threat

Even if the rhetoric from Moscow is less heated now than it was during the early stages of this war, the threat of nuclear war continues to hang over this conflict. This was underlined in a different way last week when the Biden administration announced that it was partially suspending its participation in the New START nuclear arms control treaty with Russia, in retaliation for Russia’s suspension of the treaty in February. This means that at a time of heightened conflict, the two countries with the world’s largest nuclear arsenals are no longer carrying out the type of notifications and communication that were previously meant to prevent a deadly miscalculation. 

As the ACA’s Bugos noted, even if Putin’s Belarus move does not in and of itself increase the nuclear danger, it’s one more reminder that “the threat of nuclear weapons use during Russia's war on Ukraine does exist.”