Taiwan’s top diplomat fears “dangerous” decision-making in Beijing

As Taiwan prepares for a possible conflict with China, its top diplomat is worried about the dangers of one-man rule in Beijing. 

“In China, any kind of recommendation that is not in line with the thinking of the top leader is going to be taken away,” said Foreign Minister Joseph Wu. “Under these kinds of circumstances, the decision-making can be very dangerous.”

Asked whether China’s President Xi Jinping is rational, Wu told a group of international reporters last week “Your guess is probably as good as mine. If you think Xi Jinping is crazy, he is crazy. But I would say the problem for the Chinese decision-making right now is authoritarianism.”

The possibility that Xi would act on China’s long-standing threat to use force to “reunify” with Taiwan has triggered alarm in the U.S., Taiwan and throughout the region. China has claimed sovereignty over Taiwan for decades, but a deteriorating U.S.-China relationship, growing Chinese military aggression, and robust American political and military support for Taiwan have escalated tensions. Those tensions reached a fever pitch after former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan last August, and China responded with military exercises that simulated a full blockade of the island.

China has since maintained that it seeks a peaceful “reunification” with Taiwan and Taiwanese officials say that they will not provoke conflict. But Wu said that while Taiwan remains open to dialogue on its terms, deterring China also means preparing for the worst-case scenario.  

“If they consider Taiwan to be weak, they might use force against Taiwan,” Wu said, “and under these kinds of circumstances we need to beef up our defense capabilities.”

Preparing for an invasion 

In practice, preparing for war has meant Taiwan is expanding its military training, from four months of mandatory service to one year starting in 2024. Taiwan has also increased its military budget in recent years, raising it by 14 percent in 2022, and used that money to buy billions of dollars of weapons from the U.S.

However, military experts say Taiwan still has a lot of work to do to ready its defenses. In a March interview with the Japan Times, former Taiwan military chief Admiral Lee His-min said, “The short answer is we are not ready, particularly if we consider the growing offensive capabilities of the Chinese military and the rapid pace at which they have been modernizing in recent years.” Recent war games conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) showed the Taiwanese military would fail to repel a Chinese invasion; the U.S. and other countries would have to come to Taiwan’s aid.

Wu stressed that the Taiwanese people “are determined to defend ourselves,” but he acknowledged the importance of garnering more international support for Taiwan’s cause and argued that other countries should be concerned about the fate of the Taiwan Strait.

“If Taiwan is attacked by China,” Wu said, “the kinds of impact upon the rest of the world are going to be very serious." 

Wu and other Taiwanese officials have made the case that the global economy would be badly damaged by a Chinese attack. Some 50 percent of global trade, including Taiwan’s outsized production of semiconductors, moves through the Taiwan Strait.

Drawing parallels to Ukraine

Wu also presented Taiwan’s situation as part of a larger struggle between democracies and authoritarian countries.

"We feel that the world is one theater,” Wu said. Referring to Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin, he added that ”two autocrats seem to be working with each other and therefore any kind of result in the war in Ukraine. or the Russian invasion of Ukraine, is also going to impact the Indo-Pacific. And therefore we hope that Europe can continue to support Ukraine to defeat the Russians.” 

Such support, Wu said, would “send a very clear signal to China that any kind of invasion or aggression against another democracy is not going to be tolerated by NATO."

It’s unclear whether an attack on Taiwan would draw the level of aid Ukraine has seen from NATO. The U.S. has built up its military and diplomatic strength in the region surrounding Taiwan; recently, the Philippines said it would grant the U.S. access to four military bases, two of which are in the north of the country, roughly 250 miles away from Taiwan’s southern tip. Meanwhile the U.S. has also bolstered ties with South Korea and Japan – the CSIS war games showed that the use of Japan’s bases would be essential for the U.S. to successfully aid Taiwan during a Chinese invasion.

As G7 leaders gather in Japan this week for their annual summit, Taiwan is hoping to hear more pledges of support. 

“Their joint statement – if they mention the peace and stability over the Taiwan Strait, or their opposition to the unilateral change of status quo, or other languages of support for Taiwan,” Wu told The Messenger, “I think China is going to understand that Taiwan is not alone.”